Analyze Capital Trading Contest Update: 12.29.09

http://groupanlz.blogspot.com/2009/12/trading-game-contest-update-122909.html



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Trading Game Contest Update: 12.29.09








Jet lagged out of my mind, so might as well do some work...

Looks
like the markets are going against everyone who is actively trading.
The cash holders/non-traders are still in the lead with Dextor and
Clark leading once again.

Trrodeli

Surprisingly
in third place the underdog trrodeli is holding down third place. This
is probably a reflection of his diversified portfolio over 4 equities
of INTC, BAC, GE and NKE. Having four industry distinct equities may
have helped him reduce the volatility in his portfolio.

On a
technical picture, it seems GE and BAC are against him short term.
While NKE and INTC have potential for breakout stocks (breaking of
resistence) to the upside in a short time frame (1-2 weeks). Overall
this may leave his portfolio at the same levels as they are now over
the next few weeks.

Mico4578

In
fourth place Mico has a small amount of capital in NVDA. Overall, on a
technical basis NVDA has potential to garner profits, however in the
short term it is in mid correction and will be hurting Mico performance
in the interim. For the given time frame, if Mico wishes to increase
his risk he could invest more in NVDA or create some more tech oriented
plays involving peers or competitors.


lealex48

In
fifth place I finally have made a right call in my position correcting
itself. 200 SMA is acting as beautiful support. I don't expect this to
be a smooth correction. It is tempting to cut my losses now as I have
recovered 50%+ of my losses at this point and reassessing new entry
points. But in the short term my system analysis is telling me price
momentum is to the upside in the short term.

I will try and watch the charts closes and avoiding another trading disaster such as my "C" <-- (click here)> trade from the last game.


Dark_Trader

It
looks like the Dark traders C position is starting to correct itself.
Just like my EUR position, entry timing was poor. Both trades could
have been vastly improved with more careful technical entry analysis.

Overall,
though short term is starting to look attractive. I see prices having
room to the upside to 3.72 before encountering resistance. Which means
Dark_Trader may recover 100% profits and may make a 7.5% profit.
Unfortunately the C position is only about 13% of the value of the
portfolio.

His major position of UNG moved further against him
from 10.68 (when I last reported) to 10.85 on a short position.
However, short term the picture is slowly starting to correct, though I
still believe a bit of room to the upside (via RSI). All in all, it is
possible he can recover 90% of his trade to the low 10's when UNG
corrects, the big question is if he believes prices can break below 50
day SMA. If not perhaps this is a bottom for nat gas? (watch the higher
highs). If prices break below support perhaps he can end up in profit
though the odds are against him on the technical side or are at least
more to the ambiguous side.



So there are your update brief trading technical tips:






"May the trade be with you"




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Alexander Lê
Analyze Capital LLC
Managing Partner
email: le.alex48@gmail.com

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****note from management****


The managing partners are currently abroad extending networks across the UK and Eastern Europe.


We
apologize ahead of time for the slow responses to blog comments and
lack of posts. Though come mid January we will resume the normal
schedule and updates.



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If there are any urgent matters forward emails to one of the partners:


Analyze Capital LLC
Managing Partners
Alexander Lê: le.alex48@gmail.com
Pat Ambrus: ambrus.anlzgroup@gmail.com
Clark Chu: zhuzihao@googlemail.com