Weekly Outlook for Gbp

Weekly Outlook for Gbp


Quotes from Barclays Capital:
-The focus of the week will be the second estimate of Q2 GDP (Friday). We and the consensus expect it to be revised up to -0.5% (from -0.7%) following stronger IP and construction output data for June.
-However, this view is not universal and a surprise would matter for GBP. Other data to be published are public finance figures and CBI distributive trades. Typically, July is a surplus month and, consistent with this, the consensus expects PSNBx to print -£1.8bn.
-However, our economists believe recent economic weakness will result in a deficit and therefore forecast a PSNBx at £0.9bn. Whereas we are in line with the consensus on CBI distributive trade looking for a small improvement to 15 (previous 11), uncertainty is high given this is an Olympic month.


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