- Snapman wrote:
- actually I just met a t4l guy at a holiday party recently who has been t4l since 1995. There are some years where he will only trade in high volumes for 3-4 months and then stop. Other years are more consistent and spread out evenly. From what i understood he may have not moved millions but he certainly was moving in the high 6 digits. And he at least on the minimum made 12-15% a month averaged out.
Hey Snapman, I guess the guy you met who's made 12-15% per month since 1995 came out from a chimney at the party, had a white beard and a red hat like that :
More seriously, I'd say firstly that a performance of 12-15% a MONTH is far above the 30-40% per year I indicated.
Now, let's assume this guy has made 12% per month from 1995 to 2009: he would have multiplied his initial capital by 185,621,298 (=1.12^(12 *14)-1) over these 14 years should he let the money compound in his trading account and not spend it to live. It means if he started with an initial capital of $1,000, he would now have a wealth of around $200 billion (which is roughly the aggregated wealth of the Forbes top 5), with a starting capital of $10,000 he would have today around 2 trillion, roughly the amount of the currencies reserve of the China, we're talking about a 13-digit figure. So let me be a bit skeptical about his performance...
Note that in this example, if he has spent on a regular basis for a living all or most of the profits he earned from his trading, his account would be after 14 years not far from his initial capital (that makes at the end a few billions/trillions difference whether he has withdrawed or not): that highlights my point when I argued that when you trade for a living, you don't let the compound interests play in your favor as you spend your earnings to live.
Now the equity you need to trade for a living is not rocket science: if you target a performance of 20% per year (and believe me, it's quite hard to achieve) and if you need, say, $1,000 per week to live, you'll need to have an equity of: $1,000*52/20%=$260,000 (assuming your trading profits are tax free, otherwise double).
Keep in mind that if you have an average performance of 30-40% per year over the long run, say a decade, you're among the trading legends. I know, I know, everywhere you have guys arguing they do much better and found a method to turn 10,000 in a million overnight. First those guys have a low probability of survival in the long run secondly we would know about them and they would be famous as in a few years they would be among the wealthiest people on earth. There was a guy in France, Sylvain Duport, who became a bit famous a few years ago as he won a stock trading game 2 years in a row. That was a 6-month contest and the first year he multiplied his equity by 37 or so and the second year by almost 80 .... (a shame for him that was paper gains...), a few things:
- He himself confessed he would not have achieved such performances with real money. To be in the top with this kind of contests you must take all the risks and have a high probability to go "broke" in which case, you just reset your account and start again, in the real life it's a bit different...
- After he made it, he was pitched by plenty of investment banks and hedge funds. In the latest news I saw on him he joined a hedge fund. So we have here the example of a guy who has the skill to make a performance close to 8000% in 6 months who chooses the security of a pay check and the rat race
- You'll always find the example of a guy who wins at the lottery then a guy who wins two weeks in a row,.... But I wouldn't account on this kind of odds to plan how I make money for a living