ECB Preview: Draghi Still Waiting for Rajoy

ECB Preview: Draghi Still Waiting for Rajoy

We expect the ECB to refrain from further policy easing this month, although an easing bias remains.
Mario Draghi is still waiting for Spain to make an official request for help from the ESM and ECB. He might have to wait for a while.
Additional measures may soon be needed. The October PMI data confirmed that the global recovery is surpassing the euro area for the time being.
The market is pricing almost zero probability of a deposit rate cut at the November meeting.
Even a small easing step or just a hint that the ECB is moving towards further action is likely to be perceived positively by risk markets.