Don't Go on Holidays until You're a Billionnaire

July will be a bad month for my trading. I've started the year pretty well, long on the rise, short on the falls, but since I returned from a vacation in early June, I've been struggling to make serious money out of the markets and it looks like I've lost the right timing... My wife won't like the lesson : Never go on holidays if you're on a winning streak... or alternatively and you won't like the lesson : don't go on holidays until you're a billionnaire.


I was short the stock markets this month : wrong. If you remember (if not, just scroll down) the rationale for the position was further to the debate between "austerity" and "growth", I've been thinking that the wave of austerity in Europe and Obama struggling to impose more support to US Economy is reminiscent of the mistakes done in the past before the Great Depression and I believe they can lead us back to a profound recession. I still stick to this argument but my timing for a short position was definitely wrong as this can spend months (or even years) before we know the impact of such policies. Knowing that nothing is more difficult (and more funny I've to confess) than trying to pick a reversal, the loss here was limited to 2-ATR. The Sheriff I underestimated and I forgot in my argument was the FED (how could I miss IT) : Sheriff Ben is still able to ease, he still veils, the finger on the QE trigger even if Sheriff Obama runs a bit out of ammunition (politically). Another thing I overestimated and that harmed my short is the negative impact a strong dollar during the 2Q would have on the earnings of the American companies, mininal apparently...

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