USD/JPY Daily Outlook

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 104.12; (P) 104.35; (R1) 104.73; More...

The sharp decline and break of 103.85 indicates that the correction pattern from 105.41 is still in progress. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 102.85 support first. Break will target 102.49 and below. Also, we'd again like to point out the bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. Break of 102.49 would have come bearish implications and could bring deeper fall to 100.61 key near term support. On the upside, break of 105.41 is needed to confirm rally resumption. Otherwise, risk will stay mildly on the downside in near term.

In the bigger picture, medium term up trend from 75.56 is in form of a five way impulsive move with rise from 96.56 as the fifth leg. There is no confirmation of reversal yet but a medium term top should be near. Sustained trading below 55 days EMA would likely bring deeper correction back to 96.56 support and below. But overall, we'll stay medium term bullish as long as 93.78 support holds and expect rise from 75.56 to extend through 50% retracement of 147.68 to 75.56 at 111.62 eventually