fxpulsation
Posts : 8759 Join date : 2012-01-25
| Subject: Eur Outlook on Negative Greek Election Result Mon May 28, 2012 11:54 am | |
| Eur Outlook on Negative Greek Election ResultQuotes from Standard Chartered: -A key determinant of just how far and how fast the EUR may fall under Greece exiting EMU scenario would be the policy response. In our view, the ECB would respond to a Greek exit through significant monetary easing, both through orthodox policy (rate cuts) and less orthodox policy (QE). While this would provide vital support to the Eurosystem, it would undercut support for the EUR in the short term. -In this scenario we see an eventual break of the 1.1876 low for EUR-USD and a move to retest the 1.15 area before greater stabilisation occurred. One factor that may (briefly) delay this acceleration to the downside is the EU bank recapitalisation process, which could provide at least some support through June. Come the first week of July, that source of support will be gone, which could encourage sharp downside acceleration. | |
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