(BN) Payrolls Fall More Than Forecast, Unemployment Rises (Update4)

By Shobhana Chandra
July 2 (Bloomberg) -- Employers in the U.S. cut 467,000 jobs in June, the unemployment rate rose and hourly earnings stagnated, offering little evidence the Obama administration’s stimulus package is shoring up the labor market.
The payroll decline was more than forecast and followed a 322,000 drop in May, according to Labor Department figures released today in Washington. The jobless rate jumped to 9.5 percent, the highest since August 1983, from 9.4 percent.
Unemployment is projected to keep rising for the rest of the year just as the income boost from the stimulus package fades, undermining prospects for a sustained rebound in household purchases, analysts said. As companies from General Motors Corp. to Kimberly-Clark Corp. cut costs, the lack of jobs will restrain growth.
"This will be another jobless recovery," said John Silvia, chief economist at Wachovia Corp. in Charlotte, North Carolina. "We may get positive economic growth driven largely by federal spending, but people on the street will say, ‘Where are the jobs?’"
Stocks slid after the report, with the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index dropping 2.2 percent to 903.43 at 10:16 a.m. in New York. Treasuries rose, sending yields on benchmark 10-year notes to 3.512 percent from 3.538 percent late yesterday.

Unemployment Claims

The number of Americans filing claims for unemployment benefits last week fell in line with forecasts, Labor also said, indicating firings remain elevated. Initial jobless claims dropped by 16,000 to 614,000 in the week ended June 27, from a revised 630,000 the week before.
Revisions added 8,000 to payroll figures previously reported for May and April.
A separate report today from the Commerce Department showed that orders placed at U.S. factories climbed for a third time in four months in May on rising demand for aircraft, machinery and computers. Bookings gained 1.2 percent, the most since June 2008, after a 0.5 percent increase in April.
Payrolls were forecast to drop 365,000 after a 345,000 decrease initially reported for May, according to the median of 79 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Estimates ranged from declines of 150,000 to 500,000. Job losses peaked at 741,000 in January, the most since 1949.
The jobless rate was projected to climb to 9.6 percent from 9.4 percent. Forecasts ranged from 9.3 percent to 9.7 percent.
By the end of the year, unemployment will reach 10 percent, according to the median forecast of economists surveyed last month.

6.5 Million Jobs

The world’s largest economy has lost about 6.5 million jobs since the recession began in December 2007. That’s the biggest drop in any post-World War II economic slump.
Today’s jobs report showed factory payrolls fell by 136,000 after decreasing 156,000 the prior month. Economists forecast a drop of 150,000. The drop included a decline of 26,500 jobs in auto manufacturing and parts industries.
More firings are in the works following the bankruptcies of GM and Chrysler LLC as shutdowns ripple through auto-parts makers and car dealers.
Payrolls at builders fell 79,000 after decreasing 48,000.
Service industries, which include banks, insurance companies, restaurants and retailers, subtracted 244,000 workers after falling 107,000. Retail payrolls decreased by 21,000 after a 17,600 drop. Financial firms reduced payrolls by 27,000, after a 30,000 drop the prior month.
Government payrolls decreased by 52,000, the biggest decline since July 2007, after dropping 10,000 the prior month.

Temporary Workers

The decrease reflects the layoff of workers hired on a temporary basis to prepare for the 2010 census. The U.S. Census Bureau has said it will hire more than 1.4 million people over the next year to conduct the population count that happens once every 10 years.
Unemployment will "remain painfully high for several more years," Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Janet Yellen said this week. "I expect that we will turn the growth corner sometime later this year, but I am not optimistic that the economy will spring back to normal any time soon."
Tax cuts and Social Security payments under the stimulus plan propped up incomes last quarter, supporting household purchases. Consumer spending rose in May as earnings climbed 1.4 percent, the most in a year.
Still, the wealth destruction caused by the housing and stock-market slumps prompted Americans to rebuild nest eggs. The savings rate in May surged to a 15-year high.

Household Purchases

Household purchases, which account for about 70 percent of the economy, dropped at a 0.6 percent annual rate last quarter before growing again in the second half of the year, according to the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg in early June. Purchases rose at a 1.4 percent pace in the first three months of 2009.
The auto industry isn’t alone in trimming jobs. Kimberly-Clark, the maker of Huggies diapers and Kleenex tissues, plans to cut 1,600 jobs worldwide by year-end. About 800 salaried employees will leave Deere & Co., the world’s largest maker of agricultural equipment, under a voluntary program.
"These actions, while difficult, are necessary to help us emerge from this demanding economic environment," Kimberly-Clark’s Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Tom Falk said in a June 25 statement. The company’s net income has declined for six straight quarters.
3M Co., the maker of Post-it Notes and Scotch Tape, reduced positions and offered early retirement to workers, while Dow Chemical Co., the largest U.S. chemical maker, is cutting jobs following the acquisition of Rohm & Haas Co.

Government, Services

Service providers and government agencies are also looking to lower costs. Gannett Co., the largest U.S. newspaper publisher, yesterday announced it will eliminate about 1,400 jobs by July 9. California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger said he’ll force state workers to take a third unpaid day off everymonth to conserve cash and will order lawmakers into an emergency session to tackle the state’s growing budget deficit.
Today’s report also showed the average work week fell to 33 hours, the lowest level since records began in 1964, from 33.1 hours in May. Average weekly hours worked by production workers rose to 39.5 hours from 39.4 hours, while overtime held at 2.8 hours. That brought the average weekly earnings down to $611.49
from $613.34.
Workers’ average hourly wages held at $18.53 for a second month. Hourly earnings were 2.7 percent higher than June 2008, the smallest gain since September 2005. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had forecast a 0.1 percent increase from the prior month and a 2.9 percent gain for the 12-month period.