The EURUSD thread

Via DailyFX.com:

Fundamental Outlook for US Dollar: Bullish

- US Dollar searches for direction through unstable risk trends and policy forecasts
- Fed surprises rate hawks by keeping its vow to maintain rates at an “exceptionally low” level for an “extended period”
- Does a late reversal in the US dollar set up a true revival for the currency’s sidelined bull trend?


A critical assessment of the dollar’s reaction to sentiment trends these past few weeks reveals something interesting. Not only has the greenback maintained its appeal as a safe haven; but perhaps it is also starting to garner an interest amongst the speculative set for yield potential. This potentially significant – but no doubt measured – development found a rational argument in the price action of last few weeks. Through much of March, sentiment has slowly improved while speculative positioning climbed more aggressively than should realistically have been supported by the fundamental backdrop. Through this period, the dollar would slowly ease off its nine-month highs; but it would conspicuously avoid a true reversal. Then, at the end of this past week, as risk appetite started to retrace, the safe haven currency would step up to the plate with a leveraged advance. If it is indeed the case that the greenback will be prized for its financial stability and tolerated/acquired through a rise in risk appetite, the dollar could soon revive its larger bull trend.

The lynchpin to the dollar’s ability to span both extremes of the risk spectrum is the interest rate outlook. The United States is already considered to be ahead of the curve for economic recovery; however, the implications
expansion has for yield (or expected returns on capital invested in the US) requires tangible results. On this front, the forecast for monetary policy has improved considerably over just the past few weeks. In fact, overnight index swaps from Credit Suisse are pricing in approximately 88 basis points worth of rate hikes over the coming 12 months – the most hawkish forecast in a month and notably more bullish than the outlook for the ECB or BoE. This establishes pace; but establishing a stable role for the dollar at the upper echelons of the yield curve is the timing of the first rate hike. This past week, the Federal Reserve discouraged rate hawks by maintaining its warning that rates would remain “exceptionally low” for an “extended period.” However, this does not necessarily put the dollar at a disadvantage. The removal of this phraseology would likely set expectations for the first tightening of the Fed Funds rate to a time frame of two to four meetings following the announcement. This matches up reasonably well with the remarks being dropped at the April gathering given Fed Fund futures have priced in approximately a 50 percent probability of a hike in September and a 67 percent chance of rates rising to at least 0.50 percent by November. In the meantime, the FOMC continues to tighten the policy reins in other areas. Lending facilities established to support liquidity through the financial crisis are scheduled to expire at the end of the month and speculation is running high of a follow up hike to the
discount lending rate.

While rate speculation develops in the background, the dollar will remain especially sensitive to large swings in sentiment trends. Looking ahead to next week, there are potential catalysts for the UK (the 2011 budget release) and Euro Zone (the deadline for a Greek bailout plan). Beyond these known events, it would not be out of the question to see an unexpected progress report from China on its asset bubble, the US on its deficit fight or one of the credit rating agencies. Given the capital markets’ rise to new highs recently, the scene is ripe for a bolt of uncertainty to shake unabashed speculative build up. In the meantime, the US docket itself is light. The Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index is notable for its scope; but it lacks market moving impact. The same can be said about the durable goods and home sales figures – though all this data should be mentally processed for its impact on growth expectations. - JK

Who is long the EUR from here out? anyone else thinks recent dollar weakness is a temporary pull back?

Snapman wrote:

Who is long the EUR from here out? anyone else thinks recent dollar weakness is a temporary pull back?

Hey Snapman, I still can't understand why the US let a strong dollar without reacting by a way or another.
This said I'm still aside from the EURUSD as I've been lately finding it to difficult to trade as the FX markets more generally. I'm still focusing on the stock indices mainly.

Sauros wrote:

Snapman wrote:

Who is long the EUR from here out? anyone else thinks recent dollar weakness is a temporary pull back?

Hey Snapman, I still can't understand why the US let a strong dollar without reacting by a way or another.
This said I'm still aside from the EURUSD as I've been lately finding it to difficult to trade as the FX markets more generally. I'm still focusing on the stock indices mainly.

Very true, though this time reminds me when a few months ago the summer central banking thesis we were trading got out of whack.

Perhaps we are in for another trend change? I remember clearly because i got burned so bad on the EUR haha.

I know the index and dollar correlation isn't as usual these days... we should start a thread for index trades! ive been quite active in anaylzing the SPX... been dead wrong the past month but my price target has been right ... *sigh

Snapman wrote:

Sauros wrote:

Snapman wrote:

Who is long the EUR from here out? anyone else thinks recent dollar weakness is a temporary pull back?

Hey Snapman, I still can't understand why the US let a strong dollar without reacting by a way or another.
This said I'm still aside from the EURUSD as I've been lately finding it to difficult to trade as the FX markets more generally. I'm still focusing on the stock indices mainly.

Very true, though this time reminds me when a few months ago the summer central banking thesis we were trading got out of whack.

Perhaps we are in for another trend change? I remember clearly because i got burned so bad on the EUR haha.

I know the index and dollar correlation isn't as usual these days... we should start a thread for index trades! ive been quite active in anaylzing the SPX... been dead wrong the past month but my price target has been right ... *sigh

Forget about the index and EURUSD correlation, it had been working last year for a few months but it ended in early december (I made quite good profits on the short side from 1.47 to 1.42 playing precisely the break of this correlation, if you can't remember just scroll up, it's discussed on this very same thread )

Now what I meant here is the rally of the stock was a kind of no-brainer and I made huge profits trading heavily on the long side (I added 5 or 6 times, i don't have my blotter handy, to my initial long position and doubled the money on my stock indices bucket, that's a +100%+ in a few weeks ). Why ? Because in our assumption, the weak dollar helped the stock's rally last year, so once the dollar strengthened, should there be a correction on stock indices, there would be some room to weaken back the USD and support the stocks again. In other words: no correction can have steam

Basically what I meant is I had no idea where the EURUSD could go (and I really didn't care), the only thing I knew is the stocks would go up... (it's the topic of a few of my previous posts on the blog)

This said, the argument is still valid...

Sauros wrote:

Snapman wrote:

Sauros wrote:

Snapman wrote:

Who is long the EUR from here out? anyone else thinks recent dollar weakness is a temporary pull back?

Hey Snapman, I still can't understand why the US let a strong dollar without reacting by a way or another.
This said I'm still aside from the EURUSD as I've been lately finding it to difficult to trade as the FX markets more generally. I'm still focusing on the stock indices mainly.

Very true, though this time reminds me when a few months ago the summer central banking thesis we were trading got out of whack.

Perhaps we are in for another trend change? I remember clearly because i got burned so bad on the EUR haha.

I know the index and dollar correlation isn't as usual these days... we should start a thread for index trades! ive been quite active in anaylzing the SPX... been dead wrong the past month but my price target has been right ... *sigh

Forget about the index and EURUSD correlation, it had been working last year for a few months but it ended in early december (I made quite good profits on the short side from 1.47 to 1.42 playing precisely the break of this correlation, if you can't remember just scroll up, it's discussed on this very same thread )

Now what I meant here is the rally of the stock was a kind of no-brainer and I made huge profits trading heavily on the long side (I added 5 or 6 times, i don't have my blotter handy, to my initial long position and doubled the money on my stock indices bucket, that's a +100%+ in a few weeks ). Why ? Because in our assumption, the weak dollar helped the stock's rally last year, so once the dollar strengthened, should there be a correction on stock indices, there would be some room to weaken back the USD and support the stocks again. In other words: no correction can have steam

Basically what I meant is I had no idea where the EURUSD could go (and I really didn't care), the only thing I knew is the stocks would go up... (it's the topic of a few of my previous posts on the blog)

This said, the argument is still valid...

Well I remember the intial HUGE drop i forget what day a few months back on the EUR, I know you did very well on that trade.

With the whole greek situation, since it blew up, it was kinda obvious that fundamentally the eur should continue down as long as the bearish sentiment about the situation remained in the markets..

It has let up some what but fundamentally they still have a long way to go in showing any improvements in the EUROZONE.. Lets not forget about the other pigs...

id still say there is considerable downside risk at the moment..

just imho !

I caught a nice upswing on the EUR, but im really interested if this is a bottom more indicative of a much bigger upswing within a down trend, or if it is just a straight up trend change.

Either way it is a big opportunity to make some good trades if the down trend doesn't resume.

where are your thoughts!?

Snapman wrote:

I caught a nice upswing on the EUR, but im really interested if this is a bottom more indicative of a much bigger upswing within a down trend, or if it is just a straight up trend change.

Either way it is a big opportunity to make some good trades if the down trend doesn't resume.

where are your thoughts!?

from jimrogers-investments.blogspot.com

Everybody is so bearish about the euro that it looks like now is a good time to buy the single European currency, Jim Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings, told CNBC Thursday. The only big bull markets Rogers sees in the next decade is commodities and he suggests having real assets such as cotton, silver and natural gas for protection in these markets

Batman wrote:

Snapman wrote:

I caught a nice upswing on the EUR, but im really interested if this is a bottom more indicative of a much bigger upswing within a down trend, or if it is just a straight up trend change.

Either way it is a big opportunity to make some good trades if the down trend doesn't resume.

where are your thoughts!?

from jimrogers-investments.blogspot.com

Everybody is so bearish about the euro that it looks like now is a good time to buy the single European currency, Jim Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings, told CNBC Thursday. The only big bull markets Rogers sees in the next decade is commodities and he suggests having real assets such as cotton, silver and natural gas for protection in these markets

LOOL reading this is so bloody hilaorious… I thinkg buying this "now" was severely under appreciated advice back then. I should just held on to that position all the way up to 1.41… damn fml

Snapman wrote:

LOOL reading this is so bloody hilaorious… I thinkg buying this "now" was severely under appreciated advice back then. I should just held on to that position all the way up to 1.41… damn fml

The old man has still good (contrarian) reflexes, well done.

EURUSD thread the revival! I'll come back soon

Sauros wrote:

Snapman wrote:

LOOL reading this is so bloody hilaorious… I thinkg buying this "now" was severely under appreciated advice back then. I should just held on to that position all the way up to 1.41… damn fml

The old man has still good (contrarian) reflexes, well done.

EURUSD thread the revival! I'll come back soon

yea we will see, if things get cleaner for sure, im favoring looking at other pairs right now though, where the trend is more clear wiht less noise

New year new thread. Let's try to revive it!

I suggest we re-start the discussion on the EURUSD from Pat's latest post :
The hard decision : EUR/USD

I'd agree that the technical and chart landscape seems to indicate the pair is to go south. The only comment I'd have on your chart analysis Pat regards the 3rd chart : the "classical" chart analysis suggests that in a triangle, when the break is too close to the angle (or if after roughly 2 thirds of the triangle, there was no break) the pattern is unvalidated.

This said, I'm currently pretty reluctant to get in the pair but I think that if I had to I would go on the long side if I can see some strength further to today's big move up. 2 main reasons: the first because the fall of the EUR seems too obvious, the whole herd is seeing its fall imminently: a lot has been discounted. The second is the battle around the 200-sma for me has not settled yet, the obstacle is so important that we can see deep breaches, various fakes out before we can consider it broke or it held. But once again, I don't have a clear view on the star pair and my mind can easily change.

Sauros wrote:

New year new thread. Let's try to revive it!

I suggest we re-start the discussion on the EURUSD from Pat's latest post :
The hard decision : EUR/USD

I'd agree that the technical and chart landscape seems to indicate the pair is to go south. The only comment I'd have on your chart analysis Pat regards the 3rd chart : the "classical" chart analysis suggests that in a triangle, when the break is too close to the angle (or if after roughly 2 thirds of the triangle, there was no break) the pattern is unvalidated.

This said, I'm currently pretty reluctant to get in the pair but I think that if I had to I would go on the long side if I can see some strength further to today's big move up. 2 main reasons: the first because the fall of the EUR seems too obvious, the whole herd is seeing its fall imminently: a lot has been discounted. The second is the battle around the 200-sma for me has not settled yet, the obstacle is so important that we can see deep breaches, various fakes out before we can consider it broke or it held. But once again, I don't have a clear view on the star pair and my mind can easily change.

Good thoughts in reviving this old friend from the cemetery. Perhaps you are correct in the break (unvalidated) on the 3rd chart. We should receive more clarity on the issue today. The bulls won this round in resolute and boisterous fashion, but how many shorts were taken out is the question? And will those shorts have an appetite today? The 200 day will again be tested by the bears and a break ought to provide the impetus for a possible reversal and 1.3000 psychological test.

Tomorrow I like Initial Jobless claims against ECB rate decision and Paella + Antipasti debt auctions. Maybe we see below 400k claims? If this is truly a buy the rumor sell the news perhaps the rumor was Japanese and Chinese governments running to aid the europeans, while the news will be ECB buys Spanish and Italian Bonds and bloats its dry balance sheet with more malignant paper.

The Market wants Spain to receive a bail-out, it is only a matter of time (unless the Germans put their foot down and willingly unravel the 'fabric of the EUR'). Also, what is curious to me which many have not begun to discuss yet is if a bail-out does materialize, what will be the impact on Spain's credit rating? Receive EFSF funds and get cut to junk seems to be the new aphorism. Through all this, we may see a test of the 50 day, and if this happens I will swiftly change my views. In lieu, the wise move for me will be to sit and wait and let my emotions dissipate.

To quote our friend Mr. Soros again, 'The financial markets generally are unpredictable. So that one has to have different scenarios... The idea that you can actually predict what's going to happen contradicts my way of looking at the market.'

Lord Keynes provides wisdom to our ears as well 'Markets can remain illogical far rather than you or I can remain Solvent'

Additionally, I still like the 1.3000-1.34000 consolidation box. Furthermore if 1.34000 is taken on the upside I will surely position accordingly.

IFRMarkets EUR/USD Trading page as of Jan 13

[Level] [Technical Significance]
1.3215 61.8% Of 1.3435 - 1.2860
1.3200 Psychological Level
1.3191 30-Day M/A Line
1.3170 Daily High Jan 6
1.3140 11:30 GMT THU 13 JAN
1.3088 Today Session Low
1.3069 200-Day M/A Line
1.3022 Daily High Jan 7
1.3000 Psychological Level

[CURRENT TRADE]
[Position] LONG @ 1.3106
[Open] 1/12 5:30
[Target] 1.3390
[Stop] 1.3080


[Stop Raised to 1.3080] The market continues the recovery from 1.2860 (2011 low, posted January 10), extending beyond 1.3145 (Wednesday's high). The near-term scope is for gains towards the 30-day moving average (1.3191), above which will accelerate gains further towards our 1.3390 target (just below 1.3400 psychological level). (MM) [09:27 GMT]

Sauros wrote:

This said, I'm currently pretty reluctant to get in the pair but I think that if I had to I would go on the long side if I can see some strength further to today's big move up. 2 main reasons: the first because the fall of the EUR seems too obvious, the whole herd is seeing its fall imminently: a lot has been discounted. The second is the battle around the 200-sma for me has not settled yet, the obstacle is so important that we can see deep breaches, various fakes out before we can consider it broke or it held. But once again, I don't have a clear view on the star pair and my mind can easily change.

Wow! jump of 300 pips up today to the doors of 1.34 thanks to our old friend Trichet who sees inflation everywhere...
See what I meant about where to go when the crowd is on one side of the boat ? Unfortunately I didn't manage to get on board, my margin was stuck with a SPX position. Now I cut it (with a decent profit) and am waiting for the time to catch the EUR train.
After such a movement, unless the move is strongly corrected in the next few sessions I'll be in long.
Let's see

Sauros wrote:

Sauros wrote:

This said, I'm currently pretty reluctant to get in the pair but I think that if I had to I would go on the long side if I can see some strength further to today's big move up. 2 main reasons: the first because the fall of the EUR seems too obvious, the whole herd is seeing its fall imminently: a lot has been discounted. The second is the battle around the 200-sma for me has not settled yet, the obstacle is so important that we can see deep breaches, various fakes out before we can consider it broke or it held. But once again, I don't have a clear view on the star pair and my mind can easily change.

Wow! jump of 300 pips up today to the doors of 1.34 thanks to our old friend Trichet who sees inflation everywhere...
See what I meant about where to go when the crowd is on one side of the boat ? Unfortunately I didn't manage to get on board, my margin was stuck with a SPX position. Now I cut it (with a decent profit) and am waiting for the time to catch the EUR train.
After such a movement, unless the move is strongly corrected in the next few sessions I'll be in long.
Let's see

I see what you mean. 1.340 shall be important moving forward. 2 other things I'm focused on: 1. 50 SMA 2. new shorts- if all the shorts have been stopped then once the selling starts no willing buyers will exist and we could see a major reversal.

I have a buy set-up @ 1.3410...

NatGasTrader wrote:

I see what you mean. 1.340 shall be important moving forward. 2 other things I'm focused on: 1. 50 SMA 2. new shorts- if all the shorts have been stopped then once the selling starts no willing buyers will exist and we could see a major reversal.

I have a buy set-up @ 1.3410...

1.345 this morning so now you are probably in! Me too at around the same level.
The trick is I believe you DO need a crowd of guys who say "it's way too high, it's going to correct" all along the way up to feed the path with new stops to be taken.

Sauros wrote:

NatGasTrader wrote:

I see what you mean. 1.340 shall be important moving forward. 2 other things I'm focused on: 1. 50 SMA 2. new shorts- if all the shorts have been stopped then once the selling starts no willing buyers will exist and we could see a major reversal.

I have a buy set-up @ 1.3410...

1.345 this morning so now you are probably in! Me too at around the same level.
The trick is I believe you DO need a crowd of guys who say "it's way too high, it's going to correct" all along the way up to feed the path with new stops to be taken.

Back to 1.3320... I definitely have known better entries ...

Sauros wrote:

Sauros wrote:

NatGasTrader wrote:

I see what you mean. 1.340 shall be important moving forward. 2 other things I'm focused on: 1. 50 SMA 2. new shorts- if all the shorts have been stopped then once the selling starts no willing buyers will exist and we could see a major reversal.

I have a buy set-up @ 1.3410...

1.345 this morning so now you are probably in! Me too at around the same level.
The trick is I believe you DO need a crowd of guys who say "it's way too high, it's going to correct" all along the way up to feed the path with new stops to be taken.

Back to 1.3320... I definitely have known better entries ...

Are you still long? Some Tech guys call for 1.3580 as the 50.0 Fib level that should be taken out to continue our rally. Does 1.3450 become support now? We look to the Asian open to dictate the pace once again. I'm still long the EUR/CHF...

IFR Forex Watch
EUR/USD Trading Page Jan 24th 7:35 GMT

[Level] [Technical Significance]
1.3826 Daily High Nov 10
1.3786 Daily High Nov 22
1.3739 61.8% Of 1.4283 - 1.2860
1.3663 Upper 21 Day Bolli Band
1.3556 11:30 GMT MON 24 JAN
1.3449 Daily Low Jan 21
1.3396 Daily Low Jan 20
1.3370 10-Day MA Line
1.3367 Daily Low Jan 19

[CURRENT TRADE]
[Position] LONG @ 1.3600
[Open] 1/24 12:25
[Target] 1.3725
[Stop] 1.3550


[Longs Set For 1.3725] 1.3648 capped overnight and price has eased away from the highs. Hourly studies are now close to oversold levels and we could see some further rebound action in favor of the long trade. The price has been moving up with the rising upper 21 day Bolli band today at 1.3662, which leaves the daily studies heading higher with room to extend. (AS) [07:35 GMT]

NatGasTrader wrote:

Are you still long? Some Tech guys call for 1.3580 as the 50.0 Fib level that should be taken out to continue our rally. Does 1.3450 become support now? We look to the Asian open to dictate the pace once again. I'm still long the EUR/CHF...

I got out of my long a bit below 1.36 as the week ended but still bullish and I'm waiting for some strength up to get back in. I want fist to see if the 150-pip move we saw on friday holds or is erased (say if we're below 1.35 in the next few days).

Scalpuman wrote:

IFR Forex Watch
EUR/USD Trading Page Jan 24th 7:35 GMT

[Level] [Technical Significance]
1.3826 Daily High Nov 10
1.3786 Daily High Nov 22
1.3739 61.8% Of 1.4283 - 1.2860
1.3663 Upper 21 Day Bolli Band
1.3556 11:30 GMT MON 24 JAN
1.3449 Daily Low Jan 21
1.3396 Daily Low Jan 20
1.3370 10-Day MA Line
1.3367 Daily Low Jan 19

[CURRENT TRADE]
[Position] LONG @ 1.3600
[Open] 1/24 12:25
[Target] 1.3725
[Stop] 1.3550


[Longs Set For 1.3725] 1.3648 capped overnight and price has eased away from the highs. Hourly studies are now close to oversold levels and we could see some further rebound action in favor of the long trade. The price has been moving up with the rising upper 21 day Bolli band today at 1.3662, which leaves the daily studies heading higher with room to extend. (AS) [07:35 GMT]

Looks like these guys just got gunned

NatGasTrader wrote:

Scalpuman wrote:

IFR Forex Watch
EUR/USD Trading Page Jan 24th 7:35 GMT

[Level] [Technical Significance]
1.3826 Daily High Nov 10
1.3786 Daily High Nov 22
1.3739 61.8% Of 1.4283 - 1.2860
1.3663 Upper 21 Day Bolli Band
1.3556 11:30 GMT MON 24 JAN
1.3449 Daily Low Jan 21
1.3396 Daily Low Jan 20
1.3370 10-Day MA Line
1.3367 Daily Low Jan 19

[CURRENT TRADE]
[Position] LONG @ 1.3600
[Open] 1/24 12:25
[Target] 1.3725
[Stop] 1.3550


[Longs Set For 1.3725] 1.3648 capped overnight and price has eased away from the highs. Hourly studies are now close to oversold levels and we could see some further rebound action in favor of the long trade. The price has been moving up with the rising upper 21 day Bolli band today at 1.3662, which leaves the daily studies heading higher with room to extend. (AS) [07:35 GMT]

Looks like these guys just got gunned

Yeah, for once it's not me !
I could remember I spent weeks using them as contrarian indicator in few different cases : for instance, when they waited for a pull back to go in, you had to get in straight. it worked pretty well
What is good with them is they genarlly have a good idea where the stops are.

IFRF Forex Watch - EUR/USD Trading Page - Jan 31st

[Level] [Technical Significance]
1.3826 Daily High Nov 10
1.3786 Daily High Nov 22
1.3760 Daily High Jan 27
1.3667 Intraday Support Jan 27
1.3633 09:50 GMT MON 31 JAN
1.3570 Hourly Low Jan 31
1.3540 Daily Low Jan 24
1.3500 100-Day MA
1.3449 Daily Low Jan 21


[CURRENT TRADE]
[Position] SHORT @ 1.3635
[Open] 1/31 7:46
[Target] 1.3500
[Stop] 1.3700


[Short At 1.3635, Tight Stops] The five day sequence of higher highs ended on Friday, as the price slipped to 1.3580 and extended in early Asia to 1.3570. Corrective rebounds have been underway since finding support at the latter and price now tests close to first resistance. There was a sell strategy at 1.3635 thus we have taken the page short with relatively tight [07:46 GMT]

Scalpuman wrote:

IFRF Forex Watch - EUR/USD Trading Page - Jan 31st

[Level] [Technical Significance]
1.3826 Daily High Nov 10
1.3786 Daily High Nov 22
1.3760 Daily High Jan 27
1.3667 Intraday Support Jan 27
1.3633 09:50 GMT MON 31 JAN
1.3570 Hourly Low Jan 31
1.3540 Daily Low Jan 24
1.3500 100-Day MA
1.3449 Daily Low Jan 21


[CURRENT TRADE]
[Position] SHORT @ 1.3635
[Open] 1/31 7:46
[Target] 1.3500
[Stop] 1.3700


[Short At 1.3635, Tight Stops] The five day sequence of higher highs ended on Friday, as the price slipped to 1.3580 and extended in early Asia to 1.3570. Corrective rebounds have been underway since finding support at the latter and price now tests close to first resistance. There was a sell strategy at 1.3635 thus we have taken the page short with relatively tight [07:46 GMT]

Time to get long now ....In some seriousness, as long as we stay below 1.374-5 level (61.8 fib from last top) we shall see choppy trading and maybe lower. Hard to say though. This week as you like to call it is "the week." Tie that in with North Africa and imminent PBC rate hike and you get some very volatile trading....This may be perfect for your new system

Scalpuman wrote:

IFRF Forex Watch - EUR/USD Trading Page - Jan 31st

[Level] [Technical Significance]
1.3826 Daily High Nov 10
1.3786 Daily High Nov 22
1.3760 Daily High Jan 27
1.3667 Intraday Support Jan 27
1.3633 09:50 GMT MON 31 JAN
1.3570 Hourly Low Jan 31
1.3540 Daily Low Jan 24
1.3500 100-Day MA
1.3449 Daily Low Jan 21


[CURRENT TRADE]
[Position] SHORT @ 1.3635
[Open] 1/31 7:46
[Target] 1.3500
[Stop] 1.3700


[Short At 1.3635, Tight Stops] The five day sequence of higher highs ended on Friday, as the price slipped to 1.3580 and extended in early Asia to 1.3570. Corrective rebounds have been underway since finding support at the latter and price now tests close to first resistance. There was a sell strategy at 1.3635 thus we have taken the page short with relatively tight [07:46 GMT]

Stopped out

IFR Forex Watch - EUR/USD trading page Feb 3rd 2011

[Level] [Technical Significance]
1.4085 Daily High Nov 8
1.4049 Bollinger Band Top
1.3974 Daily High Nov 9
1.3862 Intraday High Feb 2
1.3780 10:00 GMT THU 03 FEB
1.3767 Daily Low Feb 2
1.3716 50% of 1.3570 - 1.3862
1.3570 Daily Low Jan 31
1.3540 Daily Low Jan 24

[CURRENT TRADE]
[Position] FLAT @ 1.3700
[Open] 1/31 3:32
[Target]
[Stop]


[Strategy: Buy@1.3775] The uptrend made new trend highs at 1.3862 yesterday and the pair now consolidates below here. Price is attempting to lift again intraday but hrlies are close to overbought levels and much of the same is expected at least intraday. On the downside 1.3716 is strong support, provided from the fibo and the 10-day MA. (AS) [08:02 GMT]

IFR Forex Watch - EUR/USD trading page Feb 7th 2011

[Level] [Technical Significance]
1.3826 Daily High Feb 3
1.3767 Daily Low Feb 2
1.3691 10-Day MA
1.3645 Intraday Rsst Feb 4
1.3596 10:00 GMT MON 07 FEB
1.3540 Daily Low Jan 24
1.3532 100-Day MA
1.3479 38.2% of 1.2860 - 1.3862
1.3449 Daily Low Jan 21

[CURRENT TRADE]
[Position] SHORT @ 1.3570
[Open] 2/6 10:18
[Target] 1.3250
[Stop] 1.3650

[Short For 1.3250] 1.3543 propped on Friday and 1.3546 overnight in Asia just ahea dof the 1.3540 low from Jan 24th and the 100-day MA. Daily charts are trying to maintain a bearish bias but need a break of the average to open up the downside. If not look to cover a rebound from 1.3532. Intraday price has lifted back to 1.3627 but stalls here. (AS) [07:25 GMT]

From Daily FX:

EUR/USD:Right now it is all about the weekly chart with the market putting in a bearish doji weekly close two weeks back and now putting in a bearish gravestone-like close this past week. This helps to increase potential for a major reversal with a medium-term lower top now sought out by 1.3860 ahead of the next major downside extension. For now, look for a daily close below 1.3540 to accelerate declines, while any rallies into the 1.3750 area should be well capped. Only back above 1.3860 delays and gives reason for pause.

IFR FOREX WATCH - EUR/USD TRADING PAGE - Feb 17th, 2011

[Level] [Technical Significance]
1.3826 Daily High Feb 3
1.3767 Daily Low Feb 2
1.3745 Daily High Feb 9
1.3630 21-Day MA
1.3559 11:20 GMT THU 17 FEB
1.3542 100-Day MA
1.3460 Daily Lows Feb 15, 16
1.3440 21 Day Bolli Band Base
1.3428 Daily Low Feb 14

[CURRENT TRADE]
[Position] SHORT @ 1.3579
[Open] 2/16 5:12
[Target] 1.3250
[Stop] 1.3655

[Short For 1.3250] 1.3610 stalled upward action and the pair is easing off the highs again in favor of the short trade. Hourly studies have rolled over and show risk for further pullback action and the 21-day MA looks set to come back under pressure next. Daily charts are bearish and 1.3250 is viable below the 100-day MA at 1.3542. (AS) [07:28 GMT]

[Level] [Technical Significance]
1.4085 Daily High Nov 8
1.3974 Daily High Nov 9
1.3871 Bollinger Band Top
1.3862 Trend High Feb 2
1.3825 09:50 GMT MON 28 FEB
1.3760 Hourly Support Feb 28
1.3704 Spike Low Feb 24
1.3676 10-Day MA
1.3662 21-Day MA


[Strategy: Buy@1.3770] Price continues to push higher and has broken back into the 1.3800s. Daily charts are trying to maintain a bullish bias and bulls should be encouraged by the break of the 1.3796 level. Buy dips for now but keep stops tight. The Bollinger band is a potential top. (AS) [09:36 GMT]

Tokyo, Feb 28 (IFR) - EUR/USD and most other EUR pairs did not do much in Asia
with many players sidelined due to the lack of any fresh factors - data and news
- to trade off of. Fine Gael's victory in Irish elections Friday were a foregone
conclusion. Crude oil prices, whilst still high, were less of a factor with
little in the way of fresh news out of the Middle East. Regional stock markets
reflected the lack of FX direction, off early but bouncing into the afternoon.
EUR/USD moved lower initially, a continuation of position adjustments seen
Friday. The jump in IMM CTA long EUR positions helped. From 1.3764, it fell to
1.3712 before bouncing back towards 1.3750. Stops are eyed sub-1.3700. Topside,
stops are eyed above 1.3770 and 1.3800. EUR/JPY fell from 112.45 through 112.00
to 111.95 before bouncing also. Specs successfully gunned for sub-112.00 stops
but were quick to cover. EUR/GBP moved down from 0.8550 to 0.8524 before also
bouncing. The recently more heavier EUR/CHF also fell off from 1.2793 to 1.2728
before bouncing. The latter remains very heavy however with stops tipped
sub-1.2700. Topside stops are above 1.2800. --Haruya.ida@thomsonreuters.com

ECB Drains E77.5 Bln In 1-Week Tender, As Expected

FRANKFURT (MNI) - The European Central Bank on Tuesday drained E77.5 billion from the financial system in its weekly operation to sterilize purchases of Eurozone government bonds, data released by the bank showed.

The drained amount this week matched the total volume of government bonds purchased by the ECB and settled as of last Friday. The total is E500 million higher than the drained amount last week, since the ECB announced Monday that it purchased E369 million in bonds last week and rounds to the nearest half billion for its draining operations.

The action comes amid renewed tensions on peripheral markets, especially in Portugal, with the benchmark 10-year bond reaching almost 7.6% on Monday.

There has been increasing talk that Portugal will need to ask for help from the European bail-out fund EFSF.

There were bids from 71 banks totaling E91.9109 billion at Tuesday's draining operation, the ECB said.

The weighted average allotment rate for today's operation was 0.56%, the lowest rate was 0.48%, and the highest rate accepted, or the marginal rate, was 0.65%, the ECB reported.

The drained liquidity takes the form of fixed-term deposits. These can be used as collateral in the Eurosystem's refinancing operations. The central bank will hold another liquidity-absorbing operation next week to reabsorb this week's term deposits when they expire, as well as any additional amou

Gossip Gossip:

'Traders say the market is long of options in EUR/USD. What does that mean for us?

That means that there are natural buyers of EUR/USD on dips and natural sellers of EUR/USD on rallies. It does not mean that the euro cannot break recent highs in the low 1.3860s but it suggests there will not be an explosive move to the upside. Plenty are sellers are seen on the approach of 1.3900, traders report, while buyers are quite evident at 1.3770/80.'

Elliot waves paint a bearish scenario: http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/article/special_report/2011/03/08/TopHeadline_1.html

Pricy puts at the moment. Though looks like the options expiring today are much higher than spot values, Perhaps we bounce bounce here:

http://www.tradingfloor.com/posts/fx-options-analytics/fx-options-analytics-vols-risk-reversals-pin-risk-1230-gmt-3667

FX Options in play today: http://www.tradingfloor.com/posts/forex/fx-options-analytics-vols-risk-reversals-pin-risk-1230-gmt-3688

IFR FOREX WATCH May 23rd, 2011
[EUR/USD TRADING PAGE]

[Level] [Technical Significance]
1.4300 55-Day MA
1.4262 Intraday Rsst May 20
1.4210 10-Day MA
1.4146 Hourly High May 23
1.4013 08:30 GMT MON 23 MAY
1.3967 100-Day MA
1.3906 Bollinger Band Base
1.3900 50% of Jan-May Uptrend
1.3869 Daily Low Mar 17

[CURRENT TRADE]
[Position] FLAT @ 1.4152
[Open] 5/20 11:02
[Target]
[Stop]




[Strategy:Sell@1.4135] Price slumped overnight and the sell off continues in Europe. Short players should target the 100-day MA and then the Bollinger band base. Intraday we favor selling upticks for a run at the latter. Hourly studies are oversold. Daily charts show scope for further weakness. (AS) [06:57 GMT]

Options Expiring this week: http://www.tradingfloor.com/posts/forex/fx-options-analytics-vols-risk-reversals-pin-risk-1230-gmt-3784

Euro Swiss in play, may actually lead EUR/USD selling....Rumors of 5 yards of stops somewhere below 1.24

[IFR FOREX WATCH] May 24th, 2011
[EUR/USD TRADING PAGE]

[Level] [Technical Significance]
1.4303 55-Day MA
1.4262 Intraday Rsst May 20
1.4177 10-Day MA
1.4146 Daily High May 23
1.4093 09:30 GMT TUE 24 MAY
1.3964 100-Day MA
1.3900 50% of Jan-May Uptrend
1.3869 Daily Low Mar 17
1.3862 Bollinger Band Base

[CURRENT TRADE]
[Position] SHORT @ 1.4050
[Open] 5/23 8:55
[Target] 1.3860
[Stop] 1.4150

[Short For 1.3860] New trend lows were hit yesterday but the 100-day MA propped and the price has lifted back into the 1.4000s. The 1.4080s are tested on the rebound but hourly studies are overbought and price stalls. Short trades are in play with the stps safe for now above 1.4146 resistance. Daily charts retain a bear bias however the 100-day MA needs to yield. (AS) [07:03 GMT]

[IFR FOREX WATCH] [EUR/USD TRADING PAGE] June 6th 2011

[Level] [Technical Significance]
1.4875 Hourly High May 5
1.4800 Psychological Level
1.4755 Daily Low May 3
1.4659 Today Session High
1.4610 10:50 GMT MON 06 JUN
1.4599 Today Session Low
1.4515 Daily High Jun 2
1.4500 Psychological Level
1.4451 Daily Low Jun 3

[CURRENT TRADE]
[Position] LONG @ 1.4580
[Open] 6/3 11:23
[Target] 1.4750
[Stop] 1.4590

[Stop at 1.4590] We remain long at 1.4580 in anticipation of gains to the 30-day
upper bollinger-band (currently at 1.4906) in coming sessions. Our profit stop
is at 1.4590, which is below 1.4600 (psychological) support. Daily momentum
remains positive, highlighting the overall upside bullish market structure. (MM)
[10:49 GMT]

Tokyo, June 6 (IFR) - EUR/USD and the whole EUR complex remained bid in Asia with some pairs moving above highs seen Friday. Reports of a massive bail-out for Greece got things rolling along with USD disfavor following a weak US jobs report. The weekend saw a victory of the more-right Social Democrats in Portugal, assuring that country of stringent austerity measures. EUR/USD saw a blip up from 1.4608 to 1.4659. Some stops look to have been taken out early on the move through presumed option barriers at 1.4650. Offers above limited further upside but more stops are eyed above 1.4660, and a trade through this level could set the stage for a test of 1.4700 where more option barriers lurk.
Stops are seen above here as well. EUR/JPY rose from 117.25 to 117.65, still holding under 117.80, the high on the 31st which has since capped this markets.
Stops are seen above here and 118.00, and a break above projects more rises.
EUR/GBP remained better bid between 0.8893-0.8914, in a holding pattern ahead of
the 0.8924 high seen Friday. EUR/CHF too held its own after soggy trading as of
late in a 1.2202-38 range. --Haruya.ida@thomsonreuters.com

FX Options expiring this week... Looks like the majority of EUR/USD this week are to the downside..hmmmm

http://www.tradingfloor.com/posts/forex/fx-options-analytics-vols-risk-reversals-pin-risk-0700-gmt-3953

[IFR FOREX WATCH] [EUR/USD TRADING PAGE] June 13th 2011

[Level] [Technical Significance]
1.4552 Daily High Jun 10
1.4500 Psychological Level
1.4490 10-Day M/A Line
1.4400 Psychological Level
1.4328 09:30 GMT MON 13 JUN
1.4300 Psychological Level
1.4285 Today Session Low
1.4279 Daily Low May 31
1.4257 Daily Low May 30

[CURRENT TRADE]
[Position] FLAT @ 1.4335
[Open] 6/10 1:58
[Target]
[Stop]

[Strategy:Sell@1.4395] The market continues the decline from 1.4697 (Tuesday's high), breaking into the 1.4300s. We are looking to sell rallies at 1.4395, the overall scope is for further losses down to 1.4257 (May 30 low) in coming sessions. Daily momentum remains positive, however, therefore we continue to be cautious on advised shorts. (MM) [06:47 GMT]

SYDNEY June 13 (IFR) - The EUR/USD opened in Asia around 1.4350 and the first
move was lower, as stops were tripped under 1.4320 and 1.4300, taking the
pairing to the session low at 1.4285 very briefly. The pairing quickly rebounded
to trade around 1.4325 for a few hours and then edged up to session high at
1.4358 late in the morning and subsequently consolidated below. The first move
in Asia has a history of being wrong and this morning's stop run could have
provided a short term base. In the press over the weekend confusion continues
around the Greek bailout. Bundesbank president Jens Weidmann said the EUR could
withstand a Greek default and if Greece did not meet its commitment to implement
austerity measures, then that would cancel the basis for disbursing fresh funds.
The German banking association announced on Saturday that they back government
proposals to involve private creditors in the cost of a Greek bailout. Junker
the head of the EU finance ministers favours a "soft restructuring" on a
voluntary basis in such a way that the credit agencies do not interpret the move
as a default, but the ECB led by Trichet continues to oppose restructuring.(ams)

Scalpuman wrote:

[IFR FOREX WATCH] [EUR/USD TRADING PAGE] June 13th 2011

[Level] [Technical Significance]
1.4552 Daily High Jun 10
1.4500 Psychological Level
1.4490 10-Day M/A Line
1.4400 Psychological Level
1.4328 09:30 GMT MON 13 JUN
1.4300 Psychological Level
1.4285 Today Session Low
1.4279 Daily Low May 31
1.4257 Daily Low May 30

[CURRENT TRADE]
[Position] FLAT @ 1.4335
[Open] 6/10 1:58
[Target]
[Stop]

[Strategy:Sell@1.4395] The market continues the decline from 1.4697 (Tuesday's high), breaking into the 1.4300s. We are looking to sell rallies at 1.4395, the overall scope is for further losses down to 1.4257 (May 30 low) in coming sessions. Daily momentum remains positive, however, therefore we continue to be cautious on advised shorts. (MM) [06:47 GMT]

SYDNEY June 13 (IFR) - The EUR/USD opened in Asia around 1.4350 and the first
move was lower, as stops were tripped under 1.4320 and 1.4300, taking the
pairing to the session low at 1.4285 very briefly. The pairing quickly rebounded
to trade around 1.4325 for a few hours and then edged up to session high at
1.4358 late in the morning and subsequently consolidated below. The first move
in Asia has a history of being wrong and this morning's stop run could have
provided a short term base. In the press over the weekend confusion continues
around the Greek bailout. Bundesbank president Jens Weidmann said the EUR could
withstand a Greek default and if Greece did not meet its commitment to implement
austerity measures, then that would cancel the basis for disbursing fresh funds.
The German banking association announced on Saturday that they back government
proposals to involve private creditors in the cost of a Greek bailout. Junker
the head of the EU finance ministers favours a "soft restructuring" on a
voluntary basis in such a way that the credit agencies do not interpret the move
as a default, but the ECB led by Trichet continues to oppose restructuring.(ams)

Holy snaps what a freakin week it was... anyone scalpin longs on this bad boy?

[IFR FOREX WATCH] [EUR/USD TRADING PAGE] June 21st 2011


[Level] [Technical Significance]
1.4498 Daily High Jun 14
1.4451 Daily High Jun 15
1.4411 55-Day MA
1.4384 Hourly High Jun 21
1.4322 09:30 GMT TUE 21 JUN
1.4303 Hourly Low Jun 21
1.4191 Daily Low Jun 20
1.4171 100-Day MA
1.4128 Daily Low Jun 17

[CURRENT TRADE]
[Position] LONG @ 1.4350
[Open] 6/21 9:52
[Target] 1.4495
[Stop] 1.4281

[Long For 1.4495] Recovery from the spikes below the 100 day MA continues with
the third day of higher lows. 1.4384 was hit overnight in Asia and price is
heading back towards the highs in the European morning. Daily charts are biased
higher and we are looking for a break of the 550day MA at 1.4411 for a run at
the 1.4495 target level on long trades. (AS) [06:28 GMT]

SYDNEY JUNE 21 (IFR) - The EUR/USD opened in Asia at 1.4300 with risk appetite
buoyant, after the positive night on Wall street and the 8.51% fall in the Vix
Index in what was a hectic Asian session. The order boards featured stops above
Friday's 1.4340 high and over coiling moving averages just below 1.4370. These
stops were tripped in early trading, taking the pairing to a brief high at
1.4385. The price range traded 1.4322/1.4350 for an hour and then Fitch said
that they would regard a Greece debt exchange or voluntary rollover as a
default, which resulted in a dip to 1.4302. This was followed by another Fitch
headline on the chance of a U.S. default; they said that it is very likely that
the U.S. debt ceiling will be raised and default avoided. Risk appetite bounced,
taking the EUR/USD back to 1.4343 and the price settled around 1.4335. The Asian
bourses took the positive lead from Wall Street, the Nikkei trades up 0.89% and
the market wants a viable Greek bailout, though it is hard to see where Fitch
and the EU will find common ground. EU and German Zew are the initial event risk
in Europe, though the Greek government confidence vote is the major issue. (ams)

[Level] [Technical Significance]
1.4408 55-Day MA
1.4392 21-Day MA
1.4357 Daily High Jun 23
1.4315 10-Day MA
1.4283 09:00 GMT FRI 24 JUN
1.4189 100-Day MA
1.4125 Daily Low Jun 23
1.4116 21 Day Lower Bollinger
1.4073 Daily Low Jun 16




SYDNEY JUNE 24 (IFR) - The EUR/USD opened at 1.4255 in Asia, having recovered
from the overnight low in the NY at 1.4125, as risk appetite recovered on the
Greek-EU-IMF deal on a 5-year austerity plan, causing widespread short covering.
The first move was to the session high at 1.4279 as the positive sentiment
initially extended into early Asia and then sellers emerged at the higher levels
and the pairing dipped to 1.4234 before settling around 1.4260 in the afternoon.
It was a session of range trading to close the week in Asia, consolidating at
the higher levels after the NY rebound, with local investors unwilling to take
fresh risk into the weekend and the end of the half year next week. The EUR
crosses traded tight ranges on USD component flow, with no bias evident. The
Asian bourses took the positive lead from Wall Street, with the Nikkei up 0.44%
and the SSEC 1.55%, but this has not flowed into the FX market. In Europe
tonight the bourses will react to the Greek austerity plan and should recover
some ground lost yesterday, so there could be further short covering, but the
run of weak global data remains a fundamental risk and thus EUR negative. (ams)

[IFR FOREX WATCH] [EUR/USD TRADING PAGE] June 26th 2011

[Level] [Technical Significance]
1.4400 55-Day MA
1.4387 21-Day MA
1.4357 Daily High Jun 23
1.4341 Daily TL Fm Jun 8
1.4277 09:10 GMT TUE 28 JUN
1.4202 100-Day MA
1.4099 21 Day Lower Bollinger
1.4073 Daily Low Jun 16
1.3968 Daily Low May 23

[CURRENT TRADE]
[Position] SHORT @ 1.4290
[Open] 6/28 8:57
[Target] 1.4110
[Stop] 1.4365

[Short For 1.4110] Falling TL caps around 1.4341 and short trades are in play.
Price has eased to the mid 1.4200s again intraday and risk is for further
downside price action. Hourly studies tick lower but oversold levels are close.
Daily charts are at neautral levels and lack a clear directional bias. We will
stick with the short trade and cover bounces. (AS) [06:42 GMT]

SYDNEY June 28 (IFR) - The EUR/USD opened at 1.4287 in Asia, having been
steadily bid overnight from 1.4125 on detailed French proposals to extend Greek
debt. The pairing touched a session low early at 1.4280 and then surged to the
session high at 1.4330 in early trading, tripping stops above 1.4310. The first
hour turned out to be the busiest of the session, as the price drifted off to
1.4289 as an old story circulated saying that four PASOK deputies in the Greek
government might not support the austerity package in parliament. The EUR/USD
then quietly range traded 1.4293/1.4320 in the afternoon. Investors in Asia were
reluctant to reverse the negative sentiment from yesterday, despite the local
bourses taking the positive lead from Wall Street with the Nikkei currently up
1.08%. They have been whipped around offshore recently, as the market turns on a
headline. Although the French proposals show promise, there are many hurdles to
be overcome, ie the reception from the ratings agencies and the non bank debt
holders, so the feeling is that the negative attitude to risk could easily
return amid the current uncertainty. Andrew.M.Spencer@thomsonreuters.com

[IFR FOREX WATCH] [EUR/USD TRADING PAGE] July 4th 2011


[Level] [Technical Significance]
1.4755 Daily Low May 3
1.4697 Daily High Jun 7
1.4674 21 Day Upper Bollinger
1.4655 Daily High Jun 9
1.4521 09:50 GMT MON 04 JUL
1.4437 Daily Low July 1
1.4410 55-Day MA
1.4384 10-Day MA
1.4320 Daily Low Jun 29

[CURRENT TRADE]
[Position] LONG @ 1.4345
[Open] 6/29 10:27
[Target] 1.4690
[Stop] 1.4500

[Long For 1.4690] 1.4510 is under pressure in early London just ahead of the
1.4500 stop profit. Hourly studies have stalled at neutral levels so could see
some sideways price action ahead of the latter. Regardless the daily charts look
as though they may have peaked at overnight 1.4580 highs so caution is advised.
Flat another failure for profit. (AS) [06:34 GMT]

[LONDON, July 4] EUR/USD gained further ground in Asia, hitting a 1-Mth high at
1.4580 overnight on the weekend news of an agreement to release EUR 12bln in aid
to Greece. However, the late Asian S&P headlines on a "selective default" sent
the Euro lower into the new week, with spot quickly retreating into the
lower-1.45s in early European action. 1.4510 hit as the pullback extended but
bids into the 1.4500 expiry level TG2369 soon propped the dip. Sovereign
Euro buying on dips seen keeping sub-1.4490 stops intact for the moment, while
1.4600 barriers are target heading towards the ECB meeting later in the week
(Thursday). However, regional holidays will keep interest limited in the
short-term, with London and European dealers forecasting further drift intraday.
Markets expect the European Central Bank to hike rates by 25bps this week, such
a move is said to be fully priced in, which could limit the immediate Euro
downside. North American market holidays intraday could impact liquidity but
EUR/USD is seen as steady in the 1.45s, with the attention soon set to turn to
the Friday release of the latest US Employment Report.

[IFR FOREX WATCH] [EUR/USD TRADING PAGE] July 6th 2011

[Level] [Technical Significance]
1.4554 Hourly High Jul 5
1.4496 Daily Low July 4
1.4490 Intraday Rsst July 5
1.4466 Hourly High Jul 6
1.4354 09:50 GMT WED 06 JUL
1.4320 Daily Low Jun 29
1.4282 61.8% Of 1.4102 - 1.4580
1.4257 100-Day MA
1.4237 Daily Low Jun 28

[CURRENT TRADE]
[Position] FLAT @ 1.4409
[Open] 7/5 8:17
[Target]
[Stop]


[Strategy:Sell@1.4455] The five day sequence of higher lows and highs ended
yesterday, as the price slipped below 1.4400 before rebounding. Daily trend
studies are bearish again and we are looking for fresh selling opportunities.
Renewed downside pressures have broken the cluster of MAs and a run at the the
1.4282 fibo support level is possible. (AS) [07:47 GMT]

[03:41 GMT July 6] The EUR/USD opened the Asian session at 1.4430 after getting
hammered as low as 1.4395 during the US session following news that Moody"s
lowered Portugal"s credit rating four notches to junk status. The EUR/USD stayed
bid through the Asian morning session and started tracking higher amid talk of
Asian sovereign buying and model fund selling of USD against a number of
currencies. Small EUR/USD stops were triggered above 1.4450 to 1.4466 and it was
trading around 1.4455 heading into the afternoon session.

The Portugal news was viewed as EUR negative, as evidenced by the steep
fall in EUR/CHF, but traders feel the EUR/USD downside is limited ahead of the
ECB meeting Thursday and US non-farm payrolls on Friday. Some analysts feel the
market is hardening to negative news from the likes of Greece, Portugal and
Ireland, but any threat of a downgrade for Spain would rattle the markets and
send the EUR significantly lower. EZ GDP and German IO are out today.
--John.Noonan@thomsonreuters.com

[IFR FOREX WATCH] [EUR/USD TRADING PAGE] July 11th 2011

[Level] [Technical Significance]
1.4393 55-Day MA
1.4375 Daily High July 7
1.4345 21-Day MA
1.4275 100-Day MA
1.4123 10:50 GMT MON 11 JUL
1.4102 Daily Low Jun 27
1.4073 Daily Low Jun 16
1.3968 Daily Low May 23
1.3900 50% of 1.2860 - 1.4940

[CURRENT TRADE]
[Position] SHORT @ 1.4283
[Open] 7/8 3:47
[Target] 1.3975
[Stop] 1.4280


[Short For 1.3975 Target] Shorts are in play and price continues to make fresh
session lows. Hourly studies are ignoring o/s levels and tick south. The
underlying bias is lower on the daily charts and the Bollinger band base at
1.4114 has been breached. We have lowered the stop on the short trade to above
100-day MA locking in a small profit. (AS) [10:54 GMT]


[03:26 GMT July 11] The EUR/USD opened at 1.4255 and ran up to 1.4298 in very
early trading when weak stops were triggered. The EUR/USD then collapsed to
1.4203 when it was reported the EU would hold an emergency meeting prior to the
regular EU FinMin meeting to discuss latest developments in the EU debt crisis.
The EUR/USD sold off to 1.4187 when the FT reported that EU would discuss the
possibility of Greece defaulting on some of their bonds as part of a new bailout
plan. Decent buying interests from Asian names at the lows managed to keep
EUR/USD stops below 1.4185 safe for the time being. The EUR/USD was trading
around 1.4205 heading into the afternoon session.

The EUR remains offered across the board, as the European sovereign debt
crisis continues to intensify due to contagion fears. The market is a bit
hesitant to sell into EUR/USD weakness due to the range trading nature of the
market of late and the fact that there are questions hanging over the US economy
and US debt ceiling talks. EUR/CHF looks the most vulnerable. (JN)

[IFR FOREX WATCH] [EUR/USD TRADING PAGE] July 19th 2011

[Level] [Technical Significance]
1.4375 Daily High July 7
1.4341 55-Day MA
1.4300 Daily High Jul 11
1.4282 High Jul 14, 21 Day MA
1.4179 12:50 GMT TUE 19 JUL
1.4123 Hourly Support Jul 19
1.4069 Hourly Low Jul 19
1.4014 Daily Low Jul 18
1.3967 21-Day Lower Bollinger

[Strategy:Sell@1.4275] Shorts have been stopped out as price rallies through the
10-day MA and hits the stops above 1.4172. Pullback now under way intraday as
hourly studies unwind from an overbought bias. Daily charts are mid range and
lack clear direction. Further volatility is on the cards. Aggressive players can
still sell strength. (AS) [12:42 GMT]

[LONDON, July 19]EUR/USD slipped into the European open on the Nowotny Greek
default comments but the single currency dip soon served up better levels to
buy. Official Euro buying from numerous ACB's (linked to diversification
following overnight local interventions), Eastern Europeans and a UKClearer
(linked to Middle-Eastern orders) pushed the EURhigher across the board and
spot quickly ran topside stops. The pair probed into the low-1.42s in the wake
of the rise in ZEWCurrent Conditions, hitting a 1.4217 high, but the headline
index fell more than expected and the price has struggled above the figure.
EUR/USDhas slipped back into the upper-1.41s into the North American open but
further probing of the low-1.42s cannot be ruled out in the short-run.
Option dealers note intraday 1.4200, 1.4230 and 1.4270 strikes TG2369. The
Euro rally on the day has been supported by rebounds in EUR crosses. Yetwhile
EUR/USD dips are attracting buyers the single currency remains vulnerable
heading into the upcoming European summit. Longer-term accounts remain sellers
of strength but signs of upside fatigue are yet to emerge. Fresh failures