Roubini Expects 35% to 40% Chance of U.S. Entering a Double Dip Recession

Dr. Doom himself.... I like how he has changed is double dip estimate from 40% to 35-50%. Also, as this article notes he says growth will slow and it will feel like a double dip even if it is not technically....Way to hedge your bets sir.

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(Bloomberg)--New York University Professor Nouriel Roubini said he expects a 35 percent to 40 percent chance of the U.S. entering a double dip recession, highlighting the risks faced by the world’s largest economy.

Roubini also said in a conference today in Seoul that U.S. economic growth could decelerate to as low as 1 percent by year-end. “The growth rate is so low it’s going to feel like a recession even if technically this is not a recession,” he said.

Federal Reserve policy makers last month said U.S. growth is likely to be “modest in the near term” and added that they are prepared to ease monetary policy further if needed. The recovery of advanced economies including the U.S. is likely to be anemic and “U-shaped,” Roubini said.

A U.S. jobless rate hovering near 10 percent is shaking consumer confidence and limiting spending, the biggest part of the economy. The American economy expanded at a 1.7 percent annual rate in the second quarter, according to the Commerce Department.

Roubini said that deflation is the biggest risk for advanced economies. Japan’s producer prices in September fell for the first time since July as the yen’s gain makes imports cheaper, according to Bank of Japan data released today.

He said Japan’s central bank isn’t reacting aggressively to economic developments. The Bank of Japan on Oct. 5 created a 5 trillion yen ($61 billion) fund to buy bonds and other assets, and pledged to keep its benchmark interest rate at “virtually zero” until the end of deflation is in sight.

In contrast with the slow pace of recovery among advanced economies, emerging economies are likely to undergo rapid and sharp rebounds, Roubini said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Jun Yang in Seoul at jyang180@bloomberg.net

Batman wrote:

Dr. Doom himself.... I like how he has changed is double dip estimate from 40% to 35-50%. Also, as this article notes he says growth will slow and it will feel like a double dip even if it is not technically....Way to hedge your bets sir.

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(Bloomberg)--New York University Professor Nouriel Roubini said he expects a 35 percent to 40 percent chance of the U.S. entering a double dip recession, highlighting the risks faced by the world’s largest economy.

Roubini also said in a conference today in Seoul that U.S. economic growth could decelerate to as low as 1 percent by year-end. “The growth rate is so low it’s going to feel like a recession even if technically this is not a recession,” he said.

Federal Reserve policy makers last month said U.S. growth is likely to be “modest in the near term” and added that they are prepared to ease monetary policy further if needed. The recovery of advanced economies including the U.S. is likely to be anemic and “U-shaped,” Roubini said.

A U.S. jobless rate hovering near 10 percent is shaking consumer confidence and limiting spending, the biggest part of the economy. The American economy expanded at a 1.7 percent annual rate in the second quarter, according to the Commerce Department.

Roubini said that deflation is the biggest risk for advanced economies. Japan’s producer prices in September fell for the first time since July as the yen’s gain makes imports cheaper, according to Bank of Japan data released today.

He said Japan’s central bank isn’t reacting aggressively to economic developments. The Bank of Japan on Oct. 5 created a 5 trillion yen ($61 billion) fund to buy bonds and other assets, and pledged to keep its benchmark interest rate at “virtually zero” until the end of deflation is in sight.

In contrast with the slow pace of recovery among advanced economies, emerging economies are likely to undergo rapid and sharp rebounds, Roubini said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Jun Yang in Seoul at jyang180@bloomberg.net

Dude dug himself into a hole and is trying to climb his way out haha