Short Usd/jpy Call

Short Usd/jpy Call


-Despite the strong tendency for JPY to appreciate in August and our long-held positive JPY view, it is hard to make a short-term case for being short USD/JPY spot at current levels.
-Rather, we reopen a variant of a trade we took profit on last week - selling USD/JPY call options - to profit from our view that USD/JPY is unable to sustain rallies, but not requiring an outright fall to profit.
-We recommend writing 80 strike, three-month USD/JPY calls to earnan upfront premium of 0.77% (spot ref 78.23; vol ref 8.02%) and running a stop-loss of 2.0% on the position - i.e., we will close the trade if the revalued premium rises to 2.77% as a result of higher spot or vol. Spot rising to 81.70 would trigger the stop if it happened quickly.


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