China's Industrial Weakness Likely to have Continued

China's Industrial Weakness Likely to have Continued


-China is scheduled to release August growth data on 9 September, and trade and monetary data over 10-15 September. We expect the data to indicate continued industrial weakness in August, with industrial production growth slowing to 9.0% y/y from 9.2% in July. Consumer spending probably remained robust, with retail sales growth likely unchanged at 13.1% y/y.
-We expect fixed investment growth to have increased to 20.6% y/y in August from 20.4% in July thanks to central and local governments' easing policies. We believe consumer price inflation was higher in August at 2.3% y/y (1.8% in July), owing to higher food prices after adverse weather affected the food supply and transport. Pork prices have bottomed out since July.