Comments in the News

MORNING NOVEMBER 15, 2010:

FX markets:

[10:19:43 15/11/10] AnalyzeCapital : “Markets are being whipsawed, with the attention firmly fixed on Ireland’s travails,” said Mitul Kotecha, head of global foreign-exchange strategy at Credit Agricole, in a note to clients.

[10:20:06 15/11/10] AnalyzeCapital : “Following a huge build up of pressure on peripheral bond markets over recent weeks, there was some relief at the end of last week as five European finance ministers, including Germany, offered financial support to Ireland,” he said. But “Irish officials maintain they do not need any aid package following discussions held [Sunday].”

[10:22:13 15/11/10] AnalyzeCapital : “We think that the [U.S. Federal Reserve’s] Treasury purchases [which began last Friday], will cap [dollar-yen] topside, and we maintain our three-month forecast of ¥82,” analysts at Barclays Capital said in a note to clients Monday.\

[10:22:33 15/11/10] AnalyzeCapital : This is opposite to daily fx's 2 year us jpy bond spread thesis


Equities:

[11:12:09 15/11/10] AnalyzeCapital : "We're susceptible to a pullback if we don't get any clarity on fiscal policy and if any of this economic data disappoints next week," said John Lynch, chief equity strategist at Wells Fargo Funds Management in Charlotte, North Carolina.

[11:12:38 15/11/10] AnalyzeCapital : "I would think you're going to see some, not all, smart money pull their investment (out of stocks) the closer we get to 1,228. These guys recognize we still have above 9 percent unemployment, sovereign credit risks, a consumer deleveraging and no clarity as to what businesses should do with their cash."

[11:13:28 15/11/10] AnalyzeCapital : This was the second time the index backed away from the 1,228 area and its chart could be drawing a bearish "double top" formation. The last retreat from that level, in April, was the start of a correction that took the S&P to its 2010 low in July.

[11:14:08 15/11/10] AnalyzeCapital : "Bush tax cuts are very important for the market," said Michael Yoshikami, president and chief investment strategist at YCMNET Advisors in Walnut Creek, California. "If they're not renewed, that could cost 0.75 percentage point per year in GDP (growth). I don't think any other proposal would have that kind of significant impact. If dividend taxes were raised, that would be a still important but more minor issue," he said.

[11:15:14 15/11/10] AnalyzeCapital : Consumer staple companies highlighted "concerns about rising commodity costs and to what extent are businesses able to pass costs through the chain," said Wells Fargo's Lynch. He pointed to businesses willing to absorb much of those price rises, "which would be consistent with my perception that earnings and margins estimates for next year are too high."


Japanese Economy:


[11:20:31 15/11/10] AnalyzeCapital : After the GDP report, Japan's economy minister wasn't in a mood to celebrate. Instead, he warned of a darker outlook. "Our economy is stalling as output is weakening," said Banri Kaieda in a written statement, according to Kyodo.

[11:20:53 15/11/10] AnalyzeCapital : time to start shorting the USD/YEN risk averse plays to the Yen is most likely over for the pair

[11:21:10 15/11/10] AnalyzeCapital : On Japan: Goldman Sachs has said it expects growth to "contract significantly" in the fourth quarter. Barclays Capital expect the economy to contract in October-December for the first time in five quarters.

[11:22:00 15/11/10] AnalyzeCapital : Kyohei Morita, chief economist at Barclays Capital Japan, isn't impressed with the government's track record so far and says he does not "expect much" from its latest stimulus package.

[11:22:07 15/11/10] AnalyzeCapital : "On balance, we believe government action is the best solution but see continued pressure on the BOJ as the most likely approach," Morita said in a note to clients.