S&P May Downgrade Greece Within Month on Budget Risks (Update1)

By Simon Kennedy and Maria Petrakis
Feb. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Standard & Poor’s may lower Greece’s credit rating again by the end of March as a weak economy and political opposition threaten the country’s ability to cut the European Union’s largest budget deficit.
"We believe that a further downgrade of Greece of one to two notches is possible within a month," S&P analysts led by Marko Mrsnik in London said in a statement late yesterday.
The euro fell to a one-year low against the yen as the threat of a downgrade raised concern that Greece will need the EU’s assistance to avoid defaulting on its debt. The premium investors demand to hold the nation’s 10-year securities instead of Germany’s rose yesterday to the most in more than two weeks as unions staged a strike to resist budget cuts.
"A downgrade would make it much more difficult for Greece to turn things around," said Andrew Brenner, managing director at Guggenheim Capital Markets LLC, a New-York based brokerage for institutional investors. "It would also continue to put pressure on the euro."
The euro slumped 1 percent to 120.76 yen as of 12:15 p.m.
in Tokyo after earlier falling to 120.62, the weakest since Feb.
24, 2009. The 16-nation currency slid 0.4 percent versus the dollar to $1.3483.

Struggled to Persuade

S&P cut Greece’s rating in December from A- and signaled at the time it may reduce it again from BBB+. The government has since struggled to persuade investors it can slash its budget deficit from last year’s 12.7 percent of gross domestic product without outside help or default.
S&P said the country’s willingness to keep funding itself in the commercial bond market is a key part of the assessment.
The rating could be pressured by lower profitability at the country’s banks or a decline in public support for the budget plan, it said. EU assistance could be a support if it was likely to lead to a "sustained reduction" in borrowing costs.
"Downside risks for Greece’s real and nominal growth are likely to increase the size of needed fiscal consolidation, raising questions about the feasibility of the country’s ambitious budget goals," S&P said. "Political risks for the timely implementation of the entirety of fiscal reforms continue to be material."

Moody’s, Fitch

Moody’s Investors Service and Fitch Ratings declined to immediately comment on their ratings for Greece.
The EU’s statistics office said late yesterday that Greece failed to notify the EU about a 2001 swap contract that helped mask the size of its debt and told the EU in 2008 that the government was prohibited from using off-balance sheet derivatives. The EU accounting watchdog last week ordered Greece to provide information on its swaps as it investigates whether the country used derivatives to hide the extent of its budget deficit.
Greek air-traffic controllers, customs and tax officials, train drivers, doctors at state-run hospitals and school teachers walked off the job yesterday to protest spending cuts.
Police fired tear-gas and clashed with demonstrators in central Athens after a march organized by labor unions.
Greek bonds have slumped, driving up borrowing costs, as investors fear the government will fail to meet its pledge to cut its budget gap to 8.7 percent of GDP this year. It aims to cut the deficit below the EU’s 3 percent limit in 2012.

Budget Pledge

Prime Minister George Papandreou’s government needs to sell 53 billion euros ($72 billion) of debt this year, the equivalent of 20 percent of GDP. The yield on the country’s two-year note yesterday rose to the most since Feb. 9.
EU governments are looking for guarantees that Papandreou will slash spending before they spell out what help they may offer. EU and European Central Bank officials are in Athens this week to verify that budget cuts are being implemented.
Under proposals adopted this month by euro-area finance ministers, the Greek government will have to take additional measures to cut its budget gap if it fails to satisfy the European Commission next month that its current strategy is on track. These may include higher value-added tax, a levy on luxury goods, higher energy taxes and spending cuts, they said.
German, French and Greek voters are "in denial" about Greece’s ability to get its deficit under control without external aid, Barry Eichengreen, an economics professor at the University of California at Berkeley and author of a 2006 history of the European economy, said in a Bloomberg Television interview yesterday.
Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou said Feb. 23 that the government will do "everything it needs to meet" its targets and that any decisions on possible new measures will be announced after talks with European governments.
Greece’s financial distress could be exacerbated at the end of this year when the ECB is due to revert to old collateral rules that were loosened during the global recession.
If Moody’s cuts its credit rating to the same level as the other major ratings companies, Greek government bonds would no longer be eligible as collateral at the ECB, making it more difficult for the nation to borrow.

"If Moody’s cuts its credit rating to the same level as the other major
ratings companies, Greek government bonds would no longer be eligible
as collateral at the ECB, making it more difficult for the nation to
borrow."

The Euro carry trade anyone? This tid bit would damage the Euro.

Feb. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Greece’s debt rating may be cut within a month as it struggles to pare the European Union’s largest budget deficit, driving up borrowing costs and renewing pressure on the euro. Standard & Poor’s said late yesterday it may lower its BBB+ rating by the end of March and Moody’s Investors Service said today it may reduce its A2 grade in a few months. The warnings further complicate the government’s effort to persuade investors that it can slash its fiscal shortfall from last year’s 12.7 percent of gross domestic product. The euro slumped to a one-year low against the yen, most stocks dropped and the premium on Greek 10-year bonds over German debt widened to the most since Feb. 8 on concern that the country may need EU assistance to avoid missing debt payments. Unions yesterday staged a strike to protest Prime Minister George Papandreou’s drive to slash spending.

“It’s getting more difficult than anticipated for the Greek government to implement the spending cuts it promised,” said Susumu Kato, chief economist in Tokyo at Credit Agricole Securities Asia. Further downgrades “may spread sovereign concerns through other European nations,” he said. The country’s willingness to keep funding itself in the commercial bond market is key to S&P’s assessment, the company said. The rating could be pressured by lower profitability at the country’s banks or a decline in public support for the budget plan, it said. EU assistance could help if it was likely to lead to a “sustained reduction” in borrowing costs.


Two Notches
“We believe that a further downgrade of Greece of one to two notches is possible within a month,” S&P analysts led by Marko Mrsnik in London said in a statement. Pierre Cailleteau, managing director of sovereign risk at Moody’s, said in an interview in Tokyo today it may act “in a few months” if policy makers appear to be deviating from their deficit-reduction plan. At the same time, Moody’s may stabilize its rating if Greece follows through with its austerity measures, he said. “We have to let the government implement its plans,” Cailleteau said. “You can’t expect a government to be able to turn around public finances in a few days.” S&P cut Greece’s rating in December from A- and signaled at the time it may reduce it again from BBB+. Moody’s lowered its rating by one step the same month.


ECB Rules
If Moody’s cuts its credit rating to the same level as the other major ratings companies, it could exacerbate Greece’s financial distress at the end of this year when the European Central Bank is due to revert to old collateral rules that were loosened during the global recession. Greek government bonds would then no longer be eligible as collateral at the ECB, making it even more difficult for the nation to borrow. The euro dropped to 120.51 yen as of 11:20 a.m. in London from 122.03 yen in New York yesterday. It earlier touched 120.24 yen, the lowest since Feb. 24, 2009. The single currency has fallen about 6 percent against the dollar this year on concern Greece’s fiscal woes may extend to Spain, Portugal and other European nations seeking to pare budget gaps. Credit-default swaps protecting the debt of Greece rose 10 basis points to 392, according to CMA DataVision. The spread between 10-year Greek bonds and similar-maturity German debt widened by 13 basis points, or 0.13 percentage point, to 352 basis points.


Tear Gas
Papandreou’s government is running into opposition at home to its strategy. Air-traffic controllers, customs and tax officials, train drivers, doctors at state-run hospitals and school teachers walked off the job yesterday to protest spending cuts. Police fired tear-gas and clashed with demonstrators in central Athens after a march organized by labor unions. Greek bonds have slumped, driving up borrowing costs, as investors fear the government will fail to meet its pledge to cut its budget gap to 8.7 percent of GDP this year. It aims to cut the deficit below the EU’s 3 percent limit in 2012. The premium investors demand to hold Greece’s 10-year securities instead of Germany’s rose to the most in more than two weeks. The government needs to sell 53 billion euros ($72 billion) of debt this year, the equivalent of 20 percent of GDP. The yield on the country’s two-year note yesterday rose to the most since Feb. 9. EU governments are looking for guarantees that Papandreou will slash spending before they spell out what help they may offer. EU and ECB officials visited Athens this week to verify that budget cuts are being implemented.


Additional Measures
Under proposals adopted this month by euro-area finance ministers, the Greek government will have to take additional measures to cut its budget gap if it fails to satisfy the European Commission next month that its current strategy is on track. These may include higher value-added tax, a levy on luxury goods, higher energy taxes and spending cuts, they said. “There will be some conditions attached” to European assistance for Greece, Cailleteau said. “I don’t see the evidence that would justify these kinds of assertions that Europe will not help Greece.” German, French and Greek voters are “in denial” about Greece’s ability to get its deficit under control without external aid, Barry Eichengreen, an economics professor at the University of California at Berkeley and author of a 2006 history of the European economy, said in a Bloomberg Television interview yesterday. Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou said Feb. 23 that the government will do “everything it needs to meet” its targets and that any decisions on possible new measures will be announced after talks with European governments.