Short in the Fall, Long in the Rise... always better than the opposite @ The Eye of Sauros

Rare enough to be noticed: I’ve been in tune with the markets since the beginning of year and I’ve had a good timing trading the swings of the European stock indices: short in the fall, long in the rise so far… it's always better than the opposite.

In a previous post, I was telling that the moment to go back long would come very soon and that patience was needed. Inevitably, I haven’t had the patience to wait and took the profit on my remaining short position as soon as that post was published. As you know (if you have read the previous post): when I’m not short, I’m long. After all, my contrarian play taking the opposite position to the Crowd that then seemed bearish regarding Europe sounds not that bad as it allowed me to put on a position not far from the reversal (at least a local one), see?

Another point I’ve been raising here and at the Hand of Scalpuman our trading forums for a while now is that IMHO the Name of the Game in the current environment, at least in the West and Japan (maybe in China but it doesn't want to confess), is still “the one with the weakest currency wins”. Thus, to me, the “PIIGS crisis” and the stress on the EUR at the beginning of the year would ultimately benefit the most to Germany. Seeing a EURUSD around 1.35, I could not help putting on an extra long position, this time on the DAX, the German stock index, as shown in the chart below (green circles).




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