Weekly Outlook for Usd

Weekly Outlook for Usd



-The much-anticipated US employment data were softer than expected, and we now expect the Fed to initiate an additional asset purchase program, as well as extend forward guidance to late 2015 at the next FOMC meeting (Thursday).
-We expect the asset purchase program to be open-ended and include UST and agency MBS; if correct, the USD is likely to face further downward pressure.
-Retail sales data on Friday may show whether the rebound in personal consumption in July continued into August or was a one-off. We expect headline RS of 0.7% m/m (cf. 0.7%) and core of 0.3% (cf. 0.3%), likely a USD positive.