USD/JPY Daily Outlook

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 102.20; (P) 102.44; (R1) 102.71; More...

No change in USD/JPY's outlook. Choppy recovery from 100.75 is possibly a correction only. With 103.44 resistance holds, near term outlook stays mildly bearish and the fall from 105.41 is in favor to continue. Below 101.38 will turn bias to the downside for 100.75 and 100.61 key support. Decisive break there will confirm medium term topping at 105.41 on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD and bring deeper decline towards 96.56 support. However, decisive break of 103.44 will indicate that USD/JPY has successfully defended 100.61 key support already. Stronger rally should then be seen back to retest 105.41.

In the bigger picture, medium term up trend from 75.56 is in form of a five way impulsive move with rise from 96.56 as the fifth leg. There is no confirmation of reversal yet but a medium term top should be near, if not formed yet. Sustained trading below 55 days EMA would likely bring deeper correction back to 96.56 support and below. But overall, we'll stay medium term bullish as long as 93.78 support holds and expect rise from 75.56 to extend through 50% retracement of 147.68 to 75.56 at 111.62 eventually.