Any Relief Rally in Eur Likely to be Short Lived

Any Relief Rally in Eur Likely to be Short Lived


Quotes from Barclays Capital:
-We think the ECB is likely to agree on a prospective bond purchase program, conditional on EFSF/ESM activation, and new measures to support bank finance, especially to SMEs, through a more flexible collateral framework and possible hints of a "funding for lending" scheme on 6 September.
-We also expect it to cut the refi rate by 25bp while leaving the deposit rate at 0%. These measures, together with our view that Spain will eventually request EFSF assistance, would be mildly EUR positive, but any relief rally is likely to be short lived.
-Our medium-term EUR bearish view remains intact, with a three-month forecast of 1.21 based on relative monetary policy consideration and our view that European policymakers would stay behind the curve to address long-term structural issues.



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