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 ADVFN Morning Euro Markets Bulletin - June 2nd 2010

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PostSubject: ADVFN Morning Euro Markets Bulletin - June 2nd 2010   ADVFN Morning Euro Markets Bulletin - June 2nd 2010 Icon_minitimeWed Jun 02, 2010 10:07 am

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London Markets Report

Weak start for blue chips

London’s top stocks have opened lower with Prudential’s failed bid for AIG’s Asian business getting the headlines.

Prudential was this morning facing calls for a clear-out of its senior management after it scrapped its contentious plans to buy AIG's Asian arm (AIA). In a statement, chairman Harvey McGrath said the Pru took the decision to withdraw after failing to negotiate a cut in the $35.5bn purchase price for AIA. The Pru's $21bn right issue to finance the deal will now also be scrapped.

Analysts said it could spark a break-up bid for Prudential, especially with the uncertainty over the management situation.

BP is lower again on news that it faces both a civil and criminal probe into the causes of the Gulf of Mexico disaster. The UK company, which has seen over £40bn wiped off its value since mid-April, is facing increasing anger over the spill, the biggest in American history.

US Attorney-General Eric Holder said last night the FBI and other federal agencies will conduct a criminal and civil investigation into the environmental catastrophe that threatens the livelihoods of thousands along the Gulf coast.

Miners are lower this morning, while National Grid and Marks & Spencer going ex-dividend are also hurting the blue chip index.

Scottish soft drinks maker AG Barr said it has made a good start to the year, thanks to strong performances by its Irn Bru and Rubicon brands. Total revenue for the period from 31 January to 29 May on a like for like basis increased by 17.9% compared with last year. Overall operating margins continue to be in line with expectations, the group added.

Water company Northumbrian Water has pumped up full-year profits by 11.5% and says it will not need to raise any new debt before the end of 2011. Profit before tax for the year ended 31 March increased to £170.2m from £152.7m on revenue up 1.5% to £704.7m, mainly due to the uplift in tariffs to support ongoing high capital investment.

Barclays said its TAV unit has made a recommended cash offer to buy Stockholm-listed carbon developer Tricorona for about £98m. The deal, which is expected to complete in the third quarter of 2010, would be accretive to Barclays earnings within one year from completion.

Oil and gas services provider Hamworthy reported a decline in pre-tax profit but said, despite short-term market uncertainties, it looks forward with confidence. Pre-tax profit fell to £20.7m for the year ended 31 March 2010 from £22.3m the same time a year before. Revenue decreased by 15.2% to £214.3m.

Vector Capital
and Trafficmaster have agreed the terms of the recommended takeover by Vector of the UK satnav systems supplier for about £73.27m.

Infrastructure maintenance specialist May Gurney posted its eleventh year of record sales and profits as councils and utilities continued to outsource. The group's order book is also at record levels.

Sales at specialist flooring retailer Topps Tiles have started falling again after a brief respite in the half year to end March. Since the start of April sales overall are down by 5% with like-for-like sales 4.3% lower.

Filtration and environmental technologies group Porvair said it had started 2010 well and expects to report interim results well ahead of 2009.

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UK Event Calendar for today

INTERIMS
RWS Holdings, Sinclair (William) Holdings, Topps Tiles

INTERIM EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Associated British Foods, Cardiff Property, Ciref, Connaught, Education Development International, Grainger, Greencore Group, Local Shopping REIT, Majedie Investments, Marston's, Matchtech, Renew Holdings, RM Group

QUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Frontline

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Auto Sales (US) (15:00)
Crude Oil Inventories (US) (15:30)
Current Account (AUS) (00:00)
Gross Domestic Product (AUS) (00:00)
MBA Mortgage Applications (US) (12:00)
Pending Homes Sales (US) (15:00)
Producer Price Index (EU) (10:00)
Monetary Base (JPN)

GMS
Nyota Minerals Ltd.

FINALS
Acal, Alterian, B.P. Marsh & Partners, Hamworthy, Iomart, IS Pharma, May Gurney Integrated Services, Northumbrian Water Group

SPECIAL EX-DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Ashmore Global Opportunities EUR Shares, Ashmore Global Opportunities GBP Shares, Ashmore Global Opportunities USD Shares, Capital Gearing Trust, GVC Holdings

AGMS
Advanced Medical Solutions, Alexander David Securities Group, Capital Shopping Centres Group, China Biodiesel International, City Merchants High Yield Trust, Dexion Commodities Ld EUR Shares, Dexion Commodities Ld GBP Shares, Dexion Commodities Ld USD Shares, Independent News & Media, Parity Group, Quorum Oil and Gas Technology Fund Ltd., Telefonica SA, Valiant Petroleum

UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS

M4 Money Supply (09:30)
M4 Sterling Lending (09:30)
Mortgage Approvals (09:30)
PMI Construction (09:30)
Net Consumer Credit (09:30)

FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Fresnillo, Glanbia, H & T Group, Highcroft Investment, Mount Engineering, Sony Corp.

FINAL EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Aegis Group, Bioquell, Booker Group, Brammer, C&C Group, Capital Gearing Trust, Development Securities, First Derivatives, Headlam Group, Healthcare Locums, Hill and Smith, Hilton Food, Hygea VCT, Intertek Group, Judges Scientific, Lees Foods, London and Associated Properties, Marks & Spencer Group, Marshalls, Martin Currie Portfolio Trust, Mothercare, National Grid, Pace, Pacific Assets Trust, Pinewood-Shepperton, Quarto Group, Scottish Mortgage Inv Trust, Slingsby H.C, Spectris, Staffline Group, Vindon Healthcare, Vodafone Group, Xaar

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European Markets Report

Euro remains weak across the board

In a normal market yesterday’s positive US construction spending figures for April which showed an increase of 2.7%, the biggest rise in 10 years, should have been enough to allay investor concerns about economic recovery in the world’s largest economy.

However these are not normal markets and with continuing fears about problems in the banking sector in Europe, tensions in the Middle East and a possible slow down in China not helping, sentiment remains fragile and risk aversion remains the favoured play with the Euro hitting fresh 4 year lows against the US dollar.

The latest financial stability report from the European Central Bank has warned of further bank write downs of up to €195bn in the next 18 months, as European banks continue to wrestle with their exposure to sovereign losses.

The single currency was further hit by a weekend report by the London based Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR), which suggested that the only way for Greece to escape its current debt problems would be to leave the Euro. The CEBR suggests that this move is all but inevitable, and that French and German banks would be hardest hit.

Economic data didn’t provide any respite either with EU unemployment increasing to 10.1%, and German retail sales for April declining year on year by 3.1% against an forecasted decline of 0.7%.

The pound’s fortunes have been somewhat better over the past 24 hours with UK manufacturing reaching its highest level since September 1994, posting eight successive monthly gains driven by near record export orders to China, Europe, the Middle East and the US. These figures helped push the pound to near one month highs against a basket of currencies.

Political instability in Japan will weigh a little on the yen after last nights resignation of Japanese Prime Minister Hatoyama as the tripartite coalition looks for a successor.

EURUSD – another 4 year low against the US dollar at 1.2112 yesterday, however the lack of follow through again prompted another rally, this time towards the channel line resistance at 1.2360, which has so far been rebuffed. The markets appear to be somewhat nervous about possible central bank intervention, each marginal new low being followed by a sharp rally.
The 1.2135 level remains the proverbial line in the sand, and we need a daily close below here to set off a move towards the 1.1700 level, and 2005 lows.
For now this key 50% Fibonacci level has kept the declines at bay, but with rallies becoming shallower the risk still remains for an eventual break.
The Euro needs to see a break above the 1.2450/60 level for a move towards 1.2700 to unfold.

GBPUSD – the pound continues to benefit from increasingly positive economic data. Yesterdays early slip towards trend line support 1.4440/50 provoked the rally we were looking for and the move towards the 1.4780 level. While we stay above trend line support which is now at 1.4480, the odds continue to favour a test higher toward the 1.4780 level, and possibly even 1.4850.
Key support level remains around the 1.4230/50 level and remains the key barrier to any further sterling declines in the short-term. The 1.4000 level remains a key support on a monthly close.

EURGBP – the positive sterling data and negative Euro data pushed the Euro below the key 0.8400 2 year lows yesterday. Now that the single currency has closed below this key level further Euro losses look extremely likely. The next target remains the 0.8250 level on the way towards the 0.8170 level.
The 0.8170 level is a 50% retracement of the up move from the 2007 lows at 0.6537 to the 2008 highs at 0.9801.

USDJPY – the yen continues to chop between the support around 90.70/80 area and the recent highs around 91.75. The importance of the 200 day moving average is currently being neutralised by the current choppiness, but while the currency pair stays above its trend line support currently at 89.80, the potential for a higher US dollar remains. The recent political instability is likely to weigh a little on the yen as well.
The 92.80 level remains the next target while above 89.80 and the recent range support around the 90.70/80 area.

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US Markets Report

Dow sunk by late sell-off

Wall Street succumbed to a late sell-off Tuesday, dragging the Dow Jones back close to 10,000 despite some encouraging economic data.

The blue chip index trading above 10,200 after lunch as investors welcomed a 2.7% increase in US construction spending during April, the largest increase for nearly six years.

Even a drop in the Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index to 59.7% in May from 60.4 the previous month was better than expected.

Stocks overcame early pressure caused by worse than anticipated data on Chinese manufacturing. China’s Purchasing Managers’ index fell to 53.9 in May from a reading of 55.7 in April.

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank warned that lenders in the eurozone could face up to €195bn in a second wave of potential loan losses over the next 18 months.

Eventually, the sellers returned. Chevron and Exxon Mobil took a hiding as oil prices fell, while sentiment was soured by BP’s 15% slump. It still hasn’t figured out how to stop the leak in the Gulf of Mexico.

The oil giant's market value has now dropped by one-third, or some £40bn, since the crisis began on 20 April with the explosion on the Deepwater Horizon rig that killed eleven people.

Oil services and exploration companies fell in sympathy. Anadarko Petroleum, Halliburton and Diamond Offshore Drilling were among the worst performers.

Across the markets, the Dow Jones ended the session down 112 points at 10,024, the Nasdaq Composite fell 34 points, or 1.5%, to 2,222, while the broad-based S&P 500 was off 18 at 1,070.

On the corporate front, the future of Prudential’s bid for AIG’s Asian business looks in disarray after the US insurer refused to renegotiate the $35.5bn offer down to nearer $30bn.

AIG is already considering other options for AIA, including floating it or retaining it as part of the group.

Hewlett-Packard announced it plans to cut 9,000 jobs and take a $1bn financial charge, while Apple rose after it said Monday that iPad sales have topped 2 million since its launch in the United States on 3 April.

Covidien is acquiring medical device manufacturer ev3 for $2.6bn. Bid rumours boosted the share price of Radioshack.

Elsewhere, the Bank of Canada upped its benchmark interest rate by a quarter-point to 0.5%, the first rate hike in nearly three years. The bank moved its overnight lending rate 25 basis points higher, to re-establish the “normal functioning of the overnight market,” it said in a statement.


S&P 500 - Risers
Radioshack Corp. (RSH) $21.01 +2.79%
Hershey Foods Corp. (HSY) $48.00 +2.56%
Newmont Min Corp. (NEM) $54.64 +1.52%
Limited Brands Inc. (LTD) $25.23 +1.49%
Apple Inc. (AAPL) $260.31 +1.34%

S&P 500 - Fallers
Anadarko Petroleum (APC) $42.10 -19.55%
Tenet Hlthcre Corp. (THC) $4.72 -17.48%
FMC Technologies Inc. (FTI) $49.33 -15.17%
Halliburton Co (HAL) $21.15 -14.82%
Cameron International Corp. (CAM) $31.89 -11.91%

Dow Jones I.A - Risers
Kraft Foods Inc. (KFT) $28.90 +1.05%
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) $58.76 +0.79%
Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT) $50.92 +0.71%
Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) $25.89 +0.35%
AT&T Inc. (T) $24.33 +0.12%

Dow Jones I.A - Fallers
Alcoa Inc. (AA) $11.19 -3.87%
JP Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM) $38.54 -2.63%
Du Pont E I De Nemours and Co. (DD) $35.24 -2.57%
Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) $59.27 -2.45%
General Electric Co. (GE) $15.98 -2.26%

Nasdaq 100 - Risers
Apple Inc. (AAPL) $260.31 +1.34%
Ross Stores Inc. (ROST) $53.04 +1.23%
Express Scripts Inc. (ESRX) $101.66 +1.05%
Intuitive Surgical Inc. (ISRG) $325.36 +0.80%
Vodafone Group Plc ADR (VOD) $20.24 +0.70%

Nasdaq 100 - Fallers
Garmin Ltd. (GRMN) $32.14 -4.29%
Sears Holdings Corp. (SHLD) $84.65 -4.13%
Sandisk Corp. (SNDK) $44.92 -3.65%
Seagate Technology (STX) $14.91 -2.91%
Applied Materials Inc. (AMAT) $12.58 -2.63%

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Wednesday newspaper round-up: Prudential scraps AIA deal, BP

Prudential on Wednesday said it had decided to walk away from an agreement to buy AIG’s Asian business after the board of the US insurer voted against cutting the purchase price from $35.5bn, the FT reports.

Prudential said in its statement that terminating the agreement with AIG would cost it £152.6m ($225m) in break-up fees. Advisory, underwriting and other fees related to the planned transaction would add another £297.4m. The British insurer said it would scrap a deeply-discounted $21bn rights issue designed to fund the acquisition.

AIG’s board voted 10-2 against a proposal to cut the price of AIA to $30.375bn. Instead, it favoured reviving plans for a partial sale of AIA in an Asian stock market listing, the FT adds.

The Times reports that Prudential was last night facing shareholder calls for a boardroom clearout and a full strategic review after the insurer’s $35.5bn bid for AIA in Asia collapsed over price. Three of the Pru’s biggest institutional owners said that the position of Tidjane Thiam, the chief executive, was untenable after the insurer failed to negotiate a last-minute cut of $4.6bn to the AIA bid price. They said they expected Thiam, the architect and the driving force behind the Pru’s ambitious Asian expansion drive, to resign within weeks, the Times reports.

BP’s long-term credibility was at stake last night as its chief executive fought to halt a headlong slide in its stock price and the Obama Administration announced a criminal investigation into the Deepwater Horizon oil disaster. After losing a third of its value in six weeks, BP is expected to promise shareholders this week that their annual dividend — more than $10bn last year — will be maintained. Eric Holder, the US Attorney-General, announced a criminal and civil investigation, to be conducted by the FBI and other federal agencies, after meeting local officials in New Orleans, the Times reports.

Activity at British factories increased at the fastest rate in more than 15 years in May, matching April’s rate of growth, but the data was clouded by fears over inflationary pressures. The Purchasing Managers’ Index of activity at British manufacturers remained at 58 in May, the highest since September 1994. It has been above the 50-mark, which indicates that activity is rising rather than falling, for eight months as manufacturers take advantage of the weak pound to boost exports, the Times reports.

The European Union could seize control of green taxes across the continent in order to make low-carbon energy cheaper. Biofuels and wind or wave power would become less costly than energy produced from fossil fuels, under draft plans obtained by Reuters, reports the Telegraph.

The Takeover Panel has launched a review of the rules governing mergers and acquisitions in the wake of Kraft's £11.7bn purchase of Cadbury earlier this year. The public consultation could lead to major changes in takeovers in this country, including raising the minimum acceptance threshold beyond "50% plus one" and restricting the fees paid to investment bankers, the Independent reports.

Yukio Hatoyama, Japan prime minister, on Wednesday announced his resignation along with ruling Democratic party heavyweight Ichiro Ozawa to take responsibility for recent fundraising scandals and the mishandling of a US marine base relocation plan.The departure of the prime minister less than a year after he led the Democratic party to a historic general election victory over the long-ruling Liberal Democratic party could have far reaching implications for the development of Japanese politics, the FT reports.
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