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 Australian And Chinese Data Drive Asia Trading

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Join date : 2012-01-25

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PostSubject: Australian And Chinese Data Drive Asia Trading    Australian And Chinese Data Drive Asia Trading  Icon_minitimeWed Oct 24, 2012 11:07 am

Australian And Chinese Data Drive Asia Trading



Risk appetite was marginally weaker following the sell-off in US equities and EUR yesterday. Asia regional indices were slightly mixed as Nikkei fell -0.67%, Hang Seng base line at -0.03% and Shanghai up a meager +0.07%. The fall was deeper until the data release from Australia and China which provided support. In Australia, the Q3 CPI increased 1.4% q/q vs.1% exp (0.5% prior) while core readings came in at 2.4% y/y vs. 2.2% exp. AUDUSD quickly jumped 20 pips on the release leveling off around 1.0310. Market expectation for a rate cut at the Nov. meeting declined after the considerably higher inflation read leaving us also leaning towards no cuts. Risky assets got another boost shortly afterwards, as private sector flash PMI estimates for China surprised to the upside. In China, the HSBC flash manufacturing PMI remained within contraction zone (below 50 threshold), but increased to 49.1 in October from 47.9 in September. The readings for the major sub-indexes, including production, new orders and new export orders remained below the 50 level but contraction was at a slower pace. These numbers combined with the earlier GDP release at 7.4% indicated that the Chinese economy is now stabilizing, which also decreased the probability of additional monetary policy easing (monetary and fiscal policy will remain supportive). There is a wealth of data today including the critical European PMIs then the FOMC policy decision. We don’t anticipate a critical adjustment to the FOMC current policy and suspect that this will be a non-event. And finally today's BoC's monetary policy report and press conference will undoubtedly provide details on just why the decision was made to keep the tightening bias language in Tuesday's policy statement.

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