Chinese Credit Growth - A disccusion taken from the GROUP ANLZ discussion board.

I
just wanted to highlight the Loan to Deposit Ratios and if anyone else
thinks that Chinese Credit growth has more room to grow. IF there is a
connection between loan growth and equities, to what levels will we see
Chinese equities reach before a correction?

Clark this would be a good exercise for you.







+------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

China’s May Money Supply, Deposits, and Loans (Table)
2009-06-12 01:18:27.864 GMT


By Jay Wang
June 12 (Bloomberg) -- Following is a table for China’s
money supply, deposits, and loans in May released by the
Beijing-based People’s Bank of China.
*T
============================================================================
May April March Feb. Jan. Dec. Nov.
2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2008 2008
============================================================================
------------------------ YoY% -------------------------
M2 25.7% 26.0% 25.5% 20.5% 18.8% 17.8% 14.8%
M1 18.7% 17.5% 17.0% 10.9% 6.7% 9.1% 6.8%
M0 11.2% 11.3% 10.9% 8.3% 12.0% 12.7% 9.0%
Deposits 26.4% 26.1% 25.7% 23.0% 22.9% 19.3% 19.3%
Yuan Deposits 26.7% 26.2% 25.7% 23.0% 23.0% 19.7% 19.9%
Loans 28.3% 27.1% 27.0% 21.8% 19.8% 18.0% 15.4%
Yuan Loans 30.6% 29.7% 29.8% 24.2% 21.3% 18.8% 16.0%
-------------------- Trillion Yuan --------------------
M2 54.82 54.05 53.06 50.71 49.61 47.52 45.86
M1 18.20 17.82 17.65 16.65 16.52 16.62 15.78
============================================================================
May April March Feb. Jan. Dec. Nov.
2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2008 2008
============================================================================
-------------------- Trillion Yuan --------------------
M0 3.36 3.43 3.37 3.51 4.11 3.42 3.16
Deposits 56.03 54.69 53.63 51.16 49.47 47.84 47.43
Yuan Deposits 54.63 53.29 52.26 49.81 48.16 46.62 46.24
Loans 37.98 37.20 36.56 34.64 33.60 32.01 31.27
Yuan Loans 36.21 35.55 34.96 33.06 31.99 30.35 29.57
-------------------- Billion Yuan ---------------------
New Yuan Loans 664.5 591.8 1,890.0 1,070.0 1,620.0 771.8 476.9
============================================================================
Note 1: M2 includes M1 and quasi money.
M1 includes M0 and demand deposits.
M0 is money in circulation.
Note 2: Figures are not seasonally adjusted.

Source: People’s Bank of China.
*T

For Related News and Information:
See {ALLX CNMS } for China’s money supply figures.
Top economic news: {TECO }
Top China news: {TOP CH }
Stories on China economy: {NI CHECO }
China economic statistics: {ECST CH }
China economic calendar: {ECO CH }
China economic forecasts: {ECFC CH }
Most-read economic news: {MNI ECO }
Most-read tables: {MNI TABLE }

--Editor: Marco Babic

To contact the reporter on this story:
Jay Wang in Singapore at +65-6212-1880 or
jwang298@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Marco Babic at +65 6212-1886 or mbabic@bloomberg.net

Reply to Your PostDelete Post

Post #2

You wroteon July 4, 2009 at 12:23pm
If
anyone wants the original article or the numbers in a spreadsheet let
me know (since it may hard to line up the numbers in this post)

Reply to Your PostDelete Post

Post #3

Pat Ambrus (Fordham) wroteon July 4, 2009 at 12:31pm
Alex can you send me the excel format? Id like to take a better look at this.

Reply to PatMark as IrrelevantReportDelete Post

Post #4

You wroteon July 4, 2009 at 6:45pm
ah
crap i didn't think anyone would ask for it this soon lol. Ill add it
on my list of things to do for next week. I haven't actually prepared
one yet :p

Reply to Your PostDelete Post

Post #5

You wroteon July 4, 2009 at 6:46pm
In the mean time ill forward you the article

Reply to Your PostDelete Post

Post #6

Pat Ambrus (Fordham) wroteon July 7, 2009 at 11:14pm
Btw, I managed to convert this to Excel format, If you want me to e-mail it out let me knwo.

Reply to PatMark as IrrelevantReportDelete Post

Post #7

You wrote2 seconds ago
Lots
of high investor sentiment in Asia, I know long term prospects are good
for sure, but with this much money and sentiment aimed at asia, its
bound to get bubbly if the Chinese government keeps pumping money into
the system.


as noted above we should monitor Chinese credit very careful along with equity growth.


-Alex

--------------------------
ING launches fund to tap Asia growth

By: NUNTAWUN POLKUAMDEE
Published: 9/07/2009 at 12:00 AM
Newspaper section: Business

Investors
are looking to Asia to outperform over the next several quarters while
the US and European economies continue to deal with the fallout from
last year's financial meltdown.

Announcing the ING Greater China
Fund, from left: Jumpol Saimala, a senior vice-president of ING Mutual
Fund; Monchaya Ratchatakul, an ING fund manager; and Tor
Indhavivadhana, senior vice-president for the mutual fund and
investment consulting department.

The MSCI Asia ex-Japan index
posted a 30% gain for the second quarter, beating the 24% increase
posted by emerging markets and the 17.6% rise in the AC World index.

Credit
in part goes to China, which is pumping hundreds of billions of dollars
into its economy to boost domestic consumption and investment to help
mitigate the impact of slowing global trade.

Moves by the
Chinese government to forge closer economic ties with Taiwan are hoped
to lead to a wave of new cross-border investment between the countries.

China,
Taiwan and Hong Kong are all likely to see continued growth thanks to
stimulus spending and the plan to strengthen economic ties across the
Taiwan Strait, said Jumpol Saimala, a senior vice-president of ING
Mutual Fund.

The firm yesterday launched its new ING Thai
Greater China foreign investment fund to appeal to investors looking to
increase their exposure to the Chinese, Taiwanese and Hong Kong markets.

The
new fund is a feeder fund investing in the ING L Invest Greater China
fund, which maintains holdings in 40 companies listed in the three
markets. The master fund has posted a 54.99% return over the past three
months.

Initial subscriptions for the ING Thai Greater China fund will run until July 17, with a minimum investment of 2,000 baht.

Investor sentiment had improved considerably since the end of last year, particularly in Asian markets, said Mr Jumpol.

For
the year to the end of June, the MSCI Asia ex-Japan index posted a
34.93% return, compared with 5.41% for the MSCI World and 1.76% for the
S&P500 indices.

"Asia continues to grow faster than other regions, and the strongest in the region is Greater China," he said.

Loan
growth in China over the first four months, including funding for new
infrastructure and transport projects, was 26.17 trillion baht.

Over
the next 15 years, more than 220 million people are expected to move
into the cities from the Chinese countryside, leading to sharp growth
in demand for banking, property and other services, said Mr Jumpol.

In
the near future, ING plans to launch a new commodities fund investing
in both soft and hard commodities within the next two months.

For the local market, investment trends over the second half of the year favour local and foreign government bonds, he said.

The
equities market is likely to be volatile over the next several months,
with a correction likely as investors lock in gains from the second
quarter.