The EURUSD thread

[IFR FOREX WATCH] [EUR/USD TRADING PAGE] August 26th 2011

[Level] [Technical Significance]
1.4521 21-Day Upper Bollinger
1.4518 Daily High Aug 17
1.4500 Daily High Aug 23
1.4482 Daily High Aug 24
1.4437 09:50 GMT FRI 26 AUG
1.4365 100-Day MA
1.4327 Daily Low Aug 25
1.4259 Daily Low Aug 19
1.4237 Daily Low Aug 15

[CURRENT TRADE]
[Position] SHORT @ 1.4377
[Open] 8/25 4:40
[Target] 1.4055
[Stop] 1.4530

[Shorts In Play] Shorts are in play but price is rallying against the trade. Hourly studies are overbought in the 1.4430s and we could see some corrective action next. Daily charts are mixed at neutral levels and lack a clear directional bias. With this in mind will look to cover bounces for a profit off the 100-day MA again. (AS) [06:33 GMT]

[2:47 GMT AUG 26 The EUR/USD opened at 1.4380 in Asia after a whippy US session where the EUR/USD fell from 1.4474 to 1.4325 at one stage following the large fall in the German DAX. After dipping to 1.4370 the EUR/USD tracked higher during the Asian morning, as a rise in the AUD/USD following upbeat testimony from RBA"s Stevens provided the excuse to trigger stops above 1.4405. It topped out at 1.4416 and was trading at 1.4400 heading into the afternoon.

There are plenty of EUR-negative themes in the market, but the EUR remains relatively buoyant due to incessant buying by sovereign accounts. The key event later today will be the Bernanke speech at Jackson Hole. Expectations that Bernanke will signal that more QE is on the way have faded over the past few days, but many feel he will at least leave the door open for more action if the US economy deteriorates from here. Some analysts feel the EUR/USD is ready to break out of the 1.4050/1.4550 range it has been in since late July and the Jackson Hole event might be the start of that process. (JN)

[IFR FOREX WATCH] [EUR/USD TRADING PAGE] August 31st 2011

[Level] [Technical Significance]
1.4580 Daily High Jul 4
1.4569 21-Day Upper Boilli Band
1.4550 Daily High Aug 29
1.4485 Hrly Low Aug 29 Now Resis
1.4432 09:30 GMT WED 31 AUG
1.4385 Daily Low Aug 30
1.4366 100-Day MA
1.4353 21-Day MA
1.4328 Daily Lows Aug 25/26

[CURRENT TRADE]
[Position] FLAT @ 1.4530
[Open] 8/29 7:49
[Target]
[Stop]

[Strategy:Sell@1.4475] The pairing once again failed to hold above 1.4500
yesterday, which leaves the daily studies showing negative signals with a fresh
bearish cross on the overbought slow stochastic. Our bias is with the studies
and our strategy is to sell a topside failure starting on a failure ahead of
1.4485 resistance. Hourly studies are upticking. (AS) [06:35 GMT]

[03:13 GMT Aug 31] The EUR/USD opened Asia at 1.4440 after recovering from
sub-1.4400 during the US afternoon session when Fed QE expectations rose
following the FOMC Minutes. After trading at 1.4448 in early Asia - the EUR/USD
came under pressure amid talk of an Asian reserve manager selling the EUR/USD
and AUD/USD. The EUR/USD traded down t0 1.4417 at one stage when a supposedly
large bid at 1.4430 was pulled. The buying interest reemerged ahead of 1.4410
and the EUR/USD drifted back to 1.4435 heading into the afternoon session.

The problems surrounding the EU sovereign debt crisis are ongoing and
if anything are becoming more complicated. The uncertainty in Europe should
limit EUR strength, but the downside in the EUR/USD will be limited while
speculation the Fed will resume QE efforts continue. US data will be key to
shaping Fed expectations and later today ADP jobs data will be released along
with US Factory Orders and Chicago PMI. German Retail Sales and EZ unemployment
are out today as well. --John.Noonan@thomsonreuters.com

[IFR FOREX WATCH] [EUR/USD TRADING PAGE] Sept 2nd 2011

[Level] [Technical Significance]
1.4500 Psychological Level
1.4470 Daily High Aug 31
1.4385 Daily High Sept 1
1.4355 21-Day MA
1.4242 09:20 GMT FRI 02 SEP
1.4159 21-Day Lower Bollinger
1.4149 Daily low Aug 12
1.4103 Daily Low Aug 11
1.4055 Daily Low Aug 5

[Strategy:Sell@1.4350] The failure at the upper Bolli band on Monday, which
remains around 1.4550 combined with the break of last week's lows overnight
suggest a a move towards the lower Bolli band at 1.4159. The daily studies are
negative with room to extend and our bias is down. Intraday look to sell upticks
back to the 21-day MA. (AS) [06:30 GMT]

[EURO BRIEFING]
[03:39 GMT Sept 2] The EUR/USD opened at 1.4260 in Asia and after weak EZ PMI
and ongoing EU debt and bank concerns weighed. After easing to 1.4254 in early
Asia - the EUR/USD tracked higher on talk of Asian CB buying and EUR/JPY demand
for the Tokyo fix. The EUR/USD traded to 1.4288 before capping and moving lower
when the risk mood in Asia soured. Asian equities fell and the S&P futures eased
0.6% when a NY Times article reported that a US federal agency was about to sue
over 12 large US banks for misrepresenting the value of mortgage securities they
sold at the height of the housing bubble. The EUR/USD eased below 1.4260 and was
trading around that level heading into the afternoon session.

The market will shift focus to the US non-farm payroll data later today
and the whisper number is between flat and plus 50 K - below the plus 75 K
median expectation. A very weak US jobs data will ramp up QE III expectations
and most likely help to underpin the EUR/USD. A stronger payroll number could
see the EUR/USD fall towards the lower end of the 1.41/1.46 DNT. (JN)

[IFR FOREX WATCH] [EUR/USD TRADING PAGE] Sept 6th 2011


[Level] [Technical Significance]
1.4470 Daily High Aug 31
1.4385 Daily High Sept 1
1.4342 21-Day MA
1.4288 Daily High Sep 2
1.4192 10:30 GMT TUE 06 SEP
1.4085 Hourly Support Sep 6
1.4038 Hourly Low Sep 6
1.4014 Low Jul 18, 200 Day MA
1.3951 Daily Low Jul 13

[Strategy:Buy@1.4100] Sharp jolt to the upside with price testing back in the
1.4200. Hourly studies are overbought and corrective dips loom from 1.4275 top
but with daily charts starting to bounce from oversold levels again risk is fo
further gaining action. Will use dips as fresh buying opportunities starting a
1.4100. (AS) [08:44 GMT]

[03:26 GMT Sept 6] The EUR/USD opened at 1.4095 in Asia after selling off in
Europewhen the EU debt and banking crises intensified. The EUR/USD traded to
1.4059 in early Asia before Asian buying stepped in to keep stops below 1.4055
safe for the time being. The EUR/USD spent the rest of the Asian morning session
consolidating between 1.0460/85 with EUR/JPY selling capping attempts to rally.
The EUR/JPY was under pressure throughout the session and traded down to 108.05
at one stage before Japanese buying helped to keep large stops below 108.00
safe. The EUR/USD was trading around 1.4075 heading into the afternoon session.

Sentiment towards the EUR/USD remains decidedly negative due to concerns
over the passing of the second Greek bailout package; Italy"s chaotic approach
to putting their fiscal house in order and the state of the EU banking sector.
Traders are reluctant to aggressively well into EUR/USD weakness due to the
range trading nature of the pairing though the northern summer, but there is
strong interest to sell pullbacks. John.noonan@tjhomsonreuters.com

[IFR FOREX WATCH] [EUR/USD TRADING PAGE] Sept 7th 2011

[Level] [Technical Significance]
1.4319 21-Day MA
1.4288 Daily Highs Sep 2 & 6
1.4283 10-Day MA
1.4106 Hourly Resistance Sep 6
1.4077 10:10 GMT WED 07 SEP
1.3972 Daily Low Sep 6
1.3951 Daily Low Jul 13
1.3928 Up TL Fm May 2010
1.3838 Daily Trend Low Jul 12

[Strategy:Sell@1.4100] Price slipped to 1.3972 yesterday, recording a bearish
outside day at the close. The close below the 200 day MA is the first since Jan
2011, while the daily studies are heading lower and the Bolli bands are
expanding which are all negative signals. Looking to sell a topside failure as
price climbs back towards 1.4100 intraday. (AS) [06:30 GMT]

[03:42 GMT Sept 7] The EUR/USD opened just below 1.4000 in Asia after a volatile
session that was heavily impacted by the SNB move and intensifying fears over
the EU debt crisis. The EUR/USD dipped to 1.3986 in early trading before
tracking higher for the rest of the Asian session. The move up was due to broad
USD weakness, a strong showing by Asian equities and a stronger than expected
Aus GDP that dragged "risk" currencies higher. The EUR/USD traded up to 1.4064
when the USD/JPY fell sharply in response to the BOJ decision to take no new
monetary steps and say they were watching USD/JPY moves with no hint of action.

The key event for the EUR/USD will be the German Court decision on the
legality of the Greek bailout package. If the court rules the package is legal -
the EUR/USD could spike higher, but the market will pay attention to possible
stipulations the court may add regarding future requests. Traders feel any
relief rally on the German court declaring the Greek bailout plan legal will be
fairly shallow and short-lived. (JN)

[IFR FOREX WATCH] [EUR/USD TRADING PAGE]

[Level] [Technical Significance]
1.3670 10-Day MA
1.3650 Hourly Sup Res Sept 21
1.3601 Daily High Sept 22
1.3567 Hourly High Sept 23
1.3551 08:50 GMT FRI 23 SEP
1.3384 Daily Low Sept 22
1.3367 Daily Low Jan 19
1.3282 21-Day Lower Bollinger
1.3254 Daily Low Jan 18


[CURRENT TRADE]
[Position] SHORT @ 1.3477
[Open] 9/22 3:50
[Target] 1.3050
[Stop] 1.3610

[Short Targets 1.3050] Short trades are in play and price is easing from 1.3567 this morning in Europe. Hourly stuides are mixed but close to oversold levels so rebounds are likely ahead of yesterday's 1.3384 base. Stick with the short trades for now targeting 1.3050 but look to cover a bounce out of the lower Bollinger at 1.3282. (AS) [06:45 GMT]

The EUR/USD opened in Asia at 1.3465 and after trading to 1.3455 it soared
higher on short-covering and reports the G20 would issue an emergency communique
that would address the EU debt crisis. Stops were triggered above 1.3530 and
1.3550 to a high at 1.3567. The EUR/USD eased back to 1.3511 when a source told
Dow Jones the communique wouldn"t contain concrete action to address the EU debt
crisis. The communique and comments were loaded with pledges and commitments,
but the two that helped to support the EUR/USD were a commitment to maintain
adequate capital for the banks and an agreement by the EZ to implement decisions
to maximize the impact of the EFSF. The EUR/USD traded back to 1.3545 before
settling around 1.3530 heading into the afternoon session.

The EUR/USD is trading with a relatively bid tone after the lack of
follow-through below 1.3500. Traders are hesitant to be overly short the EUR/USD
in case the trembling markets force the EU authorities to take action. There is
talk of stops above 1.3610 and below 1.3350. John.Noonan@thomsonreuters.com

[IFR FOREX WATCH] [EUR/USD TRADING PAGE] Sept 27th 2011

[Level] [Technical Significance]
1.3665 Dn TL Fm Sept 15 High
1.3641 10 Day MA
1.3601 Daily High Sept 22
1.3585 Sept 19 Low, 26 High
1.3521 09:50 GMT TUE 27 SEP
1.3479 Hourly Low Sept 27
1.3360 Daily Low Sept 26
1.3263 21-Day Lower Bollinger
1.3254 Daily Low Jan 18


[Strategy: Buy@1.3490] The dip to fresh trend lows at 1.3530 proved short lived
and the strong close leaves a bullish hammer on the daily candlesticks. Day
trend indicators are beginning to tick higher and a retest of yesterday's 1.3585
top ic close. Use any dips intraday as fresh buying opportunities. On the upside
the 10-day MA is a viable target level. (AS) [06:35 GMT]

[03:44 GMT Sept 27] The EUR/USD opened Asia at 1.3530 after reports the EU plan
to ring-fence banks and limit contagion was gaining traction. The EUR/USD eased
to 1.3481 in early Asian when EUR/JPY selling by Tokyo accounts forced out weak
EUR/USD longs. Decent buying from US names underpinned and the EUR/USD tracked
higher for the rest of the morning, as Asian equity markets moved higher. A few
stops were triggered above 1.3550 and the EUR/USD traded to 1.3565. Talk of
large selling interest ahead of 1.3580 discouraged further attempts higher and
the EUR/USD settled around 1.3530 heading into the afternoon session.

Sentiment towards the EUR/USD is mixed. There are plenty of skeptics
regarding the formation of a EU plan to beef up the EFSF and provide a backstop
for banks and limit contagion for what many consider an inevitable Greek
default. The skepticism should limit EUR/USD rallies, but the chance that Europe
will come up with a strategy to get ahead of the curve of its sovereign debt
crisis should underpin the EUR/USD on dips for the short-term at least. (JN)

[IFR FOREX WATCH] [EUR/USD TRADING PAGE] October 19th, 2011


[Level] [Technical Significance]
1.3937 Daily High Sept 9 & 15
1.3930 55-Day MA
1.3926 21 Day Upper Bollinger
1.3914 Daily High Oct 17
1.3841 10:00 GMT WED 19 OCT
1.3725 Hourly Low Oct 19
1.3682 10-Day MA
1.3653 Daily Low Oct 18
1.3565 Daily Low Oct 11

[CURRENT TRADE]
[Position] SHORT @ 1.3800
[Open] 10/19 2:05
[Target] 1.3570
[Stop] 1.3945

[Short For 1.3570] Focus remains on a retest of the 1.3565 Oct 11 until we can
manage to take out the 55 day MA at 1.3931 today. Intraday price has recovered
back to the mid 1.3800s and hourly studies are now overbought. Risk is for
pullbacks near term again. Daily charts are bearish in favor of the trade. Stops
are at 1.3945. (AS) [06:33 GMT]

[03:59 GMT Oct 19] The EUR/USD opened at 1.3753 in Asia after trading up to
1.3818 late in the US session on a UK Guardian report saying Germany and France
agreed on a plan to raise the EFSF to 2 TLN EUR. It then fell back to 1.3750
when DJ reported that EU sources said there was no deal reached. The EUR/USD
came under a bit more pressure in early Asia when Moody"s downgraded Spain to
one notch below the S&P and Fitch rating for that country. The EUR/USD traded
down to 1.3725 before talk of Asian sovereign buying helped to support and led
to short covering. Traders said that early Asia went very short the EUR/USD
following the Moody"s downgrade of Spain and were forced to cover when it
squeezed up to 1.3806 late in the morning session.

The EUR/USD is starting to look resilient, but it is expected to remain
in a range ahead of the key EU Summit on the weekend. There will be a reluctance
to push it too far in either direction, as there is debate and uncertainty on
whether or not the EU will deliver. John.Noonan@thomsonreuters.com

[IFR FOREX WATCH] [EUR/USD TRADING PAGE] October 31st 2011


[Level] [Technical Significance]
1.4257 21-Day Upper Bollinger
1.4248 Daily High Oct 27
1.4200 Daily High Oct 28
1.4172 Hourly High Oct 31
1.3983 10:20 GMT MON 31 OCT
1.3975 Hourly Low Oct 31
1.3943 Hourly Low Oct 27
1.3922 10-Day MA
1.3865 Daily Low Oct 27

[Strategy:Sell@1.4170] 1.3975 stalled early Europe and price has lifted off the lows again. Hourly studies are upticking and show scope for further gains
intraday. Look to use upticks as fresh selling opportunities as a move to test
the 10-day and the 55-day MA is favored on the daily charts. The slow stocs have
rolled over and show scope for further weakness. (AS) [07:36 GMT]

[03:21 GMT Oct 31] The EUR/USD gapped from 1.4145 to 1.4120 in early Asia after
the weekend press was full of analysis panning the EU debt plan released last
week. The EUR/USD regained all of the ground lost and more, as the market sold
the USD on talk of USD-negative month-end rebalancing flows. The EUR/USD was
sitting around 1.4165 when the BOJ intervened in the USD/JPY and drove it over
3% higher in less than 20 minutes. The spike up in the USD/JPY sent the USD
broadly higher and EUR/USD stops were triggered below 1.4100 and 1.4050 to a low
of 1.4028. The EUR/USD made a small bounce to 1.4050 heading into the afternoon
session when the USD/JPY eased from the 79.55 high.
The intervention by the BOJ resulted in a turn higher in the USD that
weighed on risk assets and risk currencies. Analysts noted that other Asian CBs
intervened to push the USD higher and this could result in EUR/USD buying flows
later on. There is good buying interest around 1.4000 and if it holds we could
see range trading resume ahead of the huge event risks later this week. (JN)

[IFR FOREX WATCH] [EUR/USD TRADING PAGE] November 1st 2011

[Level] [Technical Significance]
1.3911 10-Day MA
1.3873 55-Day MA
1.3830 Daily Low Oct 31
1.3749 21-Day MA
1.3696 10:10 GMT TUE 01 NOV
1.3653 Daily Low Oct 18
1.3565 Daily Low Oct 11
1.3346 Daily Low Oct 10
1.3242 Daily Low Oct 6

[Strategy:Sell@1.3820] The 21-day MA was breached in early European trade with
1.3675 the low to date. Hourly studies are oversold and we could see some
rebound action ahead of another leg lower. Use upticks intraday as fresh selling
opportunities for a run back toward the mid 1.3500 lows from the middle of
October. Daily charts are bearish. (AS) [08:42 GMT]

[03:12 GMT Nov 1] The EUR/USD opened the Asian session at 1.3858 after falling
as low as 1.3829 late in the US session on news the Greek PM was going to call a
referendum on the latest debt deal. The EUR/USD fell to 1.3813 to trigger stops
below 1.3825 after China PMI data came in worse than expected, but quickly
recovered to 1.3859. The EUR/USD dipped to 1.3833 when the AUD/USD fell after
the RBA eased rates and then settled around 1.3850 heading into the afternoon
session.

The EUR/USD is vulnerable as there is a growing consensus the EU debt
deal is in danger of unraveling and the move by Greek PM Papandreou to call a
surprise referendum only heightens Euro zone uncertainty. The market will keep a
close eye on Italian and Spanish debt yields after the EUR was undermined
yesterday when the 10-year Italian yield blew out to 61.0% yesterday. The market
will now start to shift to the FOMC meeting that ends on Wednesday and whether
or not the Fed will signal that QE III is on the way. (JN)

Double Top, Bear Flag Indicate Euro Plunge: Technical Analysis

2011-11-09 15:52:12.248 GMT


By Chris Fournier
Nov. 9 (Bloomberg) -- The euro has tumbled out of a recent consolidation range against the dollar and is poised to decline to as low as $1.2950 amid turmoil in the region’s bond markets, according to Citigroup Inc.
The 17-nation currency formed a double top within a bear flag, indicating the currency will plunge, the Citigroup analysts Tom Fitzpatrick, Shyam Devani and Jim Zhou wrote in a note to clients today. A breach of $1.3580, which represents the “neckline” of a head-and-shoulders pattern, would indicate a move to below $1.30, the analysts wrote.
“We’ve broken out of the consolidation we’ve been in over the course of the past week or so,” New York-based Fitzpatrick said in a telephone interview. “That has opened up the way for potentially the next move lower in the euro, which we think is confirmed if we get the move below $1.3580. The target of this head-and-shoulders, if we break below the $1.3580, is around $1.2950.”
The euro fell to a four-week low of $1.3558 today after LCH Clearnet SA, a clearing house, increased the extra deposit it demands from clients to trade Italy’s bonds. The currency depreciated 1.7 percent to $1.3595 at 10:51 a.m. New York time.
It’s “Europe in a nutshell,” said Fitzpatrick, referring to signals of a weakening euro, including a German-U.S. yield differential moving in America’s favor, the inversion of the Italian yield curve and the widening of German-France spreads.
In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns to forecast changes in a security, commodity, currency or index.
A double top is formed when a security is unable to rise above a certain level twice in succession. A bear-flag formation occurs when a currency declines or its appreciation pauses. It is so named for the graph’s resemblance to an inverted flag on a pole. A head-and-shoulders occurs when a price forms three consecutive peaks or valleys, the middle being the largest.

[IFR FOREX WATCH] [EUR/USD TRADING PAGE] Nov 11th 2011

[Level] [Technical Significance]
1.3966 Hourly Lows Oct 31
1.3871 Daily High Nov 1 & 4
1.3729 10-Day MA
1.3682 Daily Low Nov 7
1.3637 10:10 GMT FRI 11 NOV
1.3579 Hourly Support Nov 11
1.3513 21 Day Lower Bollinger
1.3484 Daily Low Nov 10
1.3346 Daily Low Oct 10

[CURRENT TRADE]
[Position] SHORT @ 1.3645
[Open] 11/11 7:38
[Target] 1.3490
[Stop] 1.3700

[Short Targets 1.3490] Price has upticked through the 1.3653 high from yesterday
to test 1.3668 although we sold an earlier upside failure and are short. Hourly
studies are testing overbought levels and due to roll over again. Daily trend
indicators maintain a bearish bias in spite of yesterday's positive close and we
are targeting the low at 1.3484. Stops are above [09:25 GMT]

[03:21 GMT Nov 11] The EUR/USD opened Asia at 1.3617 after getting late support
from a firm close on Wall Street. The EUR/USD came under pressure in early Asia
when Asian bourses got off to a sluggish start and S&P futures slipped 0.25%
lower. The mood lifted later in the morning when the Kospi shot 1.85 higher and
the S&P futures reversed to trade up around 0.50%. The EUR/USD moved up to
1.3627 before running into sovereign related selling and its settled just below
1.3620 heading into the afternoon session. Volumes were ultra-light after a busy
week and there was talk of sovereign interest on both sides of the market.

If European bond markets settle at all today - the EUR/USD might finish
the week on a firm note. Analysts are puzzled as to how the EUR/USD didn"t move
lower and much has been written about how Middle East buying and/or European
bank repatriation flows kept the EUR/USD from collapsing. The market is short
and might look to cover due to frustration. On the other hand - EUR/USD bears
wi;; be encouraged if Italian and French yields track higher again. (JN)

[IFR FOREX WATCH] [EUR/USD TRADING PAGE] Nov 23rd 2011


[Level] [Technical Significance]
1.3600 Psychological Level
1.3569 Daily High Nov 22
1.3532 Session High Nov 23
1.3500 Psychological Level
1.3449 10:10 GMT WED 23 NOV
1.3346 Daily Low Oct 10
1.3242 Daily Low Oct 6
1.3200 Psychological Level
1.3145 Daily Low Oct 4

[Strategy:Sell@1.3490] The focus remains on the down-side, the 30-day lower
bollinger-band (1.96 standard deviations) continues to point south. We have
lowered our sell order down to 1.3490, as 1.3500/1.3532 (psychological
level/today session high). Daily momentum remains negative, reinforcing the
bearish structure. A latest break below 1.3430 (Monday's low) [10:15 GMT]

[EURO BRIEFING]
[03:22 GMT Nov 23] The EUR/USD opened at 1.3505 in Asia after holding up well
despite the intensifying EZ debt crisis. The EUR/USD traded up to 1.3532 in
early Asia on frustrated short covering, but the price action reversed following
a Zero Hedge report saying that the Dexia bailout deal might have to be adjusted
and France"s Triple A rating could be jeopardized if that was the case. The
EUR/USD fell sharply and the move was further fueled by worse than expected HSBC
China Flash PMI data. Stops were triggered below 1.3465 to 1.3452 before buyers
returned and pushed it back to 1.3465 heading into the afternoon session.

The market is bearish towards the EUR/USD due to the seemingly endless
stream of negative news related to the debt crisis, but traders are wary of
selling into weakness. The EUR/USD has shown the happy knack of bouncing back
above 1.3500 on Middle East demand and/or European bank repatriation flows.
There is talk of decent stops below 1.3420 and larger ones below 1.3400. EZ PMI
data is out later today. John.Noonan@thomsonreuters.com

[IFR FOREX WATCH] [EUR/USD TRADING PAGE] Nov 24th 2011


[Level] [Technical Significance]
1.3615 Daily High Nov 18
1.3569 Daily High Nov 22
1.3532 Daily High Nov 23
1.3504 10-Day MA
1.3395 10:10 GMT THU 24 NOV
1.3321 Daily Low Nov 23
1.3242 Daily Low Oct 6
1.3225 21-Day Lower Bollinger
1.3145 Daily Low Oct 4

[CURRENT TRADE]
[Position] SHORT @ 1.3374
[Open] 11/23 3:30
[Target] 1.3050
[Stop] 1.3501

[Short For 1.3050] Shorts remain in play targeting the 61.8% Fibo of the
1.1876-1.4940 move. The previous trend lows at 1.3145 remain the initial
downside hurdle with below then targeting 1.2860 2011 lows. Intraday price is
lifting again and has broken 1.3384 highs which puts the 1.3501 stop in sight.
Daily charts continue to tick south and favor further weakness. [07:16 GMT]


SYDNEY Nov 24 04:58 (IFR) - EUR/USD opened the Asian session at 1.3345 after
selling off over 1.0% overnight as the failed German 10-year debt auction
convinced investors that the EZ sovereign debt crisis was striking the heart of
core-Europe. The Asian market was reluctant to sell EUR/USD into weakness due to
the thinning market conditions and expectations that European bank deleveraging
was still generating EUR-positive repatriation flows. From an early low of
1.3341, EUR/USD found a base above 1.3360 early in the session. It later pushed
back up to 1.3384 on short-covering ahead of tonight's US Thanksgiving holiday
and holiday-truncated US bond session Friday. Bids were noted well ahead of
1.3300 and offers well ahead of 1.3400.
Sentiment towards EUR/USD has turned very bearish and analysts feel moves
lower could accelerate once European bank repatriation flows start to dry up.
Speculation that the ECB will have to get much more aggressive as EU policy
options narrow could also start to weigh on EUR/USD is a significant way..

[IFR FOREX WATCH] [EUR/USD TRADING PAGE] Nov 28th 2011


[Level] [Technical Significance]
1.3569 Daily High Nov 22
1.3532 Daily High Nov 23
1.3416 10-Day MA
1.3412 Daily High Nov 24
1.3385 10:50 GMT MON 28 NOV
1.3213 Daily Low Nov 25
1.3211 21 Day Lower Bollinger
1.3145 Daily Low Oct 4
1.3088 Daily Low Jan 13

[Strategy:Sell@1.3400] Stop profit was hit on the short trade at 1.3360 and the
page has been returned flat. On the downside we continue to target the 61.8%
Fibo of the 1.1876-1.4940 move so will stick with selling upticks. First we need
to take out the previous trend lows at 1.3145 and the lower Bollinger band at
1.3221. Daily charts are oversold. (AS) [09:19 GMT]

[02:40 GMT Nov 28] The EUR/USD gapped above 1.3300 in early Asia from the NY
close at 1.3245, as the market reacted to weekend reports that an Italian
newspaper article saying Italy may receive an IMF loan for up to 600 BLN EUR and
reports that Merkel/Sarkozy were close to agreeing to a new stability plan. The
reports sent Asian equities and S&P futures 2% higher and the USD lower across
the board. The EUR/USD traded up to 1.3345 before hedge funds and European banks
capped. The EUR/USD fell to 1.3279 after the ECB"s Noyer said increasing the
size of the EFSF was unrealistic and indicated resistance to large scale EZ bond
buying by the central bank. The move lower in the EUR/USD proved short-lived and
the EUR/USD was back above 1.3320 heading into the afternoon session. The
EZ debt crisis intensified last week and now the market is wary of holding short
EUR/USD in case EU authorizes come up with yet another plan to short-circuit the
crisis. Key resistance is found around 1.3350 and stops are eyed above 1.3360.
(Reuters)

[IFR FOREX WATCH] [EUR/USD TRADING PAGE] Dec 2nd 2011


[Level] [Technical Significance]
1.3615 Daily High Nov 18
1.3608 38.2% of 1.4248 - 1.3213
1.3534 Daily High Nov 30
1.3515 21-Day MA
1.3482 11:10 GMT FRI 02 DEC
1.3417 Daily Low Dec 1
1.3393 10-Day MA
1.3359 Prev Hrly Res Now Sup
1.3259 Daily Low Nov 30

[Strategy:Buy@1.3425] Sideways trade below the 21-day MA. Daily charts are
bullish and favor further gaining action. Looking to use dips as fresh buying
opportunities for a run back above the average. Above here the 38.2% fibo at
1.3608 is targeted. (AS) [08:05 GMT]

[03:31 GMT Dec 2] The EUR/USD opened the Asia session at 1.3460 after getting
some support from EUR buying on the crosses following marked improvement in the
stressed euro zone debt markets. The EUR/USD moved up to 1.3489 in early Asia
when it received a boost from a Wall Street Journal article suggesting the ECB
was poised to significantly increase their intervention efforts to cap EZ bond
yields and the FT followed up with a similar report. EUR/JPY buying for the TOKT
fix also gave some support. The EUR/USD drifted back to the opening level around
1.3460 heading into the afternoon session.

The EUR/USD is expected to stay range-bound ahead of the US non-farm
payroll data, but the EUR could move higher on the crosses on growing
speculation in the media that the ECB and European leaders might be preparing a
significant and credible plan. There are buyers ahead of 1.3400 with stops just
below while sellers are camped between 1.3500/20.
(Reuters)

[IFR FOREX WATCH] [EUR/USD TRADING PAGE] Dec 5th 2011

[Level] [Technical Significance]
1.3610 55-Day MA
1.3608 38.2% of 1.4248 - 1.3213
1.3550 Daily High Dec 2
1.3495 21-Day MA
1.3432 11:50 GMT MON 05 DEC
1.3363 Daily Low Dec 2
1.3259 Daily Low Nov 30
1.3213 Daily Low Nov 25
1.3188 21 Day Lower Bollinger

[Strategy:Sell@1.3485] Bearish outside day on Friday after also making new highs
for the week sees focus shift back to the previous trend lows at 1.3145. We
favor selling corrective upticks intraday with a move through overnight highs
towards the 21-day MA on the cards. Daily charts are in the process of rolling
over, albeit from overbought levels. (AS) [07:24 GMT]

[LONDON, Dec 5th] The EUR/USD failure to cement the European dalliance with the
upper-1.34s has been followed by Mid-East Euro sales ahead of the North American
return. Spot managed to hit a 1.3460 intraday high in European morning action,
with the single currency drawing slight support from the latest events and
optimism surrounding upcoming meetings. However, follow-through was limited and
stops failed to propel the price higher and EUR/USD has since slipped back into
the lower-1.34s, with the support into the figure in focus on the downside into
the NorAm crossover. Option dealers were quick to flag the 1.3465 & 70 expiries
as a possible weight on the pair amid the move higher but 1.3400 strikes are
also seen on the intraday calendar TG2369, which might underpin the support
into the figure. Stops expected on a snap into the 1.33s but London dealers
suggest the price is comfortable in the mid-1.34s at present and the wider
market focus remains on the Merkozy press conference, due later in the day, and
the EcoFin meeting at the end of the week.

In interesting Analogy I've stumbled accross....Mandelbrot would be proud http://twitpic.com/83lhg8

[IFR FOREX WATCH] [EUR/USD TRADING PAGE] Jan 27, 2012

[Level] [Technical Significance]
1.3237 Daily High Dec 13
1.3199 Daily High Dec 21
1.3184 Daily High Jan 26
1.3117 55-Day MA
1.3128 10:00 GMT FRI 27 JAN
1.3077 Hourly Low Jan 27
1.3045 Hourly Lows Jan 25
1.2951 10-Day MA
1.2931 Daily Low Jan 25


[Strategy:Sell@1.3175] With the pair failing ahead of the 1.3199 hurdle
overnight and also forming a Doji/shooting star pattern on the candlesticks
yesterday the pair looks due some corrective action at least. Daily trend
indicators have rolled over from overbought levels as well and further pullbaks
are possible. Low at 1.3077 have been tested thus far. [07:51 GMT]

[EURO BRIEFING]
[0315GMT SYDNEY, Jan 27] EUR/USD opened on Friday at 1.3108 and has traded a
moderate 1.3077-1.3114 range in Asia so far today; last at 1.3110. The single
currency was quickly on the back-foot on the arrival of Tokyo players who were
solid sellers of USD/JPY and JPY crosses. EUR/JPY was down over a 100 pips from
the overnight high at one stage before the selling subsided. Weak stops around
1.3080 were tripped but EUR/USD was saved from a steeper decline by reported
bids in the 1.3060/70 area. EUR/USD recovered back to 1.3100 with the market now
looking ahead to the weekend. There was enough stories/rumours/tidbits overnight
to suggest that there has been some movement in the Greece negotiations with
"final" offers most likely not that final. Whilst a weekend deal certainly now
looks possible, one suspects that the markets attention will quickly shifted to
Portugal. Portugal bonds have been hung out to dry this week with the ECB
seemingly uninterested (perhaps as a consequence of the Greece negotiations and
some expectation that they take some of the pain). The bond market of course
seems happy as long as the ECB buys Spanish and Italian debt. PJW

[IFR FOREX WATCH] [EUR/USD TRADING PAGE] Jan 30, 2012

[Level] [Technical Significance]
1.3371 100-Day MA
1.3356 Hourly High Dec 12
1.3282 Daily Low Dec 9
1.3244 38.2% of Oct-Jan Slide
1.3127 10:50 GMT MON 30 JAN
1.3111 55-Day MA
1.3081 Daily Low Jan 27
1.3045 Hourly Lows Jan 25
1.3013 10-Day MA

[CURRENT TRADE]
[Position] LONG @ 1.3175
[Open] 1/30 12:56
[Target] 1.3450
[Stop] 1.3070

[Long For 1.3450] WPrice failed ahead of the 38.2% fibo overnight and has headed
back tot he mid 1.3100s again. Hourly studies are easing although oversold
levels are close and a rebound from or ahead of the 55-day MA is possible
intraday. Daily charts are rolling over and the rejection came from close to the
upper Bollinger. Flat fails for a profit. (AS) [07:26 GMT]


[03:30 GMT Jan 30] The EUR/USD traded to 1.3233 in early Asia before coming
under pressure for the rest of the morning session. The EUR/USD was initially
weighed down by Japanese selling of EUR/JPY and EUR/USD profit taking following
last week"s 2.20% gain. The selling accelerated on reports Germany would insist
Greece give up some control of its fiscal policy - an idea that was swiftly
rejected by Greek FinMin Papademos. The reports added to uncertainty on whether
or not Greece would get the 130 BLN EUR second bailout - even if the bond swap
deal between Athens and private debt holders is finalized. The EUR/USD traded
down to 1.3173 before recovering to 1.3195 heading into the afternoon session.

While it appears certain Greece will get a favourable deal with private
bondholders regarding the debt swap - the uncertainty on whether they will get
the vital second bailout from the EU/IMF should make breaking above stiff
resistance at 1.3245 (38.2 fibo of the 1.4745/1.2625 move) and an option barrier
at 1.3250.

[IFR FOREX WATCH] [EUR/USD TRADING PAGE] Jan 31, 2012


[Level] [Technical Significance]
1.3282 Daily Low Dec 9
1.3261 21 Day Upper Bollinger
1.3244 38.2% of 1.4244-1.2624
1.3235 Trend High Jan 27
1.3190 10:50 GMT TUE 31 JAN
1.3077 Daily Low Jan 30
1.3054 10-Day MA
1.3045 Hourly Lows Jan 25
1.2931 Daily Low Jan 25

[CURRENT TRADE]
[Position] LONG @ 1.3175
[Open] 1/30 12:56
[Target] 1.3450
[Stop] 1.3070

[Longs Remain In Play] Longs survived the dip to 1.3077 yesterday and while the
1.3070-80 region continues to support we will continue to look for a break
higher. The upper Bollinger band continues to climb, today at 1.3261, and daily
trend indicators are ticking north in spite of testing overbought territory.
Intraday the pair is off 1.3198 session tops. (AS) [07:36 GMT]

[EURO BRIEFING]
[03:31 GMT Jan 31] The EUR/USD opened the Asia at 1.3145 after recovering from
1.3077 during the US session. After trading to 1.3133 in early Asia - the
EUR/USD tracked higher for the rest of the morning following comments from Greek
PM Papademos and various EU officials indicating that a debt swap deal between
Athens and the banks and negotiations with the Troika" regarding the second
Greek bailout might be concluded shortly. The EUR/USD traded to 1.3198 after
stops above 1.3175 were triggered. Standing sell orders above 1.3200 capped and
the EUR/USD settled just below 1.3190 heading into the afternoon session.

The market is back to trading headlines and traders are reluctant to hold
on to positions. There is a consensus that despite the stalling - the PSI
agreement with Athens will eventuate and Greece will get their second bailout
from the Troika. This is making it difficult for shorts to hang in - while the
deteriorating Portuguese debt market makes it difficult to buy the EUR/USD with
confidence. Resistance is found at 1.3245 and stops are eyed above 1.3250. (JN)

[IFR FOREX WATCH] [EUR/USD TRADING PAGE] Feb 7th 2012


[Level] [Technical Significance]
1.3282 Daily Low Dec 9
1.3244 38.2% of 1.4248-1.2624
1.3235 Daily High Jan 27
1.3206 Daily High Feb 3
1.3159 10:10 GMT TUE 07 FEB
1.3100 Psychological Level
1.3089 Session Low Feb 7
1.3026 Daily Low Feb 1
1.3000 Psychological Level

[Strategy:Buy@1.3110] The market continues the recovery from 1.3026 (last
Wednesday's low), breaking back up into the 1.3100s, the scope is for gains
towards 1.3244 (38.2% retrace of 1.4248-1.2624 down-leg) above which will
accelerate further up towards 1.3282 (December 9 2011 low) in coming sessions.
(MM) [08:24 GMT]

[EURO BRIEFING]
[03:22 GMT Feb 7] The EUR/USD opened in Asia at 1.3130 after moving higher
during the afternoon session on heavy short-covering. After trading at 1.3134 in
early Asia when EUR/AUD buying flows gave some support - the EUR/USD drifted
down to 1.3107 in very quiet trading. Activity was extremely light, as the
market tries to bide its time ahead of what is expected to be a resolution to
the stand-off in Athens. The EUR/USD was trading around 1.3115 heading into the
afternoon session.

The EUR/USD continues to whip between 1.3000/1.3250, as the market keeps
getting short on negative Greek headlines and then square up in fear of getting
caught if and when Greece scratches together a deal with the Troika to receive
the desperately needed second bailout. The market expects the deal to be agreed
to today and if that proves correct - the EUR/USD might trade above 1.3200
before topping out. A failure by Greek political parties to agree to the Troika
demands could see the markets start to price in a chaotic Greek default. (JN)

[IFR FOREX WATCH] [EUR/USD TRADING PAGE] Feb 22th 2012

[Level] [Technical Significance]
1.3322 Trend High Feb 9
1.3306 100-Day MA
1.3295 21-Day Upper Bollinger
1.3293 Daily High Mar 21
1.3233 10:50 GMT WED 22 FEB
1.3186 Daily Low Feb 21
1.3170 21-Day MA
1.3115 Daily Low Feb 17
1.3040 21-Day Lower Bollinger

[CURRENT TRADE]
[Position] LONG @ 1.3235
[Open] 2/20 9:39
[Target] 1.3545
[Stop] 1.3173

[Long For 1.3545] Longs remain but the failure ahead of the 1.3322 trend highs,
100-day MA and 21-day upper Bollinger is a concern. We will look to flat the
trade for a profit on another rejection is this region but for now the price is
consolidating below. Hourly studies are upticking and risk is for further gains
again. Daily charts are gaining also. (AS) [07:34 GMT]

[EURO BRIEFING]
[03:22 GMT Feb 22] The EUR/USD opened at 1.3235 in Asia after a choppy US
session that was dominated by cross flows and positions adjustments. The EUR/USD
traded up to 1.3249 in early Asia when Tokyo names bought EUR/JPY and then
proceeded to track lower the rest of the morning. The USD was bid across the
board and small EUR/USD stops were triggered below 1.3220 to a low at 1.3211
before decent buying emerged. The pairing settled around 1.3220 heading into the
afternoon session.

The failure of the 100-day MA at 1.3307 despite the Greek bailout deal
has the market probing lower. This is the usual pattern following EZ rescue
packages, as investors look ahead to the next crisis point. The financial press
was generally negative on the details of the plan and some reports are looking
for Portugal to be the next country to renegotiate bailout terms. The EUR/USD
may consolidate between 1.31/1.33 until Friday"s G2 where it is hoped countries
like China and Japan will pledge to help reinforce the Eurozone firewall. (JN)

[IFR FOREX WATCH] [EUR/USD TRADING PAGE] March 14th 2012


[Level] [Technical Significance]
1.3291 Daily High Mar 8
1.3213 Alternating Hrly Sup/Res
1.3192 Daily High Mar 13
1.3122 Hourly Resistance Mar 13
1.3084 11:30 GMT WED 14 MAR
1.3031 Session Lows Mar 14
1.2983 21 Day Lower Bollinger
1.2974 Daily Low Feb 16
1.2955 61.8% of 1.2624-1.3487

[Strategy:Sell@1.3120] We managed to dip below the 50% fibo of the 1.2624-1.3487
move Tuesday as well as breaking back into the cloud for the first time in a few
weeks. We continue to target the 1.2974 level initially and 1.2839 below and
sell bounces back to hourly resistance at 1.3122. If set we stop above the highs
at 1.3191. (KS/PS) [07:50 GMT]

[LONDON, March 14] Euro gains on the crosses have helped EUR/USD intraday, with
the recnet EUR/JPY and EUR/CHF rise aiding the single currency recovery against
the Dollar into the North American crossover. Stops into the 1.3080s are now
being hunted as spot extends its European morning rebound off the 1.3030 1-Mth
lows. Offers into the 1.3100 expiry level protect further stop interests and
these will also look to maintain the immediate focus on the option barriers into
1.3000, with a break back into the 1.31s expected to negate the post-Fed bear
bias.
Option dealers also note 1.3050 & 1.3000 strikes, which will support
renewed spot weakness. US data awaited and selling strength remains preferred,
as a result bears will eye the numbers for possible sell triggers, with topside
failures/rally fatigue also expected to generate fresh supply.
Matthew Foster-Smith (Reuters)

[IFR FOREX WATCH] [EUR/USD TRADING PAGE] March 20th, 2012


[Level] [Technical Significance]
1.3333 Daily High Mar 2
1.3291 Daily High Mar 8
1.3279 Daily High Mar 9
1.3266 Daily High Mar 19
1.3198 10:40 GMT TUE 20 MAR
1.3153 10-Day MA
1.3142 Daily Low Mar 19
1.3118 30-Day MA
1.3100 Psychological Level

[Strategy:Buy@1.3170] We are looking to buy dips at 1.3170, this is ahead of
1.3118/1.3153 region (30-day moving average/10-day moving average) and this
keeps the bias on the upside. An eventual break above 1.3266 (Monday's high)
will accelerate gains further up towards 1.3291 (March 8 high). (MM) [07:48 GMT]

[LONDON, March 20] EUR/USD ducks to a 1.3188 session/intraday low ahead of the
North American return, running stops in the move to aid the Dollar. However,
fresh ACB buying into the lows has slowed the descent and left the price holding
near the 1.3200 intraday option expiry level as we work towards the
NorAm crossover. Yet further stops are touted below 1.3180, which if triggered
could fuel a deeper drop in the pair, as the Dollar attempts to recoup its
Monday losses against the single currency.
EUR/USD failed to retest its 1.3265 Monday highs overnight, with the steady
Asian tone compounded by the Japanese holiday. Yet it has been the Yen that
remains a key driver of short-term volatility, with official Asian Dollar buying
against the JPYsparking the US unit bounce in early European action.
EUR/JPYgained to negate the immediate need for EUR/USD to track USD/JPY but the
cross soon topped out in the 110.80s and this opened the door for spot to absorb
the bids in the lower-1.32s. Matthew Foster-Smith, Thomson Reuters

[IFR FOREX WATCH] [EUR/USD TRADING PAGE] April 3rd 2012

[Level] [Technical Significance]
1.3487 2012 High Feb 24
1.3486 Daily Highs Feb 24 & 29
1.3414 21-Day Upper Bollinger
1.3385 Daily High Mar 27
1.3338 08:50 GMT TUE 03 APR
1.3251 Daily Low Mar 29
1.3219 21-Day MA
1.3193 Daily Low Mar 26
1.3161 100-Day MA

[CURRENT TRADE]
[Position] SHORT @ 1.3324
[Open] 3/28 4:35
[Target] 1.3210
[Stop] 1.3395


[Short For 1.3210] Spot is holding in the 1.3300s but below the 1.3395 stop
level. Hourly studies are ticking lower and there is scope for some intraday
easing. Daily charts are mildly bearish but looking for a clear move below the
10-day MA at 1.3297 to become confident in the trade. Target 1.3210 below. (AH)
[06:45 GMT]

[04:05 GMT April 3] The EUR/USD opened at 1.3320 in Asia after whippy Lon and NY
sessions that ended up with the EUR underperforming across the board. The
EUR/USD traded to 1.3313 in early Asia before tracking higher for the rest of
the morning when the USD helped to lead the USD broadly lower and model and
macro funds sold the USD against a number of currencies. The EUR/USD traded as
high as 1.3356 at one stage before sell orders lined up between 1.3370/85
discouraged attempts higher. Heading into the afternoon session the EUR/USD was
trading around 1.3340.

The strong move up in the EUR/USD since mid-March appears to has
appeared to run into a brick wall ahead of 1.3400. While the market has priced
out a near-term catastrophe in Europe - the weak EZ economy remains a source of
investor concern and is limiting the appeal of the EUR at these elevated levels.
The key event later today will be the Fed Minutes and if they stoke QE III
expectations - stops in the EUR/USD above 1.3400 could come into focus. (JN)

[IFR FOREX WATCH] [EUR/USD TRADING PAGE] May 1st 2012


[Level] [Technical Significance]
1.3385 Daily High Mar 27
1.3368 Daily High Apr 3
1.3283 Dn TL Fm Feb 29 High
1.3281 21-Day Upper Bollinger
1.3248 10:20 GMT TUE 01 MAY
1.3200 10-Day MA
1.3159 21-Day MA
1.3157 Daily Low Apr 27
1.3115 100-Day MA

[Strategy:Sell@1.3283] Overbought on daily oscillators + prices have closed in
on upper Bolli + downtrend line off the Feb 29 highs in the 1.3280s. An initial
rejection from this area is favored. Set shorts on a failure targeting the 21
DMA @ 1.3159. Yesterday's Doji suggests indecision, below 1.3267 a potential
reversal in play. (AH) [06:41 GMT]

[LONDON, May 1] Volume on the low side into the new month and liquidity on the
light side as the host of various European holidays for Labour/May Day impact.
The Euro has managed to eke out marginal gains since the European open, with
EUR/USD probing to 4-Wk highs. Offers into 1.3260/70 were finally absorbed, with
the slight EUR/GBP short squeeze in the aftermath of poor UK?PMI data helping
aid the rise to the 1.3278 highs. However, stops above 1.3280 remain intact,
with the latest sovereign sales rebuffing the advance and forcing a quick
pullback to the 1.3250 expiry level into the North American open.
Further strikes are seen down at 1.3235 to help underpin the price
on any deeper dips into the crossover, while on the topside offers trail to the
smaller 1.3300 barriers to keep the price steady and in the 'comfort' of the
mid-1.32s into the new month. A break into the 1.33s is expected to accelerate
upside risks but selling strength remains preferred by many longer-term dealers
and this could see shorts aim for notable technical support in the upper-1.31s
. Matthew.Foster-Smith, ThomsonReuters.Com

[IFR FOREX WATCH] [EUR/USD TRADING PAGE] May 2nd 2012

[Level] [Technical Significance]
1.3368 Daily High Apr 3
1.3284 May 1 Hi, Dn TL fm Feb 29
1.3276 21-Day Upper Bollinger
1.3242 Hourly High May 2
1.3146 10:00 GMT WED 02 MAY
1.3117 100-Day MA
1.3058 Daily Low Apr 18
1.3014 21-Day Lower Bollinger
1.2995 Daily Low Apr 16

[CURRENT TRADE]
[Position] SHORT @ 1.3240
[Open] 5/1 4:20
[Target] 1.3110
[Stop] 1.3305


[Shorts Target 1.3110] The upper Bolli and the trendline continue to provide a
cap to the market. Prices have eased in line with daily charts which have rolled
over from overbought levels. Short trades are in play targeting 1.3110.
Yesterday's price action formed a Doji, looking for a lower close to confirm.
Stops are just above 1.3300. (AH) [09:31 GMT]

[03:55 GMT May 2] The EUR/USD opened the Asian session at 1.3235 marking the
fourth straight trading day the pairing has opened within five pips of 1.3240.
After trading at 1.3242 in early Asia - the EUR/USD came under selling pressure
when US names were decent sellers. The EUR/USD traded down to 1.3211 amid talk
of small stops below 1.3200, but rumoured sovereign related buying emerged at
the lows. The EUR/USD drifted back up to 1.330/35heading into the afternoon
session, as range trading remained the order of the day.

The consolidation in the EUR/USD around 1.3240 has been incredible
-considering all of the factors impacting the paring. Sovereign names have been
on both sides of the market to hem in the price action. The EUR/USD is bound to
break out and make a decent directional move with all of the event risk this
week - starting with EZ mfg PMI data today; the ECB meeting tomorrow, US
payrolls on Friday and elections in Greece and France on Sunday.
John.Noonan thomsonreuters.com

[IFR FOREX WATCH] [EUR/USD TRADING PAGE] May 8th 2012


[Level] [Technical Significance]
1.3118 100 DMA
1.3080 Daily Low May 4
1.3073 Daily High May 7
1.3067 Hourly High May 8
1.3024 10:50 GMT TUE 08 MAY
1.2954 61.8% of 1.2624-1.3487
1.2931 Daily Low Jan 25
1.2900 Psychological Level
1.2855 Daily Low Jan 23

[Strategy:Sell@1.3060] Looking to set shorts again on upside failures despite
the recovery from Fri's 1.2956 low. The 61.8% fibo just below at 1.2954 is a
viable downside target. Hourly studies were testing oversold and rebound action
has kicked in intraday. Daily charts maintain a bear bias and ignore support
from the base of the Bollinger pattern. (AH) [10:52 GMT]

[LONDON, May 8] Once again German data comes to the rescue of the Euro. The Euro
recovery had already begun to falter before the full weight of the London market
returned but the EUR was soon sold and EUR/USD quickly sagged back into the
lower-half of the 1.30s, leaving stops 1.3065+ intact. The pair was worked lower
as London dealers were given the opportunity to react to the latest Eurozone
developments. However, it was the Swiss quasi-official Euro sales, linked to SNB
'recycling', that dominated the flow focus. EUR/USD slipped towards the
1.30-mark, with the latest expiries at the figure offering the pair short-term
support. But spot is yet to retest the 1.29s with the above
expectation German March IO headline (+2.8% M/M vs +0.8% exp) helping the single
currency to move off its lows heading into the North American entrance.
IFR expects the Euro to remain vulnerable on underlying EZ political woes, with
1.2950 barriers still key to the immediate downside. Further interests at 1.2900
but many target a fall back towards the 2012 lows as the single currency is
worked lower. Matthew.Foster-Smith ThomsonReuters.Com