China GDP Grows 11.9%, Highlighting Overheating Risk (Update2)

By Bloomberg News
April 15 (Bloomberg) -- China’s economic growth accelerated to the fastest pace in almost three years in the first quarter, highlighting overheating risks that may prompt the government to scrap the yuan’s peg to the dollar.
Gross domestic product rose 11.9 percent from a year earlier, the statistics bureau said at a briefing in Beijing today. That was more than the median 11.7 percent estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of 24 economists.
A lower-than-estimated gain in consumer prices complicates a debate in Beijing on when to raise interest rates, cut in 2008 to counter the financial crisis. Australia and India have already moved and Singapore yesterday allowed a one-time revaluation of its currency as the region winds back stimulus policies to limit asset-bubble and inflation risks.
"The next policy move remains likely to be a yuan revaluation," said Glenn Maguire, chief Asia-Pacific economist at Societe Generale SA in Hong Kong. Inflation data may lead the central bank to delay an interest-rate increase until the second half of the year, he said.
The Shanghai Composite Index swung between losses and gains, falling 0.1 percent as of the 11:30 a.m. local-time trading break. Non-deliverable yuan forwards climbed 0.1 percent to
6.6161 per dollar, suggesting the currency may strengthen 3.2 percent in the next 12 months.

Inflation, Industrial Output

Consumer prices rose 2.4 percent in March from a year earlier, today’s data showed, compared with 2.7 percent in February. Economists’ median estimate was 2.6 percent.
Industrial production climbed 18.1 percent in March, less than a 20.7 percent gain in the first two months, and retail sales increased 18 percent, today’s data showed. Car sales leapt
76 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, with Mercedes-Benz (China) Ltd. reporting a doubling.
"The case for policy tightening remains intact given the risks of China’s economy overheating," said Brian Jackson, a Hong Kong-based emerging-market strategist at Royal Bank of Canada. "The fall in inflation in March may persuade policy makers to stay on hold a little longer."
The last time China’s growth accelerated to more than 11 percent, in the first quarter of 2006, the central bank raised interest rates within a month to curb lending and investment.
The inflation rate was only 0.8 percent.

Relying on Stimulus

China’s cabinet yesterday signaled caution in ending crisis policies even after exports jumped 29 percent in the first quarter. Economic growth was largely driven by stimulus policies and a comparison with low levels in 2009, the State Council said.
Policy makers pledged to do more to rein in the housing market after property prices rose by a record in March.
Urban fixed-asset investment increased 26.4 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, the statistics bureau said today. Producer prices rose 5.9 percent in March, after climbing 5.4 percent in February.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner’s unscheduled meeting with Chinese Vice Premier Wang Qishan in Beijing on April 8 fueled speculation that the yuan’s 21-month-old peg at about 6.83 per dollar may be scrapped amid calls in Congress to brand China a currency manipulator.
Singapore’s revaluation may have been prompted by expectations China is preparing for yuan gains, Tim Condon, chief Asia economist at ING Groep NV in Singapore, said yesterday. China may allow the yuan to appreciate by June 30 to help curb inflation, a Bloomberg News survey of analysts shows.

Bubble Concern

Residential and commercial real-estate prices in 70 cities climbed 11.7 percent in March from a year earlier, the most since data began in 2005. Guangzhou-based Evergrande Real Estate Group Ltd. said sales jumped 175 percent in the first quarter.
Some investors, including hedge fund manager Jim Chanos, already see a property bubble in China that could reverberate around the world if it bursts.
Instead of raising rates, China has this year targeted a 22 percent reduction in new loans from a record of $1.4 trillion and twice asked lenders to set aside more cash as reserves.
Deputy governor Zhu Min said last month that China will be "very careful" with interest rates because they are a "heavy- duty weapon" and alternative measures are working well.
The GDP report may overstate overheating risks, DBS Bank Ltd. said yesterday, estimating that quarter-on-quarter growth cooled to 9.4 percent after peaking between April and June in 2009.