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 Weekly market Discussions

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AuthorMessage
Snapman

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Posts : 625
Join date : 2009-06-25
Age : 30
Location : New York City

PostSubject: Weekly market Discussions   Fri Jul 23, 2010 6:45 pm

July 23, 2010:

16:21:19 23/07/10] Sauros : Hey Sir
[16:21:30 23/07/10] Sauros : How are things ?
[16:22:23 23/07/10] Snapman : Not to bad
[16:22:36 23/07/10] Snapman : stress test annonucment
[16:22:39 23/07/10] Snapman : on its way
[16:22:41 23/07/10] Snapman : how are you doing?
[16:22:44 23/07/10] Sauros : yep
[16:23:05 23/07/10] Sauros : not bad, but got a bit hurt this week on trading
[16:23:26 23/07/10] Sauros : short stocks and long EURUSD didn't work that much
[16:23:36 23/07/10] Snapman : ohh
[16:23:45 23/07/10] Sauros : bad timing
[16:23:52 23/07/10] Snapman : long EUR/USD from monday
[16:23:53 23/07/10] Snapman : ?
[16:24:09 23/07/10] Snapman : well long eur/usd actually might be a godo call if oy hold on to it
[16:24:22 23/07/10] Sauros : not sure, we have to look at the results
[16:24:41 23/07/10] Sauros : this said i'm ok, long eurusd makes sense
[16:24:50 23/07/10] Sauros : now 1.30 has to be cleared
[16:25:23 23/07/10] Snapman : yea EUR tanked pre announcment big time
[16:25:35 23/07/10] Snapman : its seems to be going back to 1.30 though
[16:25:37 23/07/10] Sauros : how is ur life ?
[16:25:48 23/07/10] Snapman : godo question
[16:25:49 23/07/10] Snapman : lol
[16:25:53 23/07/10] Snapman : hey tom how you doing
[16:26:04 23/07/10] Snapman : my life is busy as usual, but i need to get even busier
[16:26:10 23/07/10] Sauros : yep eur slumped because the stress tests are told to be on trading books only, we'll see that later in this chat
[16:26:11 23/07/10] Snapman : we will be up and running hte incubator full time soon
[16:26:15 23/07/10] Snapman : hey dan
[16:26:17 23/07/10] Snapman : how oyu doin
[16:26:23 23/07/10] Sauros : Welcome guys
[16:26:33 23/07/10] Snapman : I guess we can wait for myles
[16:26:36 23/07/10] Snapman : oh excuse me
[16:26:41 23/07/10] Mithrandir : hello
[16:26:42 23/07/10] Snapman : i mean hello green lantern and hello mithrandir
[16:26:43 23/07/10] Snapman : lol
[16:26:53 23/07/10] Sauros :
[16:27:02 23/07/10] Mithrandir : great to be here, thank you
[16:27:15 23/07/10] Sauros : good to see you
[16:27:16 23/07/10] green lantern : hello everyone
[16:27:26 23/07/10] Snapman : get a lot of work done green lantern?
[16:27:50 23/07/10] green lantern : yeah i got a good start on things
[16:27:59 23/07/10] Snapman : cool
[16:28:33 23/07/10] Sauros : how is running AC now ?
[16:28:59 23/07/10] Snapman : been a great learning expereince you can ask green latern and mith
[16:29:04 23/07/10] Snapman : they been doing some good work for us
[16:29:11 23/07/10] Sauros : you guys look quite organised
[16:29:18 23/07/10] Snapman : getting there slowly
[16:29:26 23/07/10] Snapman : gonna hammar out the final operating agreemnet soon
[16:29:29 23/07/10] Snapman : which is key for that orgnaization
[16:29:38 23/07/10] Snapman : hey gogol
[16:29:40 23/07/10] Sauros : great, I've seen lately your contributions on the forums
[16:29:45 23/07/10] Gogol : I am hear
[16:29:50 23/07/10] Snapman : nice name
[16:29:55 23/07/10] Snapman : what happend to boris the blade?
[16:29:56 23/07/10] Snapman : LOL
[16:29:59 23/07/10] Gogol : serious issues
[16:29:59 23/07/10] Mithrandir : with patience and diligence ACis going to be great
[16:30:02 23/07/10] Gogol : hahah
[16:30:07 23/07/10] Snapman : agreed
[16:30:20 23/07/10] Snapman : hey its 11:30 or 4:30 GMT time
[16:30:23 23/07/10] Mithrandir : yo boris the blade was way better
[16:30:24 23/07/10] Snapman : stress test should be out right?
[16:30:27 23/07/10] Sauros : it takes a good way
[16:30:39 23/07/10] Gogol : not till 12
[16:30:50 23/07/10] Snapman : oh my bad im gettin gall my time zones mixed up
[16:30:53 23/07/10] Gogol : yeah boris the blade was to cool for me
[16:30:59 23/07/10] Snapman : either the EUR droped hardcore in early morning trading when EUR markets opend
[16:31:05 23/07/10] Sauros : stress test are at 6pm Brussels time, after the European market close
[16:31:23 23/07/10] Snapman : i guess you europeans aren't to bullish on the EUR results
[16:31:30 23/07/10] Sauros : Ok shall we "start" ?
[16:31:35 23/07/10] Snapman : whats the buzz on your side of the world?
[16:31:37 23/07/10] Snapman : sure
[16:31:39 23/07/10] Snapman : go ahead
[16:31:44 23/07/10] Mithrandir : nice update on china's energy g.lantern
[16:31:56 23/07/10] Sauros : First, thanks to all for attending this very first chat discussion!
[16:32:00 23/07/10] green lantern : thanks
[16:32:08 23/07/10] Snapman : thanks for inviting us
[16:32:16 23/07/10] Mithrandir : thank you for having us
[16:32:30 23/07/10] Gogol : thanks
[16:32:42 23/07/10] Sauros : The idea is to set up a weekly chat where we could share openly our views on the markets
[16:32:51 23/07/10] Sauros : on the economic environment
[16:32:58 23/07/10] Sauros : and more generally on trading
[16:33:15 23/07/10] Sauros : and this indepedently of the experience or skills
[16:33:41 23/07/10] Sauros : The best is to do that the "cool way"
[16:33:48 23/07/10] Sauros : no pressure guys
[16:33:49 23/07/10] Mithrandir : much thanks there
[16:34:01 23/07/10] Sauros : no question is silly
[16:34:13 23/07/10] Sauros : and do not intervene in the discussion
[16:34:31 23/07/10] Sauros : or tell us if the level of the discussion gets a bit too technical
[16:34:47 23/07/10] Snapman : do not hesitate to intervene?
[16:34:48 23/07/10] Sauros : it stays between us and it's cool
[16:34:49 23/07/10] Mithrandir : understood
[16:34:59 23/07/10] Gogol : cool
[16:35:01 23/07/10] Sauros : to "chat" I mean
[16:35:23 23/07/10] Sauros : I think first, as we don't know each other, we should briefly introduce ourselves, a bit like at the AA
[16:35:25 23/07/10] green lantern : great
[16:35:37 23/07/10] Snapman : ok
[16:35:45 23/07/10] Gogol : ok
[16:35:55 23/07/10] Sauros : Hi I'm "Sauros", and i've been clean for 14 minutes
[16:36:05 23/07/10] Gogol : hahaha
[16:36:07 23/07/10] Snapman : "hi sauros"
[16:36:15 23/07/10] Snapman : lol
[16:36:23 23/07/10] Gogol : hi sauros
[16:36:50 23/07/10] Sauros : actually in addition to my day job with a French IB, I'm "day trading"
[16:37:09 23/07/10] Mithrandir : hello sauros, snapman, gogol, and green lantern
[16:37:14 23/07/10] Sauros : meaning I've been speculating allday for a couple of years
[16:38:19 23/07/10] Sauros : hey guys you to introduce yourselves
[16:38:47 23/07/10] Mithrandir : I just graduated as a double major in history and philo at four years, which makes me like to believe that i have been thinking for 4 years
[16:39:11 23/07/10] Mithrandir : wops, at fordham university*
[16:39:11 23/07/10] Sauros : a future Soros
[16:39:30 23/07/10] Snapman : lol
[16:39:38 23/07/10] Gogol : lol
[16:39:51 23/07/10] Mithrandir : clearly not enough thinking is still going on
[16:39:59 23/07/10] Sauros : history and philo, that sounds interesting
[16:40:12 23/07/10] Snapman : best major to be a good fund manager lol
[16:40:24 23/07/10] Snapman : majors*
[16:41:05 23/07/10] Sauros : probably better than mathematics profile...
[16:41:25 23/07/10] Sauros : Snapman, Gogol a bit more about you ?
[16:41:29 23/07/10] Snapman : ok well ill go then i guess
[16:41:31 23/07/10] Gogol : he is very inspired by Sarte and Mills on his trades
[16:41:39 23/07/10] Snapman : lol
[16:41:40 23/07/10] Mithrandir : so i have heard, but im not quite sure yet what my future has in store
[16:41:57 23/07/10] Snapman : lots of good stuff mith
[16:42:04 23/07/10] Snapman : anyway,
[16:42:22 23/07/10] Snapman : i studied economics my first affair with the seductive financial markets occured about 4 years ago
[16:42:28 23/07/10] Snapman : been hooked ever since
[16:42:37 23/07/10] Snapman : started on equity analysis and learned i was terrible at that
[16:42:46 23/07/10] Snapman : then found macro related stuff like currencies
[16:42:54 23/07/10] Snapman : and been trading forex for more than a year or so
[16:43:11 23/07/10] Snapman : and trying to grow my current endeavuor Analyze Capital
[16:43:32 23/07/10] Sauros : Hi Snapman
[16:43:35 23/07/10] Snapman : g.lantern or gogol?
[16:44:15 23/07/10] green lantern : I'm "green lantern." I joined AC at the beginging of the summer to help them research legal/compliance issues.
[16:44:16 23/07/10] Gogol : I double majored in History and Journalism
[16:44:45 23/07/10] green lantern : I majored in finance.
[16:45:15 23/07/10] Sauros : Cool, are you all AC guys ?
[16:45:29 23/07/10] green lantern : And just graduated this past May.
[16:45:34 23/07/10] Gogol : trying to be
[16:45:38 23/07/10] Gogol : lol
[16:45:55 23/07/10] Snapman : they have affliation in one way or another
[16:46:34 23/07/10] Sauros : cool, it looks AC is now fully launched!
[16:46:35 23/07/10] Mithrandir : im part of the team for the summer and then perhaps again in the near future, inbetween ill be abroad finding answers
[16:46:54 23/07/10] Snapman : you will be an expert in south east asian affairs
[16:47:06 23/07/10] Snapman :
[16:47:08 23/07/10] Mithrandir : hopefully
[16:47:22 23/07/10] Sauros : hot market !
[16:47:34 23/07/10] Snapman : hot in many ways indeed
[16:47:40 23/07/10] Snapman : hehe
[16:47:43 23/07/10] Sauros : South East Asia I meant
[16:47:45 23/07/10] Mithrandir : excellent
[16:47:47 23/07/10] Sauros : lol
[16:48:33 23/07/10] Sauros : maybe we could start a general discussion on the economic environment now ?
[16:48:46 23/07/10] Snapman : if you want?
[16:48:59 23/07/10] Snapman : i mean this week we been following hte EUR closely in our morning discussinos
[16:49:09 23/07/10] Snapman : or debt offerings in the euro zone as well
[16:49:11 23/07/10] Snapman : the piigs
[16:49:21 23/07/10] Snapman : a bit on gold and oil as well
[16:49:29 23/07/10] Sauros : I suggest : the "hot" topic of the day, the european stress test ?
[16:49:32 23/07/10] Snapman : we can talk anything really i guess
[16:49:36 23/07/10] Sauros : to start with
[16:49:40 23/07/10] Snapman : sure
[16:49:55 23/07/10] Snapman : i think most people here are short the EUR if i am correct?
[16:50:00 23/07/10] Snapman : unless gogol changed his mind?
[16:50:37 23/07/10] Sauros : actually the EUR took a slump early in the afternoon
[16:50:45 23/07/10] Gogol : man i am so lost right now
[16:50:47 23/07/10] Gogol : hahaha
[16:50:54 23/07/10] Sauros : that's because of the stress tests
[16:51:29 23/07/10] Snapman : what you lost on?
[16:51:33 23/07/10] Sauros : the thing is it is said that the stress tests only look at the losses on trading books
[16:51:58 23/07/10] Gogol : the candle thing lol
[16:52:15 23/07/10] Sauros : what is to know with banks is they have 2 types of books : "banking book" and "trading book"
[16:52:43 23/07/10] Snapman : so in reality this stress test is over hyped in a sense?
[16:52:50 23/07/10] Snapman : is it all for show?
[16:52:55 23/07/10] Sauros : basically in the "trading book", the banks holds its instruments for maximum 6 months
[16:53:30 23/07/10] Sauros : while in the Banking Books, the bank is supposed to hold the asset until its maturity
[16:54:05 23/07/10] Sauros : I'd say the huge share of a bank exposure is its "banking books" : that's its balance-sheet
[16:54:39 23/07/10] Snapman : are their overlapping exposures between teh banking books and trading books?
[16:54:43 23/07/10] Sauros : so the rumour saying that the tests apply only to the trading books will definitely disapoint the markets
[16:54:53 23/07/10] Snapman : interesting
[16:55:11 23/07/10] Sauros : no overlap, basically you mean to hold the asset or to sell it ("trade")
[16:55:34 23/07/10] Sauros : so an asset either goes to banking or trading
[16:55:47 23/07/10] Snapman : i see
[16:56:00 23/07/10] Sauros : More generally with the stress
[16:56:05 23/07/10] green lantern : according to bloomberg "Lenders hold about 90 percent of their Greek government bonds in their banking book and 10 percent in their trading book"
[16:56:17 23/07/10] Sauros : My opinion is this is if too many banks pass, the market could consider the tests to be not stressed enough and it could ultimately be bearish
[16:56:29 23/07/10] Sauros : definitely the exposures lie in the Banking
[16:56:48 23/07/10] Sauros : so the tests could be considered as irrelevant
[16:56:55 23/07/10] Snapman : would everyone agree that if too many pass this means a bearish EUR move?
[16:57:11 23/07/10] Sauros : Agreed
[16:57:13 23/07/10] Snapman : i mena fundamentally i dont' see how the EUR should be anyhting but bearish
[16:57:33 23/07/10] Sauros : mmmh
[16:58:08 23/07/10] Sauros : The other thing on the EUR is the Central banks
[16:58:22 23/07/10] Gogol : yeah
[16:58:52 23/07/10] Sauros : the 1st page of FT (in London) says "Trichet calls for worldwide tightening"
[16:59:29 23/07/10] Sauros : while the comment of Bernanke last wednesday was to some extent a bit mitigated
[16:59:30 23/07/10] Snapman : are markets taking that an implication for rasining rates in 2010?
[16:59:46 23/07/10] Snapman : for trichets comments
[17:00:05 23/07/10] Sauros : that's a bit the trend in Europe : "austerity"
[17:00:24 23/07/10] Sauros : while in the US, more QE is not to be excluded
[17:00:30 23/07/10] Snapman : so it was more an implication of exiting quantitative easing policies?
[17:00:42 23/07/10] Snapman : yea
[17:00:46 23/07/10] Mithrandir : im strongly in the EURO bearish camp
[17:01:12 23/07/10] Snapman : esp if trichet says we won't support market and liqudity with QE that points to mroe bearishness imho
[17:01:34 23/07/10] Sauros : arguably
[17:01:39 23/07/10] Snapman : so if tahts the case we will see a big divergence between teh GBP and EUR?
[17:01:58 23/07/10] Snapman : i find it hard for them to diverge too much
[17:02:32 23/07/10] Snapman : are you guys GBP bulls or bears?
[17:03:05 23/07/10] Sauros : to some extent, UK and Europe are on the same side
[17:03:18 23/07/10] Sauros : tightening
[17:03:46 23/07/10] Snapman : true but markets are seeing that as more favorable for the GBP
[17:03:52 23/07/10] Snapman : whearas that seems to be more negative for the EUR
[17:03:53 23/07/10] Sauros : Hypo Real Estate Fails as 13 German Banks Pass EU Stress
[17:04:05 23/07/10] Mithrandir : GBP bear in serious hibernation
[17:04:26 23/07/10] Sauros : good GDP this morning for the UK
[17:04:33 23/07/10] Snapman : yea
[17:04:51 23/07/10] Snapman : i mean do you think the GBP is strong enough to help float the EUR to higher highs beyond 1.30?
[17:04:54 23/07/10] Sauros : a spanish bank fails
[17:05:08 23/07/10] Sauros : french banks pass
[17:06:05 23/07/10] Sauros : sorry, back to our discussion
[17:06:20 23/07/10] green lantern : If a bank fails when they are only acounting for the trading books, then they must really be in trouble when you take into account the banking books....no?
[17:06:46 23/07/10] Snapman : yea i think thats the rational for sauros when he says if too many pass people will see the EUR as bearish
[17:06:52 23/07/10] Snapman : it was TOO easy
[17:07:01 23/07/10] green lantern : agreed
[17:07:03 23/07/10] Snapman : and things maybe more worse off than they apppar
[17:07:45 23/07/10] Sauros : correct that was my point
[17:08:08 23/07/10] Sauros : at that stage is it making sense for all of you ?
[17:08:38 23/07/10] Snapman : i mean is that the general sentiment seen around europe?
[17:09:02 23/07/10] Snapman : i mean headlines that i've been seeing seem to want to paint a bullish picture for the stress test
[17:09:49 23/07/10] Sauros : yes but i guess the market could consider the tests not stressed enough and not relevant with the trading book thing
[17:10:40 23/07/10] Snapman : oh btw mith good trading on IBM you almost back to breaking even
[17:10:47 23/07/10] Sauros : Maybe we could switch to another market now, we can discuss the EUR and the tests later next week on the forums
[17:11:04 23/07/10] Mithrandir : you refering to me le
[17:11:11 23/07/10] Sauros : S&P 500 ?
[17:11:19 23/07/10] Snapman : yea
[17:11:44 23/07/10] Snapman : just in our trading game mith recouped a lot of losses from some trades he was down on
[17:11:46 23/07/10] Sauros : it's at 1091 as i write
[17:11:53 23/07/10] Sauros : 1100 cleared ?
[17:11:54 23/07/10] Gogol : So is it generally agreed that the test was too easy?
[17:12:00 23/07/10] Snapman : hmmm hard call
[17:12:16 23/07/10] Snapman : I dunno if markets will see it that way…
[17:12:24 23/07/10] Snapman : ima just stick to the technicals on the EUR call
[17:12:25 23/07/10] Snapman : :p
[17:12:38 23/07/10] Snapman : i feel that reading the sentiment on this is too convoluted at this point
[17:12:52 23/07/10] Snapman : i will point out htat we have a serious of fails to break through 1.30
[17:12:56 23/07/10] Snapman : so that is bearish
[17:13:19 23/07/10] Gogol : right
[17:13:28 23/07/10] Sauros : but this morning was back close to 1.30
[17:13:37 23/07/10] Snapman : then failed
[17:13:59 23/07/10] Sauros : i mean if 1.30 breaks again, it might be for "good"
[17:14:23 23/07/10] Snapman : well if it breaks it for good then i dont' see why we cant' see 1.35
[17:14:29 23/07/10] Sauros : we have to wait and see the action there, next week after the news about the stress tests are digested a bit
[17:14:33 23/07/10] Snapman : and for the SPX
[17:14:45 23/07/10] Snapman : if it fails at 11000 again thats kinda dboule top scenario
[17:14:53 23/07/10] Snapman : make me more bearihs esp if it tops and falls belwo the 50 SMA again
[17:15:00 23/07/10] Snapman : if we see a move to 200 SMA resistence
[17:15:09 23/07/10] Snapman : well we might see higher highs to 1200
[17:15:20 23/07/10] Sauros : 200 SMA is a key one
[17:15:29 23/07/10] Sauros : agreed with your view on SPX
[17:15:53 23/07/10] Sauros : 7 banks out of 91 fail
[17:16:08 23/07/10] Snapman : euro is taking on shorter term charts
[17:16:11 23/07/10] Snapman : as we speak
[17:16:15 23/07/10] Snapman : might e making a higher low
[17:16:26 23/07/10] Snapman : i might have to concede this one to you guys who were bears hehe
[17:16:32 23/07/10] Sauros : still noisy
[17:16:36 23/07/10] Snapman : yep
[17:16:38 23/07/10] Snapman : in a few hours
[17:16:41 23/07/10] Snapman : the trend will be more clear
[17:17:19 23/07/10] Sauros : Oil and Gold ?
[17:17:30 23/07/10] Snapman : anyway what do you guys think about equities specifcially the SPX?
[17:17:44 23/07/10] Snapman : mith, g.lantern, gog?
[17:18:52 23/07/10] Mithrandir : well my view is that we are going to see a double dip recession, so i think the US markets are in for another serious plunge
[17:19:01 23/07/10] green lantern : Like you said, I think 1100 is a big resistance point. If it fails to break it, then it would be hard for me to be bullish.
[17:19:18 23/07/10] Snapman : yea 900's all the way!
[17:19:20 23/07/10] Snapman : LOL
[17:19:21 23/07/10] Snapman : well i hope
[17:19:34 23/07/10] Snapman : that means probably end year will be around 1100 or 1200 if we see 900
[17:19:43 23/07/10] Snapman : i dunno what to expect if we see a stright move to 1200
[17:19:47 23/07/10] Snapman : that would be interesting
[17:19:51 23/07/10] Snapman : what do you guys think?
[17:20:02 23/07/10] Snapman : what coudl even cause that straight bullish move?
[17:20:51 23/07/10] green lantern : thats a great question, there are few things that I acn point to that could support a straight bullish move.
[17:20:53 23/07/10] Sauros : we may be at a turning point on many markets
[17:21:55 23/07/10] Sauros : we could see the continuation of the rally started in MArch 2009
[17:21:57 23/07/10] Snapman : what woudl you say g.Lanten?
[17:22:24 23/07/10] Sauros : or at the very opposite, see the famous "double dip"
[17:22:36 23/07/10] green lantern : sauros is right, hopefully in the next couple of weeks we will have a better indication of where the SPX is going
[17:22:45 23/07/10] Gogol : I kinda feelin a double dip
[17:22:47 23/07/10] Snapman : id say end of next week for sure
[17:22:55 23/07/10] Snapman : i mean few solid candles above the 50 SMA
[17:23:01 23/07/10] Snapman : might make me a bull in stead
[17:23:04 23/07/10] Sauros : soon enough
[17:23:05 23/07/10] Gogol : i feel like there is so little confidence coming out of big sources
[17:23:21 23/07/10] Snapman : you mean like big stock companies?
[17:23:37 23/07/10] Gogol : the banks and companies
[17:23:40 23/07/10] Gogol : and fed
[17:23:52 23/07/10] Snapman : i think everyone seems to be tip toeing around things because they are so politicaly tied these days
[17:23:58 23/07/10] Sauros : the thing is I've realy mixed feelings
[17:24:11 23/07/10] Gogol : everyone is pretty indecisive
[17:24:13 23/07/10] Sauros : back to a few weeks ago, I was quite bearish
[17:24:15 23/07/10] Snapman : i mena woudl you agree all these banks and fed are now deeper in politics than before?
[17:24:38 23/07/10] Sauros : because I think that tightening and austerity is a repeat of the mistakes of the 1930s
[17:24:54 23/07/10] Snapman : true
[17:25:05 23/07/10] Snapman : how should they appraoch solving the sovernign problems then?
[17:25:07 23/07/10] Gogol : of course they are everyone is in bed with eachother now
[17:25:11 23/07/10] Sauros : the thing is to me, Obama has it right opn the stimulus etc but he runs out of fuel politically
[17:25:14 23/07/10] Snapman : too bad batman isnt' here is a is a big fan of austerity
[17:25:27 23/07/10] Snapman : really?
[17:25:28 23/07/10] Sauros : now remains the FED
[17:25:34 23/07/10] Snapman : he passed so many things from health care to finanicla reform
[17:25:44 23/07/10] Snapman : people think he can tackle almost anything
[17:26:09 23/07/10] Sauros : the FED can still intervene
[17:26:16 23/07/10] Mithrandir : im not sure, in britains case they seriously do neet to cut spending, however, i am not so sure how wise they are to attempt such austerity measures on the scale osborne is advocating for
[17:26:27 23/07/10] Gogol : we will see come elections
[17:26:30 23/07/10] Sauros : agreed for the UK
[17:26:45 23/07/10] Sauros : while they need a plan B ...
[17:26:48 23/07/10] Mithrandir : good point gogol
[17:27:53 23/07/10] Mithrandir : yes, a plan B would be very good, however, 2 things: one, they wont disclose it for fear of looking weak, and two, they might not have one because they are so bullheaded with their policies
[17:28:22 23/07/10] Snapman : yea that sounds very characteric of UK politics
[17:28:35 23/07/10] Sauros : very true
[17:29:11 23/07/10] Sauros : by the way, I'd recommend an excellent reading on the Great Depression
[17:29:21 23/07/10] Gogol : maybe a stupid Q but Sauros where r u in Europe?
[17:29:23 23/07/10] Sauros : "The Lords of Finance"
[17:29:23 23/07/10] Mithrandir : but, all in all, if anything the austerity plan will create more save-oriented policies which the country needs right now, even if it is a general failure
[17:29:30 23/07/10] Snapman : great there is a borders closing down down the street form em maybe they have it on discount
[17:29:38 23/07/10] Sauros : for you Historian guys
[17:29:44 23/07/10] Mithrandir : haha!
[17:29:49 23/07/10] Snapman : ohh i saw that! I shoulda grabbed that!
[17:30:11 23/07/10] Gogol : hahaha
[17:30:23 23/07/10] Sauros : it shows how from 1914 to 1935 the world slipped into the Great Depression
[17:30:42 23/07/10] Snapman : sounds good
[17:30:46 23/07/10] Sauros : I think it is key regards to what is happening now
[17:30:46 23/07/10] green lantern : sauros, do you agree with krugman that if the US does not spend more stimulus, it will fall into a double dip recession?
[17:30:47 23/07/10] Snapman : incase you missed: [17:29:21] Gogol : maybe a stupid Q but Sauros where r u in Europe?
[17:30:51 23/07/10] Mithrandir : interesting ill look into it
[17:31:13 23/07/10] Sauros : I'd agree with Krugman
[17:31:16 23/07/10] Snapman : LOL
[17:31:16 23/07/10] Snapman : oh btw tom sauros is your comptriot
[17:31:29 23/07/10] Gogol : France
[17:31:35 23/07/10] Mithrandir :
[17:31:36 23/07/10] Snapman : you guys can complian together about other countries and how great france is ;-)
[17:31:45 23/07/10] Gogol : ok
[17:31:59 23/07/10] Mithrandir : yes great, what a pastime!
[17:32:16 23/07/10] Sauros : who's the Frenchie ?
[17:32:22 23/07/10] Snapman : mith
[17:32:26 23/07/10] Snapman : hes got some frenchy blood in him
[17:32:33 23/07/10] Snapman : half french blood half grey poupon
[17:32:34 23/07/10] Snapman : LOL
[17:32:46 23/07/10] Sauros : btw in that book, we can see how France avoided the 1929 crisis
[17:32:56 23/07/10] Mithrandir : yesir, one question, do you have a negative or positive perception of that boot on europe called italy?
[17:33:15 23/07/10] Sauros : actually they did like the chinese, a peg to the gold (=dollar) at a low value
[17:33:21 23/07/10] Snapman : they are one of hte i's in pigs aren't they?
[17:33:54 23/07/10] Sauros : in Europe, I'm hearing from insiders very bad things about Spain
[17:34:06 23/07/10] Sauros : could have another Lehman
[17:34:08 23/07/10] Mithrandir : seems like this is the beginning of a long friendship!
[17:34:14 23/07/10] Mithrandir : haha
[17:34:26 23/07/10] Mithrandir : yeah, very bad news in spain
[17:34:33 23/07/10] Snapman : indeed
[17:34:54 23/07/10] Sauros : and the subprime crisis could look like a day at disneyland compared to what could happen there
[17:34:58 23/07/10] Gogol : I just read somewhere that Portugal has pretty serious gold reserves
[17:35:13 23/07/10] Gogol : does anyone know about this?
[17:36:09 23/07/10] Mithrandir : im a huge european football fan, and just as an example, the TV rights which has a huge deal deal with all the clubs, some exceeding 1.5 billion of 5 years, just filed bankruptcy, so now many clubs are facing chapter 11 themselves, its really sad
[17:36:17 23/07/10] Snapman : 382 tons
[17:36:19 23/07/10] Mithrandir : over 5 years*
[17:36:31 23/07/10] Sauros : Guys, it's 12.35, it's a pleasure to chat here but I think we should stick to 1-hour chat, just question of discipline
[17:36:33 23/07/10] Snapman : tahts 83% of national forex reserves
[17:36:53 23/07/10] Snapman : indeed
[17:36:57 23/07/10] Snapman : good point saruos
[17:37:03 23/07/10] Gogol : cool
[17:37:10 23/07/10] Snapman : if you guys want to continue discussion or have questions ill leave the recap wave open
[17:37:14 23/07/10] Mithrandir : ok sounds good, thank you for having us, it was a real informative pleasure
[17:37:21 23/07/10] Snapman : or if you want to discuss your projects with me ill be on the wave now
[17:37:28 23/07/10] Snapman : thanks for talking wiht us Sauros
[17:37:34 23/07/10] Sauros : we could keep on these discussions on the forums
[17:37:35 23/07/10] Snapman : we apprecaite your insights as always
[17:37:39 23/07/10] Gogol : Thanks Sauros
[17:37:42 23/07/10] Snapman : sure
[17:37:47 23/07/10] green lantern : Thanks for having us.
[17:37:50 23/07/10] Gogol : it was a pleasure
[17:37:54 23/07/10] Sauros : thanks to you guys! I think that's a good experience
[17:37:57 23/07/10] Snapman : sure thing i can post this on the forum
[17:38:03 23/07/10] Mithrandir : thank you and good day and evening
[17:38:06 23/07/10] Snapman : yep take care
[17:38:08 23/07/10] Snapman : good luck trading
[17:38:12 23/07/10] Snapman : may the trades be with oyu
[17:38:19 23/07/10] Sauros : May the
[17:38:25 23/07/10] Sauros : Lord of Trading be with you
[17:38:42 23/07/10] Sauros : Have a good weekend guys, we talk later
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Snapman

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Posts : 625
Join date : 2009-06-25
Age : 30
Location : New York City

PostSubject: Re: Weekly market Discussions   Fri Jul 30, 2010 4:47 pm

16:28:54 30/07/10] Sauros : Hey guys
[16:29:37 30/07/10] Batman : Hey
[16:29:56 30/07/10] Batman : Allis well in the world of global economic financial utopia
[16:30:10 30/07/10] Sauros : how are things ? good to "see" you back
[16:30:10 30/07/10] Batman :
[16:30:38 30/07/10] Batman : I contracted a virus I suspect in Tokyo but I am feeling much better now thank you
[16:30:57 30/07/10] Batman : and u?
[16:30:58 30/07/10] Sauros : hope you get better soon
[16:31:45 30/07/10] Sauros : good, i'm trying to focus harder on the trading
[16:32:04 30/07/10] Batman : That EUR/USD is a femle dog lately
[16:32:26 30/07/10] Sauros : meaning ? sorry
[16:32:55 30/07/10] Batman : female dog = b*tch
[16:33:05 30/07/10] Sauros : ah ok
[16:33:19 30/07/10] Batman : wanted to keep it collegial
[16:33:22 30/07/10] Gogol : Hey
[16:33:44 30/07/10] Gogol : hahaha
[16:33:45 30/07/10] Sauros : actaully i've been bull for a couple of weeks and short stock indices
[16:33:58 30/07/10] Sauros : it started to pay a bit this week
[16:34:17 30/07/10] Sauros : hey gogol, I'm taking my American English lesson here
[16:34:20 30/07/10] Gogol : sure you don't have swine flu
[16:34:28 30/07/10] Batman : I'm sure
[16:34:33 30/07/10] Batman : thanks for the concern
[16:34:43 30/07/10] Gogol : Just looking out
[16:34:50 30/07/10] Sauros : first time in Japan ?
[16:35:00 30/07/10] Batman : Yeah
[16:35:04 30/07/10] Batman : I loved it
[16:35:15 30/07/10] Sauros : Ive never been
[16:35:27 30/07/10] Sauros : sounds great
[16:35:46 30/07/10] Batman : Tokyo is amazing more relaxed than New York
[16:35:51 30/07/10] Gogol : Japan is amazing!
[16:36:06 30/07/10] Sauros : you went for business i understand
[16:36:25 30/07/10] Batman : I met with our 3rd partner
[16:36:32 30/07/10] Snapman : Hello
[16:36:39 30/07/10] Batman : Hey
[16:36:41 30/07/10] Sauros : hey
[16:36:42 30/07/10] Snapman : I just realized bolt bus has internet lol
[16:36:51 30/07/10] Batman : lucky
[16:36:52 30/07/10] Sauros :
[16:36:53 30/07/10] Snapman : Kinda spotty but might work out
[16:37:02 30/07/10] Sauros : cool
[16:37:11 30/07/10] Sauros : shall we start ?
[16:37:20 30/07/10] Batman : Greenltarn will not make it unfortunately
[16:37:29 30/07/10] Snapman : er
[16:37:29 30/07/10] Snapman : same with tom
[16:37:31 30/07/10] Snapman : mith
[16:37:38 30/07/10] Snapman : he is doing something for singapore
[16:38:01 30/07/10] Snapman : well 4's a party
[16:38:04 30/07/10] Sauros : ok so what do you want to start with ?
[16:38:04 30/07/10] Snapman : haha
[16:38:22 30/07/10] Batman : IMF report on US
[16:38:25 30/07/10] Snapman : Any thing anyone had on their mind lately?
[16:38:31 30/07/10] Snapman : what about it
[16:38:36 30/07/10] Snapman : I dind't get a chance to read it
[16:38:52 30/07/10] Snapman : only glanced through it
[16:39:12 30/07/10] Sauros : maybe batman you could summarize
[16:39:25 30/07/10] Batman : They say US banking system needs about 80 B more in caitl, also projected budget deficit for 2010 and 2011 not looking good
[16:39:38 30/07/10] Batman : public debt levels increasing very fast as well
[16:39:52 30/07/10] Batman : capital*
[16:40:21 30/07/10] Batman : also, inflation is not expected to pick up anytime soon or employment for that matter remaining over 9%
[16:40:21 30/07/10] Snapman : i met with an the advisor to the exec director on the IMF board
[16:40:26 30/07/10] Snapman : he had some interesting thoughts on that
[16:40:37 30/07/10] Batman : inflation for 2010-2011 = 1.4% avg
[16:40:58 30/07/10] Batman : Thats the gyst
[16:40:59 30/07/10] Snapman : Do you think that the fiscal situation is a serious problem any time soon?
[16:41:07 30/07/10] Sauros : that shows the risk is more on deflation than inflation
[16:41:19 30/07/10] Snapman : yea
[16:41:26 30/07/10] Snapman : esp with most CB's targeting 3% inflation these days
[16:41:37 30/07/10] Sauros : that would support more easing rather than austerity in the us
[16:41:40 30/07/10] Snapman : or at least being more flexible with it
[16:41:49 30/07/10] Batman : More quantitative easing is in order as Lockhart suggests
[16:42:15 30/07/10] Sauros : yea anyway i think it's bull for the eurusd generally
[16:42:27 30/07/10] Snapman : indeed, but do you see us getting that supposed 80bill of capital through fiscal or monetary means?
[16:42:53 30/07/10] Snapman : whats your reasoning on that bull EUR/USD ?
[16:43:02 30/07/10] Batman : well there was a report in FT Asia this morning that US banks raised 7 B in capital this week
[16:43:06 30/07/10] Batman : private sector
[16:43:17 30/07/10] Sauros : i've been bull on the EURUSD for a couple of week
[16:43:38 30/07/10] Sauros : started with a kind of "pattern recognition"
[16:43:53 30/07/10] Snapman : yea ive been bull too
[16:43:56 30/07/10] Sauros : remember what happened on Dec 09 snapman ?
[16:44:14 30/07/10] Batman : yes
[16:44:38 30/07/10] Sauros : when we were all used to see the eurusd correlated to the global economy
[16:44:51 30/07/10] Sauros : suddenly the NFP printed good results
[16:45:01 30/07/10] Snapman : yep
[16:45:09 30/07/10] Sauros : but the EURUSD instead of jumping slumped
[16:45:23 30/07/10] Batman : an interesting thing the IMF report pointed out is that since we have hd a stronger USD exports have suffered mightly
[16:45:30 30/07/10] Batman : in comparison to 08 09
[16:46:03 30/07/10] Batman : These levels are not sustainable for an export driven recovery
[16:46:16 30/07/10] Sauros : the strong USD hurting the US has been my point since the beginning of this year
[16:46:38 30/07/10] Sauros : that justified my long DAX
[16:47:00 30/07/10] Batman : I believed you even suggested a devaluation
[16:47:04 30/07/10] Snapman : godo point
[16:47:13 30/07/10] Snapman : but are we at the turnign oint then?
[16:47:18 30/07/10] Sauros : to be back to the "pattern", we saw the opposite a few weeks ago
[16:47:19 30/07/10] Snapman : is your trade finally unwinding sauros?
[16:47:42 30/07/10] Sauros : this week it started feeling good
[16:47:53 30/07/10] Snapman : when did you stop being short EUR?
[16:49:12 30/07/10] Gogol : Last time we talked you were short right?
[16:49:19 30/07/10] Sauros : July 1st, i started to be bull EURUSD
[16:49:24 30/07/10] Sauros : I started to be bull eurusd on July 1st
[16:49:35 30/07/10] Snapman : about batmans point* USD is def too strong for export orietned recovery, but arguable the EUR is… and will probably be necessary to get theri GDP numbrs up from this curreny sovergin crises
[16:50:16 30/07/10] Snapman : The US can recover in other ways arguably*
[16:50:32 30/07/10] Sauros : the weak EUR helped Germany
[16:50:43 30/07/10] Batman : I'm referencing the Obamanomic plan
[16:51:05 30/07/10] Gogol : lol
[16:51:21 30/07/10] Batman :
[16:51:45 30/07/10] Snapman : at 1.30 levels defintiely will continue to help germany
[16:52:06 30/07/10] Snapman : pound is continugin to rally though
[16:52:13 30/07/10] Sauros : to end with my "pattern", the bad ISM and at the same time the jump of the EURUSD that day seemed to indicate that the focus of the market was now on weak US
[16:52:16 30/07/10] Batman : I don't believe an export led recovery will help Europe, austerity is the key coupled with a rebalanced EURo economy
[16:52:29 30/07/10] Snapman : im just talking abou numbers
[16:52:30 30/07/10] Snapman : not fundamentals
[16:52:47 30/07/10] Snapman : im not sayings the right thing or a godo thing but its what will help boost things like GDP numbers
[16:52:47 30/07/10] Batman : I'm talking hypotheticals
[16:53:01 30/07/10] Snapman : ?
[16:53:04 30/07/10] Snapman : oh
[16:53:05 30/07/10] Sauros : Merkel is on your way batman
[16:53:14 30/07/10] Snapman : yea
[16:53:16 30/07/10] Snapman : she is
[16:53:21 30/07/10] Snapman : lol
[16:53:43 30/07/10] Sauros : the thing is the recovery is not firm enough and most importantly, there's no inflation to fight
[16:53:59 30/07/10] Snapman : as of yet
[16:54:19 30/07/10] Gogol : http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-07-29/euro-to-rise-to-1-46-highest-this-year-technical-analysis.html
[16:54:28 30/07/10] Snapman : anyone think if we have more stimulus from monetary and fiscal side that there is a hyper inflation risk?
[16:54:28 30/07/10] Gogol : How do people feel about this?
[16:54:45 30/07/10] Sauros : the germans are biaised in their fear of inflation
[16:55:19 30/07/10] Snapman : lol
[16:55:21 30/07/10] Snapman : post wwII
[16:55:25 30/07/10] Snapman : very good point
[16:55:30 30/07/10] Snapman : they def will be more hawkish
[16:56:37 30/07/10] Snapman : I Love how they define medium term…. wat the heck does that mean?
[16:56:38 30/07/10] Sauros : I think in the short term 1.3120 or so will be a strong resistance
[16:56:57 30/07/10] Snapman : it definitly has been
[16:57:16 30/07/10] Sauros : the eurusd is very linked with the SPX too, and the latter has to break its 200-SMA and 50% retracement
[16:57:19 30/07/10] Snapman : hopefully it trades sideways again mkaing agood entry point for another big pip rally
[16:57:28 30/07/10] Snapman : to the upside
[16:57:31 30/07/10] Sauros : you guys use Fibonacci retracements ?
[16:57:41 30/07/10] Snapman : ive been doing it more lol
[16:57:55 30/07/10] Snapman : lots of time they coincide with short term resistence and support
[16:58:00 30/07/10] Snapman : one thing i haven't gotten into is wave analysis
[16:58:17 30/07/10] Snapman : and plus tons of forex heads use fib's
[16:58:21 30/07/10] Snapman : its self fulling at times
[16:58:34 30/07/10] Sauros : fibs are like voodoo to me but... it seems working
[16:58:50 30/07/10] Snapman : oh my friend who does fortune telling says stocks will rise to the end of august
[16:58:54 30/07/10] Sauros : Elliott Waves needs a lot of practice
[16:59:03 30/07/10] Snapman : yea it is voodoo with the underlying concept
[16:59:07 30/07/10] Sauros : SHORT
[16:59:15 30/07/10] Snapman : but i mean doens't matter as long as enough people believe in it
[16:59:27 30/07/10] Snapman : lol you never know we will see
[16:59:33 30/07/10] Gogol : Sounds like most religions
[16:59:41 30/07/10] Snapman : who is bullish on hte SPX?
[16:59:41 30/07/10] Sauros : yep
[17:00:05 30/07/10] Snapman : well diff is that enough people using and belivnig in trading makes trends and profits real lol
[17:00:17 30/07/10] Gogol : true
[17:00:28 30/07/10] Sauros : no i think the 200-SMA and the 50% retracement and the 1100-mark is too much obstacles
[17:00:30 30/07/10] Snapman : look term chart quite bearish for the SPX
[17:00:31 30/07/10] Batman : yeah SPX bull
[17:00:39 30/07/10] Snapman : on the daily chart right?
[17:00:40 30/07/10] Sauros : in the short term at least
[17:00:53 30/07/10] Gogol : I am bullish on the Euro so I guess that would make me bullish on SPX
[17:01:00 30/07/10] Sauros : yep daily
[17:01:10 30/07/10] Snapman : i leaning on the bear side in the next few weeks and maybe even further out
[17:01:25 30/07/10] Sauros : that's my point gogol, i think the correlation EURUSD and SPX could break
[17:01:28 30/07/10] Snapman : you check the correlations between the equities and eur?
[17:01:40 30/07/10] Snapman : well past few days EUR rallying wiht SPX declines
[17:01:43 30/07/10] Snapman : short term
[17:02:06 30/07/10] Sauros : yep it's been my trade and this week it started paying off
[17:02:25 30/07/10] Gogol : I see
[17:02:38 30/07/10] Snapman : hehe
[17:02:40 30/07/10] Sauros : focus on the "bad" US economy
[17:02:59 30/07/10] Snapman : even if US economy is bad… who is better?
[17:03:09 30/07/10] Batman : Japan
[17:03:11 30/07/10] Snapman : in terms of economies
[17:03:27 30/07/10] Snapman : id disagree
[17:03:43 30/07/10] Snapman : they still barely have gotten out of deflation
[17:03:55 30/07/10] Snapman : had higher unemployment longer than the US
[17:04:01 30/07/10] Batman : They have a huge currnt account surplus, not to mention low unempoyment
[17:04:07 30/07/10] Batman : no
[17:04:15 30/07/10] Sauros : the got out of deflation at the very moment of the crisis
[17:04:21 30/07/10] Batman : around 5%
[17:04:29 30/07/10] Snapman : historically
[17:05:01 30/07/10] Snapman : im talking overall economy - its why china and japan continue to be biggest buyers of US debt
[17:05:03 30/07/10] Snapman : most stble most liquid
[17:05:14 30/07/10] Snapman : even if US fails not many other options
[17:05:38 30/07/10] Sauros : US rule the world
[17:05:50 30/07/10] Batman : Maybe
[17:05:54 30/07/10] Snapman : they been improveing slightly but hasn't been long enough to say they are much better than US at htis point
[17:06:02 30/07/10] Batman : Things can change quickly
[17:06:07 30/07/10] Sauros : and China ?
[17:06:19 30/07/10] Sauros : they are the 2nd economy now
[17:06:20 30/07/10] Batman : Overheating
[17:06:29 30/07/10] Snapman : China thats gonna take light years to catc up and who knows how real their actual numbers are
[17:06:32 30/07/10] Gogol : didn't unemployment just rise to 5.3% in Japan
[17:06:45 30/07/10] Snapman : maybe
[17:06:57 30/07/10] Sauros : china are the big "winners" of the crisis
[17:07:05 30/07/10] Snapman : haven't followed up recetnly, but who knows im sure it will be revised in another quarter
[17:07:09 30/07/10] Sauros : tehir peg is doing good actually
[17:07:11 30/07/10] Batman : U think so?
[17:07:28 30/07/10] Snapman : yea indeed those exports keep on rollin
[17:07:35 30/07/10] Batman : They overstimulated their economy a bit too much
[17:07:43 30/07/10] Batman : a lot of bad bank loans
[17:07:45 30/07/10] Snapman : i wouldn't say recently they've benefitted but through 08 and 09
[17:07:57 30/07/10] Batman : true
[17:08:33 30/07/10] Sauros : the thing is overheat and hyper inflation is that a think the tools the CB have to stem it are better now
[17:08:44 30/07/10] Snapman : i think they had enough deposits to justify their loans and if they continue to tighten lending they might get away with a soft landing if this is a "bubble" that needs to pop
[17:09:49 30/07/10] Batman : Gogol what u think ?
[17:09:56 30/07/10] Snapman : Im just was more worreid aout the nubmer of cpaital that seeped into the equity markets form excess liqaudity
[17:10:03 30/07/10] Snapman : but as we've seen their stock have corrected signifciantly
[17:10:57 30/07/10] Batman : I worry they have stockpiled too many assets that cannot be put to use for years...
[17:11:06 30/07/10] Batman : physical commodities
[17:11:35 30/07/10] Sauros : but at the same time they're consumers of them
[17:11:42 30/07/10] Gogol : I don't think that the loan issue is going to be all that big of a deal
[17:11:53 30/07/10] Snapman : yea i want to do mroe research if they've been able to disperese FDI and inftracutral developments
[17:12:03 30/07/10] Gogol : they still have made pretty robust profits if I am not wrong
[17:12:11 30/07/10] Snapman : i mena a lot of the supposed banking structures should be in place to help faclicate this… but who knows how unorgnaize chinese banks are
[17:13:10 30/07/10] Gogol : plus recently China started to demand raw materials again
[17:14:00 30/07/10] Sauros : to me, it's definitely a good challenger
[17:14:03 30/07/10] Snapman : so any ideas with trades realted to china?
[17:14:25 30/07/10] Snapman : long commos related to chiense develop? short them if in over suppply?
[17:14:30 30/07/10] Snapman : short equtiies or long equities
[17:14:31 30/07/10] Snapman : ?
[17:14:46 30/07/10] Sauros : i think the best is mutual funds on chinese stock in USD or GBP
[17:15:14 30/07/10] Snapman : so you are just bulish overall on chinese growth?
[17:15:16 30/07/10] Sauros : as you will profit from the strengthening of the Yuan at the same time
[17:15:21 30/07/10] Snapman : or just thier equities?
[17:15:52 30/07/10] Sauros : me i've invested all my money of mutual fund in Asian stock
[17:16:13 30/07/10] Snapman : haha sounds like a good idea
[17:16:17 30/07/10] Sauros : what is to be known as well is their GDP figures are a bit biased
[17:16:23 30/07/10] Snapman : maybe i will look into some myself
[17:16:34 30/07/10] Snapman : agreed
[17:17:00 30/07/10] Gogol : A bit biased.....I would think a lot
[17:17:04 30/07/10] Gogol : lol
[17:17:06 30/07/10] Sauros : acutally the guys who provide the figures have an incentive on the growth...
[17:17:20 30/07/10] Snapman : yea
[17:17:22 30/07/10] Sauros : so they boost the figures
[17:17:23 30/07/10] Snapman : good numbers or be kiled
[17:17:24 30/07/10] Snapman : lol
[17:17:33 30/07/10] Sauros : a bullet in the head
[17:17:45 30/07/10] Sauros : ok 12% growth
[17:17:46 30/07/10] Gogol : Thats what I was talking to Alex about a couple dasy ago
[17:17:55 30/07/10] Snapman : I just read an article that an anti-corruption official in china was caught accpeting a bribe and now is waiting to be executed
[17:18:21 30/07/10] Gogol : local goverment in China is totally corrupt
[17:18:36 30/07/10] Sauros : they were hiring some FX traders for their 2.3 trillion reserve
[17:18:42 30/07/10] Gogol : thats why infrastructure in rural areas is nonexistent
[17:18:54 30/07/10] Gogol : all the money goes into their pockets
[17:19:01 30/07/10] Sauros : but i think it's not a good idea to lose their money
[17:19:03 30/07/10] Snapman : i would hope as GDP per capital increase corruption decreases
[17:19:07 30/07/10] Snapman : standard of living is important
[17:19:18 30/07/10] Sauros : agreed
[17:19:21 30/07/10] Snapman : which gogol points out maybe hard to achieve
[17:19:32 30/07/10] Snapman : well sign me up give me a slice of those reseves lol
[17:19:51 30/07/10] Gogol : not to mention migrant workers in cities are in camps practically
[17:19:58 30/07/10] Gogol : for "saftey" issues
[17:20:01 30/07/10] Sauros : this said have you read Bill Gross' comment (in the crypt) ?
[17:20:11 30/07/10] Snapman : I hear there a lot of africans in china
[17:20:13 30/07/10] Gogol : not so great distrabution of wealth
[17:20:21 30/07/10] Snapman : they speak chinese too
[17:20:43 30/07/10] Snapman : i haven't gotten to Gross' comment
[17:20:44 30/07/10] Gogol : lol
[17:20:48 30/07/10] Gogol : really?
[17:20:50 30/07/10] Sauros : interesting part on the population growth and the growth
[17:20:54 30/07/10] Gogol : I never saw one loll
[17:21:15 30/07/10] Sauros : should be strange
[17:21:23 30/07/10] Snapman : i really really want to learn about the long history of china, it would defintiley help understanding the current econmy
[17:21:45 30/07/10] Gogol : I got some books if you want to borrow them
[17:22:08 30/07/10] Snapman : sure
[17:22:27 30/07/10] Sauros : another topic you wanted to talk about for the last 10 minutes ?
[17:22:41 30/07/10] Snapman :

17:22:41] Snapman : i was gonna take the long history of china at hte LSE for economic history, but unfortnately i wasn't smart enouhg to finish my degree there lol
[17:22:44] Snapman : to be able to*
[17:22:54] Snapman : tehy got those crazy knowlsege teachers from china who lecture
[17:22:58] Snapman : sure
[17:23:11] Snapman : you have anyhting on your mind sauros?
[17:23:28] Sauros : not really
[17:23:34] Sauros : ah
[17:23:39] Sauros : maybe
[17:24:02] Sauros : I decided recently to focus more on trading
[17:24:18] Sauros : and on a disciplined way of life
[17:24:21] Snapman : great
[17:24:28] Snapman : bushido
[17:24:30] Sauros : to become the ABSOLUTE trader
[17:24:46] Snapman : what have you discovered so far?
[17:25:09] Sauros : it includes press-ups maths stats global macro
[17:25:12] Sauros : etc
[17:25:24] Snapman : press-ups?
[17:25:29] Sauros : but I wanted to discuss with you if you have any idea on this
[17:25:50] Sauros : press-ups : i'm getting fit at the same time
[17:26:01] Batman :
[17:26:03] Snapman : lol very key ask pat about that
[17:26:07] Snapman : he is good with rougtines
[17:26:10] Snapman : routines
[17:26:23] Sauros : for instance the weekly chat is part of this
[17:26:48] Snapman : math and stats… i need more work in this, but i htink its more of an academic intersst type thing
[17:26:50] Sauros : the idea is to optimize the time trading
[17:26:56] Snapman : my style and routine uses some but not extensively
[17:27:04] Snapman : thats a good idea
[17:27:14] Snapman : well you have it harder since you have a day job
[17:27:32] Sauros : you should force yourself in maths and basic stats
[17:27:49] Snapman : i agree
[17:27:58] Snapman : what kind of maths do you recommend?
[17:28:37] Sauros : actually i was thinking that I don't optimize enough all the time I've for my second job
[17:28:56] Sauros : basic stats
[17:29:01] Sauros : and probabilities
[17:29:22] Sauros : enough to back test your strategies
[17:29:22] Snapman : I mean if you set a time each day allocated for trading and micro manage that way maybe it will help? cuz you have to balance first job and family time too
[17:29:44] Sauros : forget about the 1st job
[17:30:04] Sauros : I've here a great opportunity!
[17:30:05] Snapman : one thing i read from some big tradres is keping your trading journal every day, trades waiting, trades done, and have a checklist of indicators and patterns you use recgualry and rules and a technical system
[17:30:15] Snapman : fill out your books everyday and review them end week
[17:30:28] Sauros : yep true
[17:30:31] Snapman : know what to do if your trade goes one way and if know what to do if it goes the othe rway
[17:30:50] Sauros : you need an excel spreadsheet with all your trades
[17:30:54] Snapman : list out how you will trade it for a certiain time frame and o ti for all your secutireis
[17:31:05] Sauros : and then you could do maths on it and optimize
[17:31:20] Snapman : I mean at AC we plan on doing this once we are up and running to help maintain discipline and at the sametime acountablitlity
[17:31:27] Snapman : great point sauros
[17:31:34] Snapman : i mean in portfolio managemnt we will indeed have to do it all the time
[17:31:40] Snapman : unless we rely too much on programs to do it
[17:32:02] Sauros : for instance i've found out that 90% of my winners have at worst 1-ATR move against them
[17:32:27] Sauros : so i've move my stop from 2-ATR to 1-ATR
[17:33:02] Snapman : really?? wow
[17:33:16] Snapman : thats so tight though… but whats your time frame?
[17:33:46] Snapman : usually on average?
[17:34:27] Sauros : couple of days
[17:35:00] Sauros : or stats will show you for instance that it's better to have 4 times 0.5 stops than one 2-ATR stop
[17:35:06] Sauros : stuffs like that
[17:35:29] Snapman : 0.5 stops?
[17:35:44] Sauros : 0.5-ATR
[17:36:08] Snapman : and 4 times?
[17:36:22] Snapman : not sure i follow
[17:36:32] Sauros : i mena i/o having one 2-atr stop
[17:36:38] Sauros : mean*
[17:36:47] Gogol has been disconnected the Fri Jul 30, 2010 5:36 pm (session timeout)
[17:37:17] Sauros : i found out that for my style i'm better off setting up a 0.5 ATR stop
[17:37:45] Sauros : and I could lose up to 4 times to match my 2-ATR
[17:38:00] Snapman : ohhh
[17:38:01] Snapman : i see
[17:38:02] Sauros : i'm not sure i'm clear
[17:38:06] Snapman : i get it
[17:38:17] Snapman : but that requires lots of managemnet
[17:38:34] Snapman : i mean really how optimized is that in teh end? how much you really saving if oyu expecting a few hundred pips*
[17:38:38] Sauros : yep but all the stats will show you things like that
[17:38:50] Snapman : interesting
[17:38:54] Snapman : so you gonna test more?
[17:39:11] Sauros : yep it's in my program
[17:39:16] Snapman : nice
[17:39:17] Gogol has joined the chat on Fri Jul 30, 2010 5:39 pm
[17:39:17] Snapman : ok
[17:39:19] Snapman : well let me know how that goes
[17:39:24] Snapman : actuall we are a bit over time
[17:39:25] Snapman : sorry about that
[17:39:34] Sauros : but one of my idea is to do stats on my own trading and not on the markets (only)
[17:39:41] Sauros : ok great
[17:39:53] Sauros : so we catch up later
[17:40:04] Sauros : thanks for attending
[17:40:16] Gogol : Thank you
[17:40:24] Snapman : sure
[17:40:28] Snapman : well anyone else have comments or questions
[17:40:31] Batman :
[17:40:33] Snapman : im sure not everything was clear
[17:41:40] Sauros : i know i went a bit technical at the end, sorry for this
[17:42:19] Sauros : but the question is "how to become the absolute trader"
[17:42:28] Gogol : lol
[17:42:44] Batman : always interesting to get inside the brain of Sauros..or rather the hand of scalpuman
[17:42:54] Sauros :
[17:43:18] Snapman : cool wel lim all set then
[17:43:34] Gogol : Have a good day lads
[17:43:47] Sauros : and good weekend
[17:43:58] Batman : Peace and Love
[17:44:02] Sauros : TLOFT be with you
[17:44:08] Snapman : ok have a good weekend
[17:44:28] Snapman : haha TLOFT be with you
[17:46:52] Gogol is Disconnected on Fri Jul 30, 2010 5:46 pm





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Snapman

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Posts : 625
Join date : 2009-06-25
Age : 30
Location : New York City

PostSubject: July 30, 2010 Friday discussion   Fri Jul 30, 2010 4:53 pm

16:28:54 30/07/10] Sauros : Hey guys
[16:29:37 30/07/10] Batman : Hey
[16:29:56 30/07/10] Batman : Allis well in the world of global economic financial utopia
[16:30:10 30/07/10] Sauros : how are things ? good to "see" you back
[16:30:10 30/07/10] Batman :
[16:30:38 30/07/10] Batman : I contracted a virus I suspect in Tokyo but I am feeling much better now thank you
[16:30:57 30/07/10] Batman : and u?
[16:30:58 30/07/10] Sauros : hope you get better soon
[16:31:45 30/07/10] Sauros : good, i'm trying to focus harder on the trading
[16:32:04 30/07/10] Batman : That EUR/USD is a femle dog lately
[16:32:26 30/07/10] Sauros : meaning ? sorry
[16:32:55 30/07/10] Batman : female dog = b*tch
[16:33:05 30/07/10] Sauros : ah ok
[16:33:19 30/07/10] Batman : wanted to keep it collegial
[16:33:22 30/07/10] Gogol : Hey
[16:33:44 30/07/10] Gogol : hahaha
[16:33:45 30/07/10] Sauros : actaully i've been bull for a couple of weeks and short stock indices
[16:33:58 30/07/10] Sauros : it started to pay a bit this week
[16:34:17 30/07/10] Sauros : hey gogol, I'm taking my American English lesson here
[16:34:20 30/07/10] Gogol : sure you don't have swine flu
[16:34:28 30/07/10] Batman : I'm sure
[16:34:33 30/07/10] Batman : thanks for the concern
[16:34:43 30/07/10] Gogol : Just looking out
[16:34:50 30/07/10] Sauros : first time in Japan ?
[16:35:00 30/07/10] Batman : Yeah
[16:35:04 30/07/10] Batman : I loved it
[16:35:15 30/07/10] Sauros : Ive never been
[16:35:27 30/07/10] Sauros : sounds great
[16:35:46 30/07/10] Batman : Tokyo is amazing more relaxed than New York
[16:35:51 30/07/10] Gogol : Japan is amazing!
[16:36:06 30/07/10] Sauros : you went for business i understand
[16:36:25 30/07/10] Batman : I met with our 3rd partner
[16:36:32 30/07/10] Snapman : Hello
[16:36:39 30/07/10] Batman : Hey
[16:36:41 30/07/10] Sauros : hey
[16:36:42 30/07/10] Snapman : I just realized bolt bus has internet lol
[16:36:51 30/07/10] Batman : lucky
[16:36:52 30/07/10] Sauros :
[16:36:53 30/07/10] Snapman : Kinda spotty but might work out
[16:37:02 30/07/10] Sauros : cool
[16:37:11 30/07/10] Sauros : shall we start ?
[16:37:20 30/07/10] Batman : Greenltarn will not make it unfortunately
[16:37:29 30/07/10] Snapman : er
[16:37:29 30/07/10] Snapman : same with tom
[16:37:31 30/07/10] Snapman : mith
[16:37:38 30/07/10] Snapman : he is doing something for singapore
[16:38:01 30/07/10] Snapman : well 4's a party
[16:38:04 30/07/10] Sauros : ok so what do you want to start with ?
[16:38:04 30/07/10] Snapman : haha
[16:38:22 30/07/10] Batman : IMF report on US
[16:38:25 30/07/10] Snapman : Any thing anyone had on their mind lately?
[16:38:31 30/07/10] Snapman : what about it
[16:38:36 30/07/10] Snapman : I dind't get a chance to read it
[16:38:52 30/07/10] Snapman : only glanced through it
[16:39:12 30/07/10] Sauros : maybe batman you could summarize
[16:39:25 30/07/10] Batman : They say US banking system needs about 80 B more in caitl, also projected budget deficit for 2010 and 2011 not looking good
[16:39:38 30/07/10] Batman : public debt levels increasing very fast as well
[16:39:52 30/07/10] Batman : capital*
[16:40:21 30/07/10] Batman : also, inflation is not expected to pick up anytime soon or employment for that matter remaining over 9%
[16:40:21 30/07/10] Snapman : i met with an the advisor to the exec director on the IMF board
[16:40:26 30/07/10] Snapman : he had some interesting thoughts on that
[16:40:37 30/07/10] Batman : inflation for 2010-2011 = 1.4% avg
[16:40:58 30/07/10] Batman : Thats the gyst
[16:40:59 30/07/10] Snapman : Do you think that the fiscal situation is a serious problem any time soon?
[16:41:07 30/07/10] Sauros : that shows the risk is more on deflation than inflation
[16:41:19 30/07/10] Snapman : yea
[16:41:26 30/07/10] Snapman : esp with most CB's targeting 3% inflation these days
[16:41:37 30/07/10] Sauros : that would support more easing rather than austerity in the us
[16:41:40 30/07/10] Snapman : or at least being more flexible with it
[16:41:49 30/07/10] Batman : More quantitative easing is in order as Lockhart suggests
[16:42:15 30/07/10] Sauros : yea anyway i think it's bull for the eurusd generally
[16:42:27 30/07/10] Snapman : indeed, but do you see us getting that supposed 80bill of capital through fiscal or monetary means?
[16:42:53 30/07/10] Snapman : whats your reasoning on that bull EUR/USD ?
[16:43:02 30/07/10] Batman : well there was a report in FT Asia this morning that US banks raised 7 B in capital this week
[16:43:06 30/07/10] Batman : private sector
[16:43:17 30/07/10] Sauros : i've been bull on the EURUSD for a couple of week
[16:43:38 30/07/10] Sauros : started with a kind of "pattern recognition"
[16:43:53 30/07/10] Snapman : yea ive been bull too
[16:43:56 30/07/10] Sauros : remember what happened on Dec 09 snapman ?
[16:44:14 30/07/10] Batman : yes
[16:44:38 30/07/10] Sauros : when we were all used to see the eurusd correlated to the global economy
[16:44:51 30/07/10] Sauros : suddenly the NFP printed good results
[16:45:01 30/07/10] Snapman : yep
[16:45:09 30/07/10] Sauros : but the EURUSD instead of jumping slumped
[16:45:23 30/07/10] Batman : an interesting thing the IMF report pointed out is that since we have hd a stronger USD exports have suffered mightly
[16:45:30 30/07/10] Batman : in comparison to 08 09
[16:46:03 30/07/10] Batman : These levels are not sustainable for an export driven recovery
[16:46:16 30/07/10] Sauros : the strong USD hurting the US has been my point since the beginning of this year
[16:46:38 30/07/10] Sauros : that justified my long DAX
[16:47:00 30/07/10] Batman : I believed you even suggested a devaluation
[16:47:04 30/07/10] Snapman : godo point
[16:47:13 30/07/10] Snapman : but are we at the turnign oint then?
[16:47:18 30/07/10] Sauros : to be back to the "pattern", we saw the opposite a few weeks ago
[16:47:19 30/07/10] Snapman : is your trade finally unwinding sauros?
[16:47:42 30/07/10] Sauros : this week it started feeling good
[16:47:53 30/07/10] Snapman : when did you stop being short EUR?
[16:49:12 30/07/10] Gogol : Last time we talked you were short right?
[16:49:19 30/07/10] Sauros : July 1st, i started to be bull EURUSD
[16:49:24 30/07/10] Sauros : I started to be bull eurusd on July 1st
[16:49:35 30/07/10] Snapman : about batmans point* USD is def too strong for export orietned recovery, but arguable the EUR is… and will probably be necessary to get theri GDP numbrs up from this curreny sovergin crises
[16:50:16 30/07/10] Snapman : The US can recover in other ways arguably*
[16:50:32 30/07/10] Sauros : the weak EUR helped Germany
[16:50:43 30/07/10] Batman : I'm referencing the Obamanomic plan
[16:51:05 30/07/10] Gogol : lol
[16:51:21 30/07/10] Batman :
[16:51:45 30/07/10] Snapman : at 1.30 levels defintiely will continue to help germany
[16:52:06 30/07/10] Snapman : pound is continugin to rally though
[16:52:13 30/07/10] Sauros : to end with my "pattern", the bad ISM and at the same time the jump of the EURUSD that day seemed to indicate that the focus of the market was now on weak US
[16:52:16 30/07/10] Batman : I don't believe an export led recovery will help Europe, austerity is the key coupled with a rebalanced EURo economy
[16:52:29 30/07/10] Snapman : im just talking abou numbers
[16:52:30 30/07/10] Snapman : not fundamentals
[16:52:47 30/07/10] Snapman : im not sayings the right thing or a godo thing but its what will help boost things like GDP numbers
[16:52:47 30/07/10] Batman : I'm talking hypotheticals
[16:53:01 30/07/10] Snapman : ?
[16:53:04 30/07/10] Snapman : oh
[16:53:05 30/07/10] Sauros : Merkel is on your way batman
[16:53:14 30/07/10] Snapman : yea
[16:53:16 30/07/10] Snapman : she is
[16:53:21 30/07/10] Snapman : lol
[16:53:43 30/07/10] Sauros : the thing is the recovery is not firm enough and most importantly, there's no inflation to fight
[16:53:59 30/07/10] Snapman : as of yet
[16:54:19 30/07/10] Gogol : http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-07-29/euro-to-rise-to-1-46-highest-this-year-technical-analysis.html
[16:54:28 30/07/10] Snapman : anyone think if we have more stimulus from monetary and fiscal side that there is a hyper inflation risk?
[16:54:28 30/07/10] Gogol : How do people feel about this?
[16:54:45 30/07/10] Sauros : the germans are biaised in their fear of inflation
[16:55:19 30/07/10] Snapman : lol
[16:55:21 30/07/10] Snapman : post wwII
[16:55:25 30/07/10] Snapman : very good point
[16:55:30 30/07/10] Snapman : they def will be more hawkish
[16:56:37 30/07/10] Snapman : I Love how they define medium term…. wat the heck does that mean?
[16:56:38 30/07/10] Sauros : I think in the short term 1.3120 or so will be a strong resistance
[16:56:57 30/07/10] Snapman : it definitly has been
[16:57:16 30/07/10] Sauros : the eurusd is very linked with the SPX too, and the latter has to break its 200-SMA and 50% retracement
[16:57:19 30/07/10] Snapman : hopefully it trades sideways again mkaing agood entry point for another big pip rally
[16:57:28 30/07/10] Snapman : to the upside
[16:57:31 30/07/10] Sauros : you guys use Fibonacci retracements ?
[16:57:41 30/07/10] Snapman : ive been doing it more lol
[16:57:55 30/07/10] Snapman : lots of time they coincide with short term resistence and support
[16:58:00 30/07/10] Snapman : one thing i haven't gotten into is wave analysis
[16:58:17 30/07/10] Snapman : and plus tons of forex heads use fib's
[16:58:21 30/07/10] Snapman : its self fulling at times
[16:58:34 30/07/10] Sauros : fibs are like voodoo to me but... it seems working
[16:58:50 30/07/10] Snapman : oh my friend who does fortune telling says stocks will rise to the end of august
[16:58:54 30/07/10] Sauros : Elliott Waves needs a lot of practice
[16:59:03 30/07/10] Snapman : yea it is voodoo with the underlying concept
[16:59:07 30/07/10] Sauros : SHORT
[16:59:15 30/07/10] Snapman : but i mean doens't matter as long as enough people believe in it
[16:59:27 30/07/10] Snapman : lol you never know we will see
[16:59:33 30/07/10] Gogol : Sounds like most religions
[16:59:41 30/07/10] Snapman : who is bullish on hte SPX?
[16:59:41 30/07/10] Sauros : yep
[17:00:05 30/07/10] Snapman : well diff is that enough people using and belivnig in trading makes trends and profits real lol
[17:00:17 30/07/10] Gogol : true
[17:00:28 30/07/10] Sauros : no i think the 200-SMA and the 50% retracement and the 1100-mark is too much obstacles
[17:00:30 30/07/10] Snapman : look term chart quite bearish for the SPX
[17:00:31 30/07/10] Batman : yeah SPX bull
[17:00:39 30/07/10] Snapman : on the daily chart right?
[17:00:40 30/07/10] Sauros : in the short term at least
[17:00:53 30/07/10] Gogol : I am bullish on the Euro so I guess that would make me bullish on SPX
[17:01:00 30/07/10] Sauros : yep daily
[17:01:10 30/07/10] Snapman : i leaning on the bear side in the next few weeks and maybe even further out
[17:01:25 30/07/10] Sauros : that's my point gogol, i think the correlation EURUSD and SPX could break
[17:01:28 30/07/10] Snapman : you check the correlations between the equities and eur?
[17:01:40 30/07/10] Snapman : well past few days EUR rallying wiht SPX declines
[17:01:43 30/07/10] Snapman : short term
[17:02:06 30/07/10] Sauros : yep it's been my trade and this week it started paying off
[17:02:25 30/07/10] Gogol : I see
[17:02:38 30/07/10] Snapman : hehe
[17:02:40 30/07/10] Sauros : focus on the "bad" US economy
[17:02:59 30/07/10] Snapman : even if US economy is bad… who is better?
[17:03:09 30/07/10] Batman : Japan
[17:03:11 30/07/10] Snapman : in terms of economies
[17:03:27 30/07/10] Snapman : id disagree
[17:03:43 30/07/10] Snapman : they still barely have gotten out of deflation
[17:03:55 30/07/10] Snapman : had higher unemployment longer than the US
[17:04:01 30/07/10] Batman : They have a huge currnt account surplus, not to mention low unempoyment
[17:04:07 30/07/10] Batman : no
[17:04:15 30/07/10] Sauros : the got out of deflation at the very moment of the crisis
[17:04:21 30/07/10] Batman : around 5%
[17:04:29 30/07/10] Snapman : historically
[17:05:01 30/07/10] Snapman : im talking overall economy - its why china and japan continue to be biggest buyers of US debt
[17:05:03 30/07/10] Snapman : most stble most liquid
[17:05:14 30/07/10] Snapman : even if US fails not many other options
[17:05:38 30/07/10] Sauros : US rule the world
[17:05:50 30/07/10] Batman : Maybe
[17:05:54 30/07/10] Snapman : they been improveing slightly but hasn't been long enough to say they are much better than US at htis point
[17:06:02 30/07/10] Batman : Things can change quickly
[17:06:07 30/07/10] Sauros : and China ?
[17:06:19 30/07/10] Sauros : they are the 2nd economy now
[17:06:20 30/07/10] Batman : Overheating
[17:06:29 30/07/10] Snapman : China thats gonna take light years to catc up and who knows how real their actual numbers are
[17:06:32 30/07/10] Gogol : didn't unemployment just rise to 5.3% in Japan
[17:06:45 30/07/10] Snapman : maybe
[17:06:57 30/07/10] Sauros : china are the big "winners" of the crisis
[17:07:05 30/07/10] Snapman : haven't followed up recetnly, but who knows im sure it will be revised in another quarter
[17:07:09 30/07/10] Sauros : tehir peg is doing good actually
[17:07:11 30/07/10] Batman : U think so?
[17:07:28 30/07/10] Snapman : yea indeed those exports keep on rollin
[17:07:35 30/07/10] Batman : They overstimulated their economy a bit too much
[17:07:43 30/07/10] Batman : a lot of bad bank loans
[17:07:45 30/07/10] Snapman : i wouldn't say recently they've benefitted but through 08 and 09
[17:07:57 30/07/10] Batman : true
[17:08:33 30/07/10] Sauros : the thing is overheat and hyper inflation is that a think the tools the CB have to stem it are better now
[17:08:44 30/07/10] Snapman : i think they had enough deposits to justify their loans and if they continue to tighten lending they might get away with a soft landing if this is a "bubble" that needs to pop
[17:09:49 30/07/10] Batman : Gogol what u think ?
[17:09:56 30/07/10] Snapman : Im just was more worreid aout the nubmer of cpaital that seeped into the equity markets form excess liqaudity
[17:10:03 30/07/10] Snapman : but as we've seen their stock have corrected signifciantly
[17:10:57 30/07/10] Batman : I worry they have stockpiled too many assets that cannot be put to use for years...
[17:11:06 30/07/10] Batman : physical commodities
[17:11:35 30/07/10] Sauros : but at the same time they're consumers of them
[17:11:42 30/07/10] Gogol : I don't think that the loan issue is going to be all that big of a deal
[17:11:53 30/07/10] Snapman : yea i want to do mroe research if they've been able to disperese FDI and inftracutral developments
[17:12:03 30/07/10] Gogol : they still have made pretty robust profits if I am not wrong
[17:12:11 30/07/10] Snapman : i mena a lot of the supposed banking structures should be in place to help faclicate this… but who knows how unorgnaize chinese banks are
[17:13:10 30/07/10] Gogol : plus recently China started to demand raw materials again
[17:14:00 30/07/10] Sauros : to me, it's definitely a good challenger
[17:14:03 30/07/10] Snapman : so any ideas with trades realted to china?
[17:14:25 30/07/10] Snapman : long commos related to chiense develop? short them if in over suppply?
[17:14:30 30/07/10] Snapman : short equtiies or long equities
[17:14:31 30/07/10] Snapman : ?
[17:14:46 30/07/10] Sauros : i think the best is mutual funds on chinese stock in USD or GBP
[17:15:14 30/07/10] Snapman : so you are just bulish overall on chinese growth?
[17:15:16 30/07/10] Sauros : as you will profit from the strengthening of the Yuan at the same time
[17:15:21 30/07/10] Snapman : or just thier equities?
[17:15:52 30/07/10] Sauros : me i've invested all my money of mutual fund in Asian stock
[17:16:13 30/07/10] Snapman : haha sounds like a good idea
[17:16:17 30/07/10] Sauros : what is to be known as well is their GDP figures are a bit biased
[17:16:23 30/07/10] Snapman : maybe i will look into some myself
[17:16:34 30/07/10] Snapman : agreed
[17:17:00 30/07/10] Gogol : A bit biased.....I would think a lot
[17:17:04 30/07/10] Gogol : lol
[17:17:06 30/07/10] Sauros : acutally the guys who provide the figures have an incentive on the growth...
[17:17:20 30/07/10] Snapman : yea
[17:17:22 30/07/10] Sauros : so they boost the figures
[17:17:23 30/07/10] Snapman : good numbers or be kiled
[17:17:24 30/07/10] Snapman : lol
[17:17:33 30/07/10] Sauros : a bullet in the head
[17:17:45 30/07/10] Sauros : ok 12% growth
[17:17:46 30/07/10] Gogol : Thats what I was talking to Alex about a couple dasy ago
[17:17:55 30/07/10] Snapman : I just read an article that an anti-corruption official in china was caught accpeting a bribe and now is waiting to be executed
[17:18:21 30/07/10] Gogol : local goverment in China is totally corrupt
[17:18:36 30/07/10] Sauros : they were hiring some FX traders for their 2.3 trillion reserve
[17:18:42 30/07/10] Gogol : thats why infrastructure in rural areas is nonexistent
[17:18:54 30/07/10] Gogol : all the money goes into their pockets
[17:19:01 30/07/10] Sauros : but i think it's not a good idea to lose their money
[17:19:03 30/07/10] Snapman : i would hope as GDP per capital increase corruption decreases
[17:19:07 30/07/10] Snapman : standard of living is important
[17:19:18 30/07/10] Sauros : agreed
[17:19:21 30/07/10] Snapman : which gogol points out maybe hard to achieve
[17:19:32 30/07/10] Snapman : well sign me up give me a slice of those reseves lol
[17:19:51 30/07/10] Gogol : not to mention migrant workers in cities are in camps practically
[17:19:58 30/07/10] Gogol : for "saftey" issues
[17:20:01 30/07/10] Sauros : this said have you read Bill Gross' comment (in the crypt) ?
[17:20:11 30/07/10] Snapman : I hear there a lot of africans in china
[17:20:13 30/07/10] Gogol : not so great distrabution of wealth
[17:20:21 30/07/10] Snapman : they speak chinese too
[17:20:43 30/07/10] Snapman : i haven't gotten to Gross' comment
[17:20:44 30/07/10] Gogol : lol
[17:20:48 30/07/10] Gogol : really?
[17:20:50 30/07/10] Sauros : interesting part on the population growth and the growth
[17:20:54 30/07/10] Gogol : I never saw one loll
[17:21:15 30/07/10] Sauros : should be strange
[17:21:23 30/07/10] Snapman : i really really want to learn about the long history of china, it would defintiley help understanding the current econmy
[17:21:45 30/07/10] Gogol : I got some books if you want to borrow them
[17:22:08 30/07/10] Snapman : sure
[17:22:27 30/07/10] Sauros : another topic you wanted to talk about for the last 10 minutes ?
[17:22:41 30/07/10] Snapman :

17:22:41] Snapman : i was gonna take the long history of china at hte LSE for economic history, but unfortnately i wasn't smart enouhg to finish my degree there lol
[17:22:44] Snapman : to be able to*
[17:22:54] Snapman : tehy got those crazy knowlsege teachers from china who lecture
[17:22:58] Snapman : sure
[17:23:11] Snapman : you have anyhting on your mind sauros?
[17:23:28] Sauros : not really
[17:23:34] Sauros : ah
[17:23:39] Sauros : maybe
[17:24:02] Sauros : I decided recently to focus more on trading
[17:24:18] Sauros : and on a disciplined way of life
[17:24:21] Snapman : great
[17:24:28] Snapman : bushido
[17:24:30] Sauros : to become the ABSOLUTE trader
[17:24:46] Snapman : what have you discovered so far?
[17:25:09] Sauros : it includes press-ups maths stats global macro
[17:25:12] Sauros : etc
[17:25:24] Snapman : press-ups?
[17:25:29] Sauros : but I wanted to discuss with you if you have any idea on this
[17:25:50] Sauros : press-ups : i'm getting fit at the same time
[17:26:01] Batman :
[17:26:03] Snapman : lol very key ask pat about that
[17:26:07] Snapman : he is good with rougtines
[17:26:10] Snapman : routines
[17:26:23] Sauros : for instance the weekly chat is part of this
[17:26:48] Snapman : math and stats… i need more work in this, but i htink its more of an academic intersst type thing
[17:26:50] Sauros : the idea is to optimize the time trading
[17:26:56] Snapman : my style and routine uses some but not extensively
[17:27:04] Snapman : thats a good idea
[17:27:14] Snapman : well you have it harder since you have a day job
[17:27:32] Sauros : you should force yourself in maths and basic stats
[17:27:49] Snapman : i agree
[17:27:58] Snapman : what kind of maths do you recommend?
[17:28:37] Sauros : actually i was thinking that I don't optimize enough all the time I've for my second job
[17:28:56] Sauros : basic stats
[17:29:01] Sauros : and probabilities
[17:29:22] Sauros : enough to back test your strategies
[17:29:22] Snapman : I mean if you set a time each day allocated for trading and micro manage that way maybe it will help? cuz you have to balance first job and family time too
[17:29:44] Sauros : forget about the 1st job
[17:30:04] Sauros : I've here a great opportunity!
[17:30:05] Snapman : one thing i read from some big tradres is keping your trading journal every day, trades waiting, trades done, and have a checklist of indicators and patterns you use recgualry and rules and a technical system
[17:30:15] Snapman : fill out your books everyday and review them end week
[17:30:28] Sauros : yep true
[17:30:31] Snapman : know what to do if your trade goes one way and if know what to do if it goes the othe rway
[17:30:50] Sauros : you need an excel spreadsheet with all your trades
[17:30:54] Snapman : list out how you will trade it for a certiain time frame and o ti for all your secutireis
[17:31:05] Sauros : and then you could do maths on it and optimize
[17:31:20] Snapman : I mean at AC we plan on doing this once we are up and running to help maintain discipline and at the sametime acountablitlity
[17:31:27] Snapman : great point sauros
[17:31:34] Snapman : i mean in portfolio managemnt we will indeed have to do it all the time
[17:31:40] Snapman : unless we rely too much on programs to do it
[17:32:02] Sauros : for instance i've found out that 90% of my winners have at worst 1-ATR move against them
[17:32:27] Sauros : so i've move my stop from 2-ATR to 1-ATR
[17:33:02] Snapman : really?? wow
[17:33:16] Snapman : thats so tight though… but whats your time frame?
[17:33:46] Snapman : usually on average?
[17:34:27] Sauros : couple of days
[17:35:00] Sauros : or stats will show you for instance that it's better to have 4 times 0.5 stops than one 2-ATR stop
[17:35:06] Sauros : stuffs like that
[17:35:29] Snapman : 0.5 stops?
[17:35:44] Sauros : 0.5-ATR
[17:36:08] Snapman : and 4 times?
[17:36:22] Snapman : not sure i follow
[17:36:32] Sauros : i mena i/o having one 2-atr stop
[17:36:38] Sauros : mean*
[17:36:47] Gogol has been disconnected the Fri Jul 30, 2010 5:36 pm (session timeout)
[17:37:17] Sauros : i found out that for my style i'm better off setting up a 0.5 ATR stop
[17:37:45] Sauros : and I could lose up to 4 times to match my 2-ATR
[17:38:00] Snapman : ohhh
[17:38:01] Snapman : i see
[17:38:02] Sauros : i'm not sure i'm clear
[17:38:06] Snapman : i get it
[17:38:17] Snapman : but that requires lots of managemnet
[17:38:34] Snapman : i mean really how optimized is that in teh end? how much you really saving if oyu expecting a few hundred pips*
[17:38:38] Sauros : yep but all the stats will show you things like that
[17:38:50] Snapman : interesting
[17:38:54] Snapman : so you gonna test more?
[17:39:11] Sauros : yep it's in my program
[17:39:16] Snapman : nice
[17:39:17] Gogol has joined the chat on Fri Jul 30, 2010 5:39 pm
[17:39:17] Snapman : ok
[17:39:19] Snapman : well let me know how that goes
[17:39:24] Snapman : actuall we are a bit over time
[17:39:25] Snapman : sorry about that
[17:39:34] Sauros : but one of my idea is to do stats on my own trading and not on the markets (only)
[17:39:41] Sauros : ok great
[17:39:53] Sauros : so we catch up later
[17:40:04] Sauros : thanks for attending
[17:40:16] Gogol : Thank you
[17:40:24] Snapman : sure
[17:40:28] Snapman : well anyone else have comments or questions
[17:40:31] Batman :
[17:40:33] Snapman : im sure not everything was clear
[17:41:40] Sauros : i know i went a bit technical at the end, sorry for this
[17:42:19] Sauros : but the question is "how to become the absolute trader"
[17:42:28] Gogol : lol
[17:42:44] Batman : always interesting to get inside the brain of Sauros..or rather the hand of scalpuman
[17:42:54] Sauros :
[17:43:18] Snapman : cool wel lim all set then
[17:43:34] Gogol : Have a good day lads
[17:43:47] Sauros : and good weekend
[17:43:58] Batman : Peace and Love
[17:44:02] Sauros : TLOFT be with you
[17:44:08] Snapman : ok have a good weekend
[17:44:28] Snapman : haha TLOFT be with you
[17:46:52] Gogol is Disconnected on Fri Jul 30, 2010 5:46 pm





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PostSubject: Re: Weekly market Discussions   Mon Aug 02, 2010 4:47 pm

I think those first 2 discussions were very beneficial for all of us, thanks again for your attendance.

In order to maximize the benefits of those chats, I believe that we should start defining some kind of agenda during the week a bit in advance so all the attendees have time to prepare arguments.
We could use this thread to suggest the topics on the coming discussion, what do you think ?
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PostSubject: Re: Weekly market Discussions   Mon Aug 02, 2010 4:50 pm

Sauros wrote:
I think those first 2 discussions were very beneficial for all of us, thanks again for your attendance.

In order to maximize the benefits of those chats, I believe that we should start defining some kind of agenda during the week a bit in advance so all the attendees have time to prepare arguments.
We could use this thread to suggest the topics on the coming discussion, what do you think ?

Sure thats a great idea we can start posting suggestions here
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PostSubject: Re: Weekly market Discussions   Tue Aug 03, 2010 4:09 pm

Snapman wrote:

Sure thats a great idea we can start posting suggestions here

I think that for the one on Aug 6th, it's gonna be hard to avoid the classic "EURUSD and SPX"
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PostSubject: Re: Weekly market Discussions   Tue Aug 03, 2010 4:10 pm

Sauros wrote:
Snapman wrote:

Sure thats a great idea we can start posting suggestions here

I think that for the one on Aug 6th, it's gonna be hard to avoid the classic "EURUSD and SPX"

sounds like a good idea. that could be a good focus
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PostSubject: Re: Weekly market Discussions   Tue Aug 03, 2010 4:18 pm

Snapman wrote:
Sauros wrote:
Snapman wrote:

Sure thats a great idea we can start posting suggestions here

I think that for the one on Aug 6th, it's gonna be hard to avoid the classic "EURUSD and SPX"

sounds like a good idea. that could be a good focus

Yep among other topics
Other suggestions ?
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PostSubject: Re: Weekly market Discussions   Tue Aug 03, 2010 7:09 pm

Some Ideas

1. U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday morning. This could be a nice segway into discussing further stimulus and or quantitative easycy by the FED.

1a. Monetary Policy- BOE and ECB announce rate decisions and will adress the markets on Thursday. Austerity vs. Stimulus.

2. Financial Earnings- C, JPM, BAC, HSBC, Goldman, Santandar, Credit Agricole Investment Bank Smile... Segway this into The overall global financial credit markets. WHo is borrowing money, Which industries are suffering due to lack of supply. Where are we seeing new businesses sprout up, and new credit related products/securities.

3. Political Instability- How U.S. elections or rather campaign season September- November will impact U.S. equity prices. Japan and Naoto Kan, will he last? What time of fiscal reform needs to be implemented there?

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PostSubject: a   Wed Aug 04, 2010 2:11 pm

Batman wrote:
Some Ideas

1. U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday morning. This could be a nice segway into discussing further stimulus and or quantitative easycy by the FED.

1a. Monetary Policy- BOE and ECB announce rate decisions and will adress the markets on Thursday. Austerity vs. Stimulus.

2. Financial Earnings- C, JPM, BAC, HSBC, Goldman, Santandar, Credit Agricole Investment Bank ... Segway this into The overall global financial credit markets. WHo is borrowing money, Which industries are suffering due to lack of supply. Where are we seeing new businesses sprout up, and new credit related products/securities.

3. Political Instability- How U.S. elections or rather campaign season September- November will impact U.S. equity prices. Japan and Naoto Kan, will he last? What time of fiscal reform needs to be implemented there?


Many Thanks! So for now let's go for :

1 - Austerity vs Growth debate
a - comments on NFP, ISM and economics figures
b - Monetary policies ECB, BOE and FED
c - impact on SPX and EUR

3. Political Instability- How U.S. elections or rather campaign season September- November will impact U.S. equity prices. Japan and Naoto Kan, will he last? What time of fiscal reform needs to be implemented there?


For 2, I'm not really up to date as I don't look at single names, not sure I'll be of help on the topic.
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PostSubject: Re: Weekly market Discussions   Wed Aug 04, 2010 2:20 pm

Sauros wrote:
Batman wrote:
Some Ideas

1. U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday morning. This could be a nice segway into discussing further stimulus and or quantitative easycy by the FED.

1a. Monetary Policy- BOE and ECB announce rate decisions and will adress the markets on Thursday. Austerity vs. Stimulus.

2. Financial Earnings- C, JPM, BAC, HSBC, Goldman, Santandar, Credit Agricole Investment Bank ... Segway this into The overall global financial credit markets. WHo is borrowing money, Which industries are suffering due to lack of supply. Where are we seeing new businesses sprout up, and new credit related products/securities.

3. Political Instability- How U.S. elections or rather campaign season September- November will impact U.S. equity prices. Japan and Naoto Kan, will he last? What time of fiscal reform needs to be implemented there?


Many Thanks! So for now let's go for :

1 - Austerity vs Growth debate
a - comments on NFP, ISM and economics figures
b - Monetary policies ECB, BOE and FED
c - impact on SPX and EUR

3. Political Instability- How U.S. elections or rather campaign season September- November will impact U.S. equity prices. Japan and Naoto Kan, will he last? What time of fiscal reform needs to be implemented there?


For 2, I'm not really up to date as I don't look at single names, not sure I'll be of help on the topic.

Well its always a good time to learn Wink … and you have super valuable insights as you work for a bank yourself Smile
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PostSubject: Re: Weekly market Discussions   Wed Aug 04, 2010 5:28 pm

Snapman wrote:


Well its always a good time to learn … and you have super valuable insights as you work for a bank yourself
Agreed, but the thing is I don't really try to get an edge on single names, I've always delegated the task to asset managers, that's their job not mine. I think it's hard to compete against armies of analysts with huge insights, relationships in the companies at top level for years.

However, I'm happy to add Batman's (2) to the agenda. You guys will lead on this Razz
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PostSubject: Re: Weekly market Discussions   Fri Aug 06, 2010 4:39 pm

August 6th, 2010:




-------

16:26:43 06/08/10] Batman : Hey
[16:27:04 06/08/10] Sauros : hey
[16:27:12 06/08/10] Sauros : you ok?
[16:27:41 06/08/10] Snapman : ok back
[16:27:54 06/08/10] Snapman : damn my phone was on vibrate everyone calling me about the EUR action lol
[16:28:04 06/08/10] Snapman : sorry i missed your txt before pat
[16:28:07 06/08/10] Batman : Snapman is popular
[16:28:23 06/08/10] Snapman : haha
[16:28:28 06/08/10] Snapman : hardly
[16:28:45 06/08/10] Snapman : i was just reading an article that says if you are a good leader 95% of the things said about you are negative
[16:28:49 06/08/10] Sauros : tell Megan Fox to call later
[16:28:56 06/08/10] Snapman : she did but i was too busy
[16:29:21 06/08/10] Snapman : hello there mith
[16:29:25 06/08/10] Snapman : how are you doing this fine day
[16:29:26 06/08/10] Mithrandir : hello
[16:29:33 06/08/10] Batman : Hateres are just another form of fans
[16:29:37 06/08/10] Mithrandir : i am doing very well
[16:29:38 06/08/10] Sauros : interesting correlation between good leader and popularity
[16:29:46 06/08/10] Snapman : haha
[16:29:52 06/08/10] Snapman : depends on what kind of popularity
[16:30:15 06/08/10] Sauros : I'm too cool guy to be a leader
[16:30:31 06/08/10] Snapman : you are a leader of oyur family
[16:30:39 06/08/10] Batman :
[16:30:45 06/08/10] Snapman : conquer thyself, conquor your family, conquer your nation, conquer the world
[16:30:46 06/08/10] Sauros : you mean my wife is
[16:30:53 06/08/10] Snapman : hahah
[16:30:55 06/08/10] Snapman : well if thats teh case
[16:31:21 06/08/10] Sauros : my job is just money faster than she spends it
[16:31:26 06/08/10] Snapman : ah
[16:31:29 06/08/10] Snapman : hello green lantern
[16:31:30 06/08/10] Sauros : make money*
[16:31:34 06/08/10] Mithrandir : haha excellent
[16:31:37 06/08/10] Snapman : im glad you made it the league of traders woudlnt' be complete
[16:31:46 06/08/10] green lantern : hello everyone
[16:31:50 06/08/10] Sauros : and she's quite fast believe me
[16:31:50 06/08/10] Batman : green latern. Justice league time
[16:31:58 06/08/10] Snapman : indeed
[16:32:12 06/08/10] Sauros : the league of extraordnary gentlemen is complete now
[16:32:25 06/08/10] Snapman : we shold have a batman vs superman discussion some other day lol
[16:32:34 06/08/10] Batman : Sean conery is late
[16:32:39 06/08/10] Mithrandir : im not allowed to use my powers though, just got ot stick to being wise so you guys can do all the work, ill remain in the office smoking pirate shipsfrom my pipe
[16:32:42 06/08/10] Snapman : hes getting ol
[16:32:43 06/08/10] Snapman : old
[16:32:51 06/08/10] Sauros : looks like pay day for my long EURUSD - short SPX
[16:32:52 06/08/10] Snapman : haha
[16:32:59 06/08/10] Snapman : today?
[16:33:10 06/08/10] Batman : i like
[16:33:11 06/08/10] Sauros : Sean Connery is advertising for Credit Agricole : that's the end of a career ....
[16:33:34 06/08/10] Snapman : hurrah on the big drop on the spx today
[16:33:40 06/08/10] Sauros : I meant that's very a bad way to finish...
[16:33:51 06/08/10] Snapman : lets hope it comes crashing through the 50 MA as well
[16:34:04 06/08/10] Sauros : have you seen NFP ?
[16:34:32 06/08/10] Snapman : yea
[16:34:35 06/08/10] Snapman : -131k
[16:34:39 06/08/10] Snapman : expected -65
[16:34:47 06/08/10] Sauros : NFP at -131K (vs -65K estimated) while the unemployment rate stays at 9.5% (vs 9.6% est)
[16:34:50 06/08/10] Snapman : euro is flyin sky high man
[16:34:59 06/08/10] Sauros : that's why the SPX drop and the EURUSD jump
[16:34:59 06/08/10] Snapman : you so lucky sauros
[16:35:18 06/08/10] Sauros : not lucky, that's talent
[16:35:22 06/08/10] Snapman : you get to wkae up before the action, whereas I hve to stay up or wake super early or not sleep lol
[16:35:46 06/08/10] Snapman : i was referring to the time zone benefit :p
[16:35:49 06/08/10] Sauros : actaully i entered the position one month ago or so
[16:35:54 06/08/10] Snapman : hehe
[16:36:02 06/08/10] Snapman : you got a godo conviction
[16:36:23 06/08/10] Snapman : too bad i don't have the capital clout to match that style of trading yet
[16:36:45 06/08/10] Sauros : but today is really what i expected, bad US data -> stocks down -> expectation of further QE
[16:36:55 06/08/10] Snapman : so mith or g.lantern any thoughts on jobs?
[16:37:34 06/08/10] Batman : Private sector growth sucked
[16:37:41 06/08/10] Mithrandir : well its dissapointing that the numbers are pretty low
[16:37:42 06/08/10] Batman : I was looking for 80k
[16:38:05 06/08/10] Batman : Next round of QE, MBS or Treasury purchases?
[16:38:05 06/08/10] Snapman : nothing you didn't expect though?
[16:38:10 06/08/10] Snapman : or inline wiht your expectaints?
[16:38:11 06/08/10] green lantern : it doesn't come as a surpirse. I would say the one negative is that the fed is even more likely to keep rates at the very low level it is at now.
[16:38:19 06/08/10] Snapman : doesn't change your current thesis about economy right?
[16:38:30 06/08/10] Snapman : yea I think sauros brought up a good poitn
[16:38:34 06/08/10] Mithrandir : the times has a good chart that reveals how the job growth from the past 2 years
[16:38:40 06/08/10] Sauros : this week, the jobless claims were bad yesterday as well, ISM were better than expected
[16:38:45 06/08/10] Snapman : that gives more evidence to use more QE (quantitative easing)
[16:39:13 06/08/10] Batman : The FED has become another arm of the US gov
[16:39:22 06/08/10] Mithrandir : what it also reveals that in the U.S case as soon as the stimulus ended job growth decreased again, which is bad news because it tells us the country can't support any growth without the aid of the federal government, at least presently
[16:39:35 06/08/10] Sauros : agreed for the gov arm
[16:39:56 06/08/10] Sauros : I think it changes my med term view on the global crash
[16:40:01 06/08/10] Snapman : ok so tell me with the SPX trends… the whole rally we saw from FEB to MAY was led by consumer discretionaly and industrials…. so how does the jobs #'s maybe related?
[16:40:03 06/08/10] Mithrandir : and i think we could be entering a very dangerous cycle were
[16:40:04 06/08/10] Sauros : the FED is still here and veils
[16:40:38 06/08/10] Snapman : you more bearish mid term now Sauros?
[16:40:40 06/08/10] Sauros : we're in the austerity vs growth debate here
[16:41:05 06/08/10] Mithrandir : well, and i may be a bit ignorant here, but i think the jobs were essentially floated during that period because of stimulus money
[16:41:14 06/08/10] Batman : austerity baby
[16:41:26 06/08/10] Snapman : so like temporary jobs were created is what yo usaying mith?
[16:41:46 06/08/10] Sauros : actually i was bearish US because I believed that Obama had no room to do whatever it takes to support
[16:41:46 06/08/10] Snapman : with electiosn aroudn the corner do you think the US is gonan do anythign with austerity?
[16:41:50 06/08/10] Mithrandir : yes, but also jobs that would have been cut had there not been a stimulous were kept
[16:42:04 06/08/10] Snapman : i dunno about euro elections but there is maybe the same arguement?
[16:42:07 06/08/10] Sauros : now with the FED, I'm more bullish (say less bearish) on US
[16:42:24 06/08/10] Snapman : ok
[16:42:56 06/08/10] Sauros : now i think that while the unemplyment is around 10%, it's crazy to tighten
[16:43:18 06/08/10] Mithrandir : and now that the money has run out states/large corporations are being forced to finally cut the jobs they were avoiding to do earlier this year
[16:43:27 06/08/10] Batman : Monetary policy should stay loosey goosey
[16:43:51 06/08/10] Snapman : oh good point mith
[16:43:56 06/08/10] Batman : More easy funds for Banks, more room for equities to go up
[16:44:08 06/08/10] Snapman : yea but what about europe? i mean the unemployemnt isn't signficantly better
[16:44:29 06/08/10] Mithrandir : yeah but if the FED keeps pumping in money into the eocnomy to float the states and jobs, it may install bad habits which could he hard to deter
[16:44:40 06/08/10] Snapman : moral hazzard arguement lol
[16:44:52 06/08/10] Snapman : its too late we been there and done that they hveno choce unless they want another hard crash
[16:44:56 06/08/10] Mithrandir : i mean i believe more stimulous is necessary, however i also believe that the U.S and other economies need to create policy changes on the small scale
[16:44:59 06/08/10] Snapman : they have no choice*
[16:45:42 06/08/10] Snapman : g.latern whats your take?
[16:46:05 06/08/10] Mithrandir : thats true, its a real mess that is going take some real smart policy makers to solve
[16:46:19 06/08/10] Sauros : the debate is slightly different between Europe and US
[16:46:21 06/08/10] Batman : Stimulus is a waste
[16:46:28 06/08/10] Batman : Fiscal policy needs reform
[16:46:40 06/08/10] Snapman : whats teh arguement with tightening right now for Europe ?
[16:46:47 06/08/10] Sauros : mmh i'd like to see where we would be without stimulus
[16:46:47 06/08/10] green lantern : I want the gov't to hold out on more stumulus unless it is absolutely necessary.
[16:47:14 06/08/10] Batman : Wed be in a very tough place
[16:47:18 06/08/10] green lantern : but then again it could be too little too late
[16:47:33 06/08/10] Batman : ^^^
[16:47:37 06/08/10] Snapman : might be too late then with timing though…. thing is with fiscal it gets filtered into the economy much faster than montary… though arguably if think congress will take too long to decide then it might be the same
[16:47:45 06/08/10] Sauros : here we cnat say that was too little
[16:48:08 06/08/10] Snapman : haha no stimulus… good question
[16:49:02 06/08/10] Snapman : so i want to know everyones opinon on the relation between the DAX, SPX, and EUR
[16:49:12 06/08/10] Mithrandir : sauros i am curious how the europeans are reacting to the troubles Russia is having with forest fires and drought?
[16:49:37 06/08/10] Snapman : just curious*
[16:49:45 06/08/10] Sauros : we feel it in the wheat price .....
[16:49:54 06/08/10] Mithrandir : we noticed a huge climb in wheat prices
[16:49:59 06/08/10] Snapman : is europe a big importer of russian wheat?"
[16:50:25 06/08/10] Snapman : it shuold be possible to get wheat from africa too?
[16:50:26 06/08/10] Sauros : I think the impact of the ban could be of importance
[16:51:34 06/08/10] Mithrandir : that is interesting, especially for country like france which produces so much wheat, i would be very disappointed if the russian troubles would acutally affect the french market for wheat
[16:52:13 06/08/10] Mithrandir : may bad alex just realized i cut you off above
[16:52:15 06/08/10] Batman : Canada has had a great year growing wheat
[16:53:00 06/08/10] Sauros : actually for wheat like for any commodities, the producers always benefit big time from booming prices
[16:53:35 06/08/10] Sauros : commos are all about supply and demand
[16:53:52 06/08/10] Snapman : aruguably all securities are about S/D
[16:54:18 06/08/10] Mithrandir : true, your right, i was thinking of it in terms of whether france imports much of its wheat, which is something i would assume isn't the case
[16:54:40 06/08/10] Snapman : yea thats one of the projects i really wanted o tackle is getting a country economic profile
[16:55:02 06/08/10] Snapman : have this info on hand
[16:55:26 06/08/10] Sauros : to be frank i don't have the data for France handy
[16:55:28 06/08/10] Mithrandir : true, that would be helpful
[16:55:37 06/08/10] Snapman : yea
[16:56:20 06/08/10] green lantern : I'm interested in everyone's opinion on AIG. With the insurer beating estimates and talking about the a complete gov't exit, does the stock have more upward potential?
[16:56:48 06/08/10] Snapman : To be honest I haven't followed how it has been restructred
[16:56:53 06/08/10] Sauros : now back to Snapmna's question on SPX, DAX, EUR, I guess I'll shortly switch from long DAX to short and short SPX to long
[16:57:17 06/08/10] Snapman : and long EUR?
[16:57:40 06/08/10] Sauros : yep long EUR so far...
[16:57:59 06/08/10] Snapman : so you considering EUR trades alone
[16:58:06 06/08/10] Snapman : without relation to SPX or Dax?
[16:58:32 06/08/10] Batman : Long Dax
[16:58:50 06/08/10] Sauros : on the one hand, the ECB starts speaking about exit and tightening while the FED speaks about more QE
[16:59:13 06/08/10] Sauros : Long dax on austerity grounds i guess
[16:59:31 06/08/10] Batman : Yeah that is my logic more or less
[16:59:45 06/08/10] Snapman : to me technicals says week to week EUR needs a big correctin
[16:59:49 06/08/10] Batman : Besides Trichet is lame duck right now trying to protect his "inflation" record
[16:59:51 06/08/10] Sauros : i know we just have the opposite logics
[16:59:56 06/08/10] Snapman : logically that means a corr with short SPX and DAX
[17:00:40 06/08/10] Sauros : at the beginning of the year, i made big money long DAX, short SX5E
[17:00:49 06/08/10] Sauros : on the grounds of a weak EUR
[17:01:03 06/08/10] Snapman : jan?
[17:01:29 06/08/10] Sauros : but now IF the EUR is gonna to rally, I'd be short DAX long SPX
[17:01:58 06/08/10] Sauros : from Jan to June, that's where my +480% are
[17:02:01 06/08/10] Batman : I don't think the Eur will rally until October November
[17:02:15 06/08/10] Batman : Bond markets still support strong dollar
[17:02:16 06/08/10] Sauros : yep i said IF it rallies
[17:02:49 06/08/10] Sauros : my other thing is i've the opposite view on austerity vs growth
[17:03:05 06/08/10] Batman :
[17:03:35 06/08/10] green lantern : I agree with batman about the euro not rallying until october/november
[17:03:44 06/08/10] Sauros : i think austerity is too much for Europe, the good data we're seeing now is just the fruit of the weak EUR to me
[17:04:29 06/08/10] Snapman : For most of Aug EUR looks bear to me
[17:04:44 06/08/10] Sauros : agreed that EUR at some point should fall, if i'm right on the bad impact of austerity
[17:04:47 06/08/10] Snapman : i agree with you that pt sauros
[17:05:15 06/08/10] Snapman : Sauros was your holding period from Jan to June?
[17:05:18 06/08/10] Snapman : or were you in and out
[17:05:30 06/08/10] Sauros : in and out
[17:05:37 06/08/10] Snapman : ok
[17:05:43 06/08/10] Snapman : what was your genearl time frames?
[17:05:54 06/08/10] Sauros : very good timing : llong DAX in the rise, short SX5E in the fall
[17:06:08 06/08/10] Sauros : result 5x
[17:06:26 06/08/10] Sauros : i lost the timing after june
[17:06:43 06/08/10] Snapman : thats when the spreads really widened between teh two
[17:06:49 06/08/10] Sauros : actually i've plenty of trades in the same direction
[17:07:06 06/08/10] Sauros : with 1 or 2 ATR stops, last a few days or weeks
[17:07:17 06/08/10] Snapman : i see
[17:07:24 06/08/10] Snapman : you musta had real good timing then
[17:07:35 06/08/10] Snapman : quite impressive
[17:07:57 06/08/10] Snapman : did you adjust stops to trail or just left them?
[17:08:00 06/08/10] Sauros : you can see this like short term tactics in a longer term strategy
[17:08:19 06/08/10] Sauros : a bit special kind of trailing
[17:08:44 06/08/10] Sauros : actually I have 1 or 2 ATR stop
[17:09:27 06/08/10] Sauros : if i bank a profit, I'll wait and come back in the same position, bigger size with 1 or 2 ATR fixed stop too
[17:09:40 06/08/10] Snapman : ok
[17:09:41 06/08/10] Snapman : i see
[17:09:49 06/08/10] Snapman : thanks for sharing your strategy and style
[17:09:58 06/08/10] Sauros : so mechanically : I pyramid (add to my winners) and I trailed as the stop grows
[17:10:16 06/08/10] Sauros : stop is above the previous I mean
[17:10:23 06/08/10] Sauros : requires good timing
[17:10:27 06/08/10] Snapman : yep
[17:10:35 06/08/10] Snapman : what else was on our agenda ?
[17:10:40 06/08/10] Snapman : discuss for last 20 mins
[17:10:42 06/08/10] Batman : Credit
[17:10:42 06/08/10] green lantern : sauros, do you rely heavily on technicals? or is your strategy more mixed?
[17:11:01 06/08/10] Snapman : sauros likes candles lol
[17:11:24 06/08/10] green lantern : ok lol
[17:11:32 06/08/10] Snapman : i was just teasin him
[17:11:39 06/08/10] Sauros : yep TA
[17:11:40 06/08/10] Snapman : i see him write about candles from time to time in his blog
[17:11:44 06/08/10] Sauros : and candles
[17:12:01 06/08/10] Sauros : actually whatever i can find
[17:12:04 06/08/10] Snapman : TA = technical analysis
[17:12:05 06/08/10] Sauros : voodoo
[17:12:27 06/08/10] Snapman : but i mean a good portion of your rational is often fundmentally explained right?
[17:12:32 06/08/10] Mithrandir : so looks like cocoa is going to go through some interesting movements in the commodities market
[17:12:43 06/08/10] Sauros : actually macro-economics just give me the guidance for the global strategy
[17:12:49 06/08/10] Snapman : what have you been seeing in cocoa?
[17:13:05 06/08/10] Snapman : Sauros yo should start your own global macro hedge fund :p
[17:13:16 06/08/10] Snapman : or ucits or w/e is better these days in europe lol
[17:13:44 06/08/10] Sauros : my trading still relies on TA mainly
[17:14:02 06/08/10] Mithrandir : i was reading several articles on how the african cocao market is going to go through a period of reinvesting in trees because the current crop is reaching its terminal age
[17:14:07 06/08/10] Batman : Tits and Ass you mean?
[17:14:18 06/08/10] Mithrandir : this means that the production of beans in africa will go down
[17:14:19 06/08/10] Snapman : lol
[17:14:30 06/08/10] Mithrandir : for the next 5 years
[17:14:31 06/08/10] green lantern : lol
[17:14:38 06/08/10] Sauros : sure is there other meaning to TA
[17:14:44 06/08/10] Sauros : ?
[17:14:46 06/08/10] Snapman : Thats the type of talk that got thos GS traders scolded lol
[17:14:59 06/08/10] Snapman : urbanctionary.com
[17:15:06 06/08/10] Snapman : urbandictionary.com*
[17:15:08 06/08/10] Sauros : the SEC is reading our forums
[17:15:18 06/08/10] Mithrandir : haha
[17:15:22 06/08/10] Batman : lmao
[17:15:33 06/08/10] Sauros : I'm not allowed to "urbandictionary.com" at office
[17:15:42 06/08/10] Snapman : yes inside trading on the global macro scale lol
[17:15:48 06/08/10] Snapman : too bad
[17:15:49 06/08/10] Snapman :
[17:16:05 06/08/10] Snapman : how you gonna lerarn all the awesome americna slang to use at work then
[17:16:06 06/08/10] Snapman : haha
[17:16:11 06/08/10] Sauros : Credit ?
[17:16:18 06/08/10] Snapman : sure
[17:16:21 06/08/10] Batman : Banking and earnings
[17:16:33 06/08/10] Snapman : Who wants to start?
[17:16:36 06/08/10] Sauros : Earnings- C, JPM, BAC, HSBC, Goldman, Santandar, Credit Agricole Investment Bank ... Segway this into The overall global financial credit markets. WHo is borrowing money, Which industries are suffering due to lack of supply. Where are we seeing new businesses sprout up, and new credit related products/securities.
[17:16:51 06/08/10] Batman : INvestment banking has been getting killed, so I assume that Comercial retail and corporate banking are better
[17:17:14 06/08/10] Batman : Thus, we should see some small business loans
[17:17:16 06/08/10] Snapman : the thing is wiht commerical and retail banks… tehy are in the process of cleaning up their loan portfolios
[17:17:17 06/08/10] Sauros : that's what we observed
[17:17:20 06/08/10] Batman : Hence job creation
[17:17:22 06/08/10] Snapman : its gonna take a long time though
[17:17:39 06/08/10] Batman : Bank earnings have been good for some time now
[17:17:39 06/08/10] Snapman : i think job creation is gonna be real slow cuz of banking starndards and adjustments
[17:17:45 06/08/10] Snapman : on the comerical side
[17:17:49 06/08/10] Sauros : good results as well on reserves on bad loans and toxic assets
[17:17:51 06/08/10] Batman : Too much cash and cash equivalents on B/S
[17:18:08 06/08/10] Snapman : well have you guys heard about the secreit bailout money congress is putting aside for small banks?
[17:18:33 06/08/10] Snapman : does this mean anything to you guys?
[17:18:35 06/08/10] green lantern : is that part of the fin reg bill or something different?
[17:18:46 06/08/10] Snapman : its something diff i believe
[17:18:54 06/08/10] Snapman : i saw an article on it a few days ago
[17:18:58 06/08/10] Batman : Obamanomics: Create Obamabonds which consolidate small business and consumer credit and let the Private sector drive the growth if they are unwilling to make the loans outright themselves
[17:19:04 06/08/10] Mithrandir : i havn't heard or read anything about that, but it sounds like a good idea
[17:19:25 06/08/10] Snapman : you think so?
[17:19:32 06/08/10] Snapman : i mean doesn't htat hint of greater implications?
[17:19:33 06/08/10] Batman : yeah why not
[17:19:38 06/08/10] Snapman : like the financial systems are sitll not sound as we think?
[17:20:00 06/08/10] Snapman : im talking about the 20+ bill or so congress set aside as emergency many for small banks
[17:20:03 06/08/10] Snapman : or however much it was
[17:20:12 06/08/10] Batman : They are not sound, but having business growth helps bank receive revenues and more importantly deposits
[17:20:27 06/08/10] Mithrandir : yeah, small business are still really hurting
[17:20:35 06/08/10] Snapman : im talking about the money set a sid eby congress
[17:20:47 06/08/10] Mithrandir : and with the health care bill essentially being a farce things aren't much better or cheaper than they were before for small businesses
[17:20:49 06/08/10] green lantern : you might be right snapman. we should be asking why this is being done very quietly?
[17:20:49 06/08/10] Batman : i know
[17:21:01 06/08/10] Snapman : i odn't se eyour point then
[17:21:04 06/08/10] Snapman : its moeny not being used
[17:21:16 06/08/10] Snapman : its just there as a provision
[17:21:17 06/08/10] Batman : CRE will kill small regionals for the next 5 years
[17:21:45 06/08/10] Sauros : CRE could be next subprime
[17:21:53 06/08/10] Batman : another S and L crisis perhaps
[17:22:07 06/08/10] Snapman : So i guess this issue doesn't concern anyone?
[17:22:12 06/08/10] Sauros : all is in the house price
[17:23:09 06/08/10] Sauros : sorry snapman, i think i missed your point, not at my desk for a couple of minutes
[17:23:22 06/08/10] Sauros : let me scroll up a bit
[17:24:05 06/08/10] Sauros : I've not heard about the secret bailout fund, do you have an article ?
[17:25:41 06/08/10] green lantern : it seems like its a fund for small banks to use in order to loan out money to small businesses
[17:25:45 06/08/10] Mithrandir : here is an article on it
[17:25:47 06/08/10] green lantern : http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gop-blocks-30-bln-small-bank-bill-wants-add-ons-2010-07-29
[17:25:56 06/08/10] green lantern : is this it?
[17:25:58 06/08/10] Mithrandir : http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/08/01/community-bank-bailout-pr_n_666776.html
[17:26:42 06/08/10] Mithrandir : yeah you got it too dan
[17:26:50 06/08/10] Snapman : i see your point now before Pat
[17:26:53 06/08/10] Snapman : er batman
[17:26:59 06/08/10] green lantern : so is this a bailout thats not being called a bailout?
[17:27:03 06/08/10] Snapman : but i still dont' think the money will get filtered through so easily
[17:27:29 06/08/10] Snapman : banks may have the funds avaiable but their standards are way to high for current consumer
[17:27:36 06/08/10] Snapman : consumer credit quality is still poor as ever
[17:27:47 06/08/10] Sauros : the trouble is how can Obama justifiy it ? Do you think he'll be able to make the electors swallow the pill
[17:28:34 06/08/10] Batman : electors? what do you mean by this?
[17:28:54 06/08/10] Sauros : public i meant
[17:28:58 06/08/10] green lantern : it seems like he is justifying it by saying "this is relief for small businesses" and not another "bailout"
[17:28:59 06/08/10] Snapman : votee's?
[17:29:03 06/08/10] Batman : No
[17:29:20 06/08/10] Batman : Republicans will be back in the house and senate come Jan 1
[17:29:20 06/08/10] Snapman : huh?
[17:29:22 06/08/10] Sauros : sorry : French guy
[17:29:26 06/08/10] Snapman : oh
[17:29:26 06/08/10] Mithrandir : yeah that is a good point, people are very opposed to any increased spending, obama needs to make it clear how important it is
[17:29:50 06/08/10] Snapman : 1 min left
[17:29:57 06/08/10] Batman : The guy has not been a man of his word
[17:30:15 06/08/10] Snapman : i thnk people are getting weary of the fiscal spending though
[17:30:49 06/08/10] Batman : definately
[17:31:26 06/08/10] Sauros : so to end on the last topic, you guys think that he'll lose the elections?
[17:31:40 06/08/10] Snapman : 50/50
[17:31:51 06/08/10] Batman : no he'll win
[17:31:54 06/08/10] Mithrandir : i think he might, but i also think he can't for all our sakes
[17:31:59 06/08/10] green lantern : obama? depends on who runs against him
[17:31:59 06/08/10] Snapman : (i hate ib customer service)
[17:32:00 06/08/10] Batman : no good republican candidates
[17:32:11 06/08/10] Batman : no intellectuals in that party are leaders
[17:32:18 06/08/10] Mithrandir : no matter how much he hasn't lived up to the hype, hes far better than any other candidate both parties can currently present
[17:32:22 06/08/10] Batman : haha
[17:32:31 06/08/10] Snapman : good point about contenders
[17:32:35 06/08/10] green lantern : unless the republicans can get cooridinated an have a clear message, obama will win
[17:32:45 06/08/10] Sauros : to be frank, I'm bit too far from the US to have an opinion
[17:32:48 06/08/10] Mithrandir : true
[17:32:53 06/08/10] Snapman : but do you think there is a godo # of constiteuents that will just vote against him no matter what cuz tehy are pissed?
[17:32:56 06/08/10] Snapman : teapartyers?
[17:33:07 06/08/10] Batman : hurray sarah palin
[17:33:13 06/08/10] Mithrandir : ought to send them back to the UK
[17:33:14 06/08/10] Snapman : lol
[17:33:15 06/08/10] Snapman : exactly
[17:33:19 06/08/10] Snapman : hahaha
[17:33:36 06/08/10] Snapman : hilary gonna run?
[17:33:44 06/08/10] Mithrandir : naa
[17:33:52 06/08/10] Batman : no she looks like dog crap after china shut her down
[17:33:55 06/08/10] green lantern : nah
[17:34:07 06/08/10] Sauros : hillary's good at trading commos
[17:34:10 06/08/10] Batman : anyway lets finish
[17:34:15 06/08/10] Batman : haha
[17:34:18 06/08/10] Batman : yeah she is
[17:34:42 06/08/10] Sauros : OK let's finish
[17:34:46 06/08/10] Snapman : APPROVAL!!!!
[17:34:48 06/08/10] Snapman : HURRAH
[17:35:20 06/08/10] Snapman : gonna fund today
[17:35:20 06/08/10] Snapman :
[17:35:31 06/08/10] Snapman : FInallylyy
[17:35:34 06/08/10] Batman : Fantastic
[17:35:42 06/08/10] Snapman : geeze christ that aws an ordeal
[17:35:52 06/08/10] Snapman : they didnt' send confirmation cuz its overnight electronic systems need toupdate it
[17:35:55 06/08/10] Snapman : good thing i called
[17:36:07 06/08/10] Snapman : next we we up and running
[17:36:08 06/08/10] Batman : good thing
[17:36:17 06/08/10] Sauros : great
[17:36:18 06/08/10] Snapman : ok sorry for the distraction
[17:36:26 06/08/10] Snapman : any last questions or comments?
[17:36:28 06/08/10] Batman : Thanks for coming out everyone...Sauros it was a Pleasure
[17:36:35 06/08/10] Batman : Snapman
[17:36:39 06/08/10] Sauros : thanks to you all guys
[17:36:40 06/08/10] Batman : Green Latern
[17:36:42 06/08/10] Snapman : Agreed thanks ofr sharing your view as always
[17:36:45 06/08/10] Batman : Mith
[17:36:51 06/08/10] Snapman : thanks Green laterna and mith
[17:36:54 06/08/10] Snapman : time well spent
[17:37:05 06/08/10] Sauros : have a good week, may TLOT be with you!
[17:37:05 06/08/10] green lantern : Thanks everyone, enjoy your day
[17:37:15 06/08/10] Batman : Peace
[17:37:23 06/08/10] Mithrandir : bye bye








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Snapman

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PostSubject: Re: Weekly market Discussions   Tue Aug 10, 2010 1:20 am

Topics for Friday?
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PostSubject: Re: Weekly market Discussions   Tue Aug 10, 2010 10:33 am

Snapman wrote:
Topics for Friday?

I suggest we add a part on trading : technical analysis, trading systems, moeny management, etc".
We started a bit last week and I think it could be of interest.
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PostSubject: Re: Weekly market Discussions   Tue Aug 10, 2010 11:51 am

Sauros wrote:
Snapman wrote:
Topics for Friday?

I suggest we add a part on trading : technical analysis, trading systems, moeny management, etc".
We started a bit last week and I think it could be of interest.

Hmmm some introductions for Mith might be a good idea. He expressed interest in it in some of our morning discussions. Goggl is well on his way of becoming versed in his own technical analysis.

I don't mind exploring new ideas and systems as well, as well for money management… never been too versed in "traditional portfolio" construction/money management
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PostSubject: Re: Weekly market Discussions   Fri Aug 13, 2010 4:37 pm

AUG 13, 2010:

16:33:24 13/08/10] Sauros : hey quidproquo, welcome
[16:33:31 13/08/10] Snapman : we gonna wait for goggl before beginning
[16:33:35 13/08/10] quidproquo : Hello
[16:33:41 13/08/10] quidproquo : are we on the GMT time now ?
[16:33:41 13/08/10] Snapman : not sure if mith can join, and batman is taking a train back right now
[16:34:50 13/08/10] Snapman : well we might as well start i guess
[16:34:54 13/08/10] Snapman : small crowd today
[16:34:58 13/08/10] quidproquo : sure thing
[16:35:01 13/08/10] quidproquo : ^^
[16:35:05 13/08/10] Snapman : probably gog will come in late ill txt him in a bit
[16:35:14 13/08/10] Sauros : ok
[16:35:18 13/08/10] Snapman : so how are oyu doing sauros?
[16:35:21 13/08/10] Snapman : hows life on your end?
[16:35:42 13/08/10] Sauros : i haven't managed to set up an agenda for this week
[16:36:10 13/08/10] Sauros : well, i've got a bit burnt this week by the markets ...
[16:36:17 13/08/10] quidproquo : yeah
[16:36:18 13/08/10] Sauros : EURUSD
[16:36:24 13/08/10] quidproquo : it was a pretty wild ride
[16:36:35 13/08/10] Sauros : I really can't understand the move down
[16:36:49 13/08/10] Snapman : fundamentally don't bother in my opinion
[16:37:11 13/08/10] Snapman : my explaination would be that this whole move was inflated to begin with and people just started to unwind
[16:37:27 13/08/10] Snapman : what about you guys?
[16:37:35 13/08/10] quidproquo : well
[16:37:36 13/08/10] Sauros : stop gunning down, sounds obvious to me
[16:37:45 13/08/10] quidproquo : I think people were having this hope
[16:37:50 13/08/10] quidproquo : of the economy recovering
[16:37:58 13/08/10] Sauros : the whole world was bullish
[16:38:06 13/08/10] quidproquo : but with the last annauncement by Bernanke
[16:38:12 13/08/10] quidproquo : that hope was crushed for many
[16:38:34 13/08/10] Sauros : on tuesday before the FED, some guys started to short betting that it was an overreaction
[16:38:35 13/08/10] quidproquo : for the second time in 4 weeks the FED has downgraded their expectation of the recovery
[16:38:38 13/08/10] quidproquo : and the economy
[16:38:57 13/08/10] quidproquo : but then
[16:39:05 13/08/10] quidproquo : Sauros
[16:39:09 13/08/10] Sauros : yep but FED gave an hint for more QE
[16:39:23 13/08/10] quidproquo : I think it was as a result of the spike on monday
[16:39:30 13/08/10] quidproquo : when the market went up 2.7%
[16:39:32 13/08/10] quidproquo : for no reason
[16:40:03 13/08/10] Sauros : my understanding is after bad NFP, the market speculated that the FED would QE
[16:40:29 13/08/10] Sauros : on tuesday morning (Europe), some guys thought it was an overreaction
[16:40:44 13/08/10] Sauros : and then after the FED announcement, I'm lost
[16:41:10 13/08/10] Sauros : so for me, that's just triggers of stop losses
[16:41:32 13/08/10] Sauros : the whole world was bull
[16:41:46 13/08/10] Snapman : demand creates demand
[16:42:04 13/08/10] Snapman : there were just lots of bears in the market
[16:42:04 13/08/10] Sauros : the old good contrarian song
[16:42:06 13/08/10] Snapman : waiting
[16:42:09 13/08/10] Snapman : yea
[16:42:19 13/08/10] Snapman : just look at the put/call ratios
[16:42:27 13/08/10] Snapman : it was waiting to explode
[16:42:32 13/08/10] Sauros : my guess is still that in the sell order there were a lot of stop losses
[16:42:45 13/08/10] Snapman : i think we are around support leves now at least on the daily we gonna see some upside or sideways trading
[16:42:53 13/08/10] Snapman : last night was another big tank.. errr last morning
[16:42:57 13/08/10] Snapman : for you sauros
[16:43:00 13/08/10] Snapman : this mornng*
[16:43:01 13/08/10] Snapman : sorrry
[16:43:26 13/08/10] Gogol : Sorry I am late had some interweb issues
[16:43:44 13/08/10] Snapman : ive been trading intra day this week and it just seems that the europeans are the oens who are causing it to fall further
[16:43:48 13/08/10] Sauros : no worry, we're not at school
[16:43:54 13/08/10] Snapman : when euro markets open it just tanks
[16:44:09 13/08/10] quidproquo : but I am really in a lost why
[16:44:11 13/08/10] quidproquo : the Euro
[16:44:25 13/08/10] Snapman : maybe its mroe dollar realted
[16:44:30 13/08/10] Snapman : europen investors
[16:44:32 13/08/10] quidproquo : is something going on in Europe that is causing it that I don't know of
[16:44:35 13/08/10] Snapman : and their betting on the dollar
[16:44:37 13/08/10] Snapman : not so eurocentric
[16:44:52 13/08/10] Snapman : put it this way
[16:44:56 13/08/10] Sauros : today the growth figures in Europe
[16:45:01 13/08/10] quidproquo : do you guys think it might be investors returning to treasureis ?
[16:45:04 13/08/10] Snapman : earlier in year we saw lots of flight to quality with US equities rally
[16:45:11 13/08/10] Snapman : lots of capital came in to US escpialyl with sovergin debt crisies
[16:45:16 13/08/10] quidproquo : yields dropped yesterday significantly
[16:45:16 13/08/10] Snapman : they are holding lots of dollars
[16:45:17 13/08/10] Sauros : shows a big discrepancies
[16:45:25 13/08/10] Snapman : once dollar starts looing wry the euro invetsors start to sell it
[16:45:34 13/08/10] quidproquo : as people exited stock market and returned to the save have
[16:45:36 13/08/10] quidproquo : haven
[16:45:41 13/08/10] Snapman : well good reason to put breaks on the EUR/USD then
[16:45:57 13/08/10] Snapman : you mena the 10 year?
[16:45:59 13/08/10] Snapman : in UST
[16:46:03 13/08/10] Sauros : between Geemany and the other countries, makes the job tough for ECB
[16:46:34 13/08/10] Snapman : Pat said that had to do with new auction, but i didn' really understand the process of how taht works and why 10 yrs that were trading at 106 are now tradeing at a discount
[16:46:35 13/08/10] Sauros : the big winner of all this is the JPY... safe haven
[16:46:48 13/08/10] Snapman : indeed
[16:46:58 13/08/10] Snapman : but reflected in the currency for sure but not in their equties
[16:47:03 13/08/10] Snapman : past two months have been really disappointing
[16:47:17 13/08/10] Snapman : Nikkei also tanked along with the rest of the major indices
[16:47:41 13/08/10] Snapman : i think the JPY is mrore questionable imho, what do you think gogol?
[16:47:46 13/08/10] Sauros : i mean i think the strong JPY is very bearish for the Nikkei
[16:47:52 13/08/10] Snapman : i knwo you were trading it last night
[16:48:16 13/08/10] Snapman : yea but earnings hvve been so falt for japanese equities, i don't knwo the reason dind't look into it
[16:48:19 13/08/10] Sauros : the japanese don't control the strength of their currency
[16:48:26 13/08/10] Snapman : oh sorry mis read that sauros*
[16:48:35 13/08/10] Snapman : i thought you said opposite wiht strong JPY
[16:49:05 13/08/10] Sauros : no no, the strength of the Yen goes against them
[16:49:10 13/08/10] Snapman : its been policy for past 5 years not to intervene
[16:49:15 13/08/10] Snapman : yea i read it wrong sorry*
[16:49:27 13/08/10] Gogol : I am happy i stopped when I did the dollar was went way north last night
[16:49:35 13/08/10] Gogol : compared to the JPY
[16:49:44 13/08/10] Snapman : yea
[16:49:47 13/08/10] Sauros : the question now is whether they will intervene
[16:49:56 13/08/10] Snapman : i took profits at the right time on the EUR last night
[16:50:06 13/08/10] Snapman : to the upside before the big drop
[16:50:24 13/08/10] Sauros : you're lucky to survive
[16:50:27 13/08/10] Snapman : well I talked to the guy who reprsents japan on all financial matters for the ministry of finance and IMF
[16:50:37 13/08/10] Snapman : he says its current policy to no intervene
[16:50:45 13/08/10] Snapman : he says he thinks there is very small chance of hta thappening
[16:51:14 13/08/10] Sauros : do you talk to Bernanke too by any chance ???
[16:51:22 13/08/10] Snapman : lol
[16:51:24 13/08/10] Gogol : I dont see them doing that
[16:51:24 13/08/10] Snapman : well i know my freind
[16:51:34 13/08/10] Snapman : he workes for the ministry comptcontroller in DC
[16:51:34 13/08/10] Gogol : intervening is not really something they do
[16:51:50 13/08/10] Snapman : ben bernake apparently came down to the office discreetly to a farewell party for the head guy
[16:51:54 13/08/10] Sauros : the thing with the ministry of finance is they ALWAYS say they won't devaluate before they do
[16:51:57 13/08/10] Snapman : unfortuantly my firned dindn't get to say hi
[16:52:14 13/08/10] Snapman : wehn was the last time Europe did it?
[16:52:22 13/08/10] quidproquo : they want to keep the everyone optimistic as long as they can
[16:52:25 13/08/10] Snapman : early 2000's?
[16:52:36 13/08/10] Sauros : so if the USDJPY goes below 0.85
[16:53:10 13/08/10] Snapman : i know like in 2006 or 2007 there was thsi debate going on, same as this one, whether or not Japanese will intervene
[16:53:13 13/08/10] Snapman : never happend
[16:53:37 13/08/10] Sauros : what will happen ???
[16:53:59 13/08/10] Snapman : they in the same boat as rest of th world
[16:54:04 13/08/10] Snapman : slow painful recovery
[16:54:05 13/08/10] Gogol : Kan is in a terriable position
[16:54:21 13/08/10] Snapman : (i target .84)
[16:54:25 13/08/10] Sauros : yep but they have 2 decades of deflation before and they were on tehir own
[16:54:48 13/08/10] Snapman : they have a good history of expereince in these situations...
[16:55:10 13/08/10] Snapman : I guess its part of why their culture is super effcient
[16:55:12 13/08/10] Sauros : good history ? how did they get out ???
[16:55:39 13/08/10] Snapman : im just talkig about their economic history since their industrail revolution
[16:55:47 13/08/10] Snapman : they been in so many financila crsies
[16:55:51 13/08/10] Snapman : from the very beginning
[16:56:10 13/08/10] Gogol : is that good history then?
[16:56:22 13/08/10] Snapman : a good history meaning they have a long history of this...
[16:56:26 13/08/10] Snapman : not good as in doing well
[16:56:29 13/08/10] quidproquo : I think what Snapman means is
[16:56:40 13/08/10] quidproquo : they have a good experience facing such crisis
[16:56:42 13/08/10] Snapman : sorry americanisms
[16:56:45 13/08/10] quidproquo : and they can handle it better
[16:57:03 13/08/10] quidproquo : than other developed contries
[16:57:07 13/08/10] Snapman : well i left out the impliation if they can handle it better but just saying they been in rough spots before
[16:57:26 13/08/10] Snapman : its a common salient feature in thier history… is that more clear? sorry...
[16:57:29 13/08/10] Sauros : i see
[16:57:36 13/08/10] quidproquo : btw
[16:57:51 13/08/10] quidproquo : do you guys think the EUR/USD situation will remain on the same down side ?
[16:58:07 13/08/10] Sauros : to me, Japan's example shows that we still don't know how to fight deflation
[16:58:13 13/08/10] quidproquo : or the EUR will appreciate back
[16:58:41 13/08/10] quidproquo : Sauros, can you elaborate ?
[16:59:04 13/08/10] Sauros : to be frank, I'm a bit lost on the EURUSD now... I've to reassess the situation
[16:59:29 13/08/10] Snapman : on the technical side
[16:59:39 13/08/10] Snapman : it hasn't formed enough on daily charts to be a clear bull or bear
[16:59:41 13/08/10] Sauros : Japan was on deflation for 2 decades
[17:00:11 13/08/10] Sauros : they tried everything
[17:00:39 13/08/10] Sauros : finally it seems they got out, one year before the global crisis
[17:01:12 13/08/10] Sauros : to me this shows that the tools we have to fight deflation are now very efficient
[17:01:32 13/08/10] Snapman : its hard to say across the board
[17:01:34 13/08/10] Sauros : while we're slightly better to fight inflation I guess
[17:02:05 13/08/10] Sauros : to me. Japan is the weak link
[17:02:32 13/08/10] Snapman : i read some NBER papers and they point out that problems are unique and sepcific so any country that faces deflaiton will have to deal with it differently; as in you can see how the US has been handling the current crises vs. the Japaense has done int he past
[17:02:34 13/08/10] Sauros : here, without their control, the JPY hits highs
[17:02:38 13/08/10] quidproquo : so, do you believe the FED didn't do it job in trying to help restore the economy ?
[17:03:36 13/08/10] Sauros : actually I think the FED will make it, they just use all the tools developped by Japan, but all at the same time and they go big
[17:03:48 13/08/10] Gogol : isn't the US kind of modeling off of Japan though right now?
[17:04:33 13/08/10] quidproquo : if they remove their stimulus
[17:04:34 13/08/10] Sauros : i think bernanke has taken the lessons from japan
[17:04:37 13/08/10] quidproquo : they will be like Japan
[17:04:42 13/08/10] Snapman : their are nuaiancs on how they carried it out though, US balance sheet expansion wiht different assets, and Japan had only single assets i beleive
[17:04:50 13/08/10] Sauros : that's my point
[17:05:05 13/08/10] Snapman : i see what you mean then
[17:05:11 13/08/10] Sauros : this said, Japan is a bit specific as well
[17:05:19 13/08/10] Gogol : He took Intro to Japan crisis starategy in college
[17:05:29 13/08/10] Sauros : their culture includes a kind of fatalism
[17:05:53 13/08/10] Sauros : i guess he had an A
[17:06:03 13/08/10] quidproquo : that is why their population is saving for the doomsday
[17:06:04 13/08/10] quidproquo : lol
[17:06:21 13/08/10] Snapman : currrently they getting old
[17:06:23 13/08/10] Snapman : and dis-saving
[17:06:31 13/08/10] Sauros : and probably why they took so much time to get out
[17:06:33 13/08/10] Snapman : and fertiltiy rates have been in decline since god knwos when
[17:06:47 13/08/10] Snapman : savings is doomed since theri domestic population is highest consumers of jap govt bonds
[17:06:55 13/08/10] quidproquo : since you mentioned this
[17:07:21 13/08/10] Sauros : on that, have you read Krugman's "Return of Depression Economics" ?
[17:07:27 13/08/10] quidproquo : Japan and Western Europe are the two big are where demographic growth would be negative for the next 30-40 years
[17:07:57 13/08/10] Snapman : nope
[17:07:57 13/08/10] quidproquo : and it will cause great burden on their economy as a result
[17:07:59 13/08/10] Snapman : i wanted to buy it
[17:08:10 13/08/10] Snapman : but i bought a book on financial modelling instead for soem reason...
[17:08:11 13/08/10] Sauros : the chapter on Japan is a good introduction to the arsenal of tools to get out of Deflation : they tried everything
[17:08:34 13/08/10] Snapman : hmm
[17:08:38 13/08/10] Snapman : ill have to look into that
[17:08:45 13/08/10] Sauros : on the demographic point, the point of view of Bill Gross (in the crypt) is pretty interesting
[17:09:03 13/08/10] Snapman : what was the report titled?
[17:09:07 13/08/10] quidproquo : Sauros, from what I heard, the reason Japan failed was because they stopped their stimulus short
[17:09:18 13/08/10] quidproquo : they should have extended it
[17:09:30 13/08/10] quidproquo : and they could have exited much earlier
[17:09:33 13/08/10] Sauros : yes, too late, too small and stopped too early
[17:09:55 13/08/10] quidproquo : because they exited too early the private sector was unable to de-leverage
[17:09:57 13/08/10] Sauros : but the most important case when the stimulus was stopped short is the Great Depression
[17:10:12 13/08/10] quidproquo : which kept them in a position of great insolvency and indebtedness
[17:10:24 13/08/10] quidproquo : that created the vicious cycle
[17:10:25 13/08/10] Snapman : again ben bernake's thesis
[17:10:29 13/08/10] Snapman : haha
[17:11:12 13/08/10] quidproquo : it is interesting how ppl are crying out for tax cuts now
[17:11:13 13/08/10] Sauros : so once again Bernanke knows all this
[17:11:15 13/08/10] quidproquo : when at the same time
[17:11:25 13/08/10] quidproquo : they say that the US have to reduce its deficit
[17:11:56 13/08/10] Sauros : we're once again vack to the "growth vs austerity" debate
[17:12:15 13/08/10] quidproquo : what is your take on it ?
[17:12:16 13/08/10] quidproquo : "_
[17:12:19 13/08/10] quidproquo :
[17:12:47 13/08/10] Sauros : we should cut everything
[17:13:00 13/08/10] Gogol : What?
[17:13:04 13/08/10] quidproquo : hahaha
[17:13:08 13/08/10] quidproquo : and become Europeans ?
[17:13:09 13/08/10] quidproquo :
[17:13:09 13/08/10] Sauros : kidding
[17:13:35 13/08/10] quidproquo : you know, the way it is going
[17:13:50 13/08/10] Sauros : this said with the difference of growth between Germany and the others, I don't know how the ECB will cope
[17:14:17 13/08/10] Gogol : we should all just pretend that nothing is wrong
[17:14:17 13/08/10] Snapman : new instutional facilities maybe?
[17:14:41 13/08/10] quidproquo : I think U.S is going to hit 100% of GDP deficit in the next 10 years ...
[17:15:05 13/08/10] Snapman : you think the world is gonna stand for that as everyone else conitues to recovery?
[17:16:00 13/08/10] Gogol : I dont think they can logically do that
[17:16:34 13/08/10] quidproquo : sometimes you have no choice
[17:16:43 13/08/10] quidproquo : and the way things are going right now ....
[17:16:55 13/08/10] quidproquo : it starts small and when you get into the current it is hard to revert
[17:16:55 13/08/10] Sauros : the situation is pretty tricky...
[17:17:38 13/08/10] quidproquo : I am also even considering the safety of the U.S. treasuries
[17:17:38 13/08/10] Sauros : so what's your view on the markets on the short term, say next week ?
[17:17:53 13/08/10] Snapman : short equities
[17:18:04 13/08/10] Snapman : lots of commos corrected so id be long
[17:18:15 13/08/10] Snapman : FX… ----> ?
[17:18:18 13/08/10] Snapman : still assessing
[17:19:03 13/08/10] Sauros : me on my side, once again after this week I'm a bit lost, really have to think about it
[17:19:08 13/08/10] Sauros : so waiting
[17:19:37 13/08/10] Sauros : I was about to go back on my asian including Japan this week but i'm holding on now
[17:19:40 13/08/10] Snapman : sauros
[17:19:51 13/08/10] Snapman : do you understand the process of the 10 yr UST?
[17:19:58 13/08/10] Snapman : wiht the auctions
[17:20:13 13/08/10] Snapman : as why did we see 106 to 99 on the 10 year prices
[17:20:35 13/08/10] Snapman : wow eur is tanking hard as we speak
[17:20:49 13/08/10] Sauros : 1.2776
[17:21:00 13/08/10] Sauros : i've to look further for the auction
[17:21:07 13/08/10] Snapman : from 1.2815 thsi morning
[17:21:10 13/08/10] Sauros : i've no clue now
[17:21:13 13/08/10] Snapman : ok
[17:21:19 13/08/10] Snapman : ill ask batman later i guess
[17:21:43 13/08/10] Sauros : to me that's just an auction
[17:22:02 13/08/10] Sauros : but i can't explain the drop of price
[17:22:25 13/08/10] Snapman : yea
[17:22:30 13/08/10] Sauros : did you get the difference between what the FED did and standard QE ?
[17:22:37 13/08/10] Snapman : quid or gog?
[17:22:42 13/08/10] Snapman : views on market snext week?
[17:22:48 13/08/10] Gogol : I dont really get the Euro/USD right now
[17:22:50 13/08/10] Gogol : lol
[17:23:00 13/08/10] quidproquo : I think next week there might be a rally
[17:23:03 13/08/10] Sauros : nobody understands the EURUSD
[17:23:03 13/08/10] quidproquo : on the stock market
[17:23:17 13/08/10] Snapman : for the Fed and standard QE or whaever yo uwant to call it, i haven't really followed up on it, i just know mnior differnces*
[17:23:19 13/08/10] quidproquo : a short term one
[17:23:32 13/08/10] Sauros : I've talked to a FX analyst here (the guy you see on bloomberg) and he just told me that's unpredictable
[17:23:39 13/08/10] Snapman : lol
[17:23:43 13/08/10] Snapman : well everything is apparently
[17:23:45 13/08/10] quidproquo : and I expect an appreciation on the EUR against the USD
[17:24:09 13/08/10] Snapman : maybe is a good time to be in cash if you trading fx
[17:24:40 13/08/10] Sauros : that's my position : cash and Gilts
[17:24:45 13/08/10] quidproquo : Sauros
[17:24:58 13/08/10] quidproquo : I just saw you asked a question on the bid of the 10y
[17:25:17 13/08/10] quidproquo : you don't understand why ppl are bidding so high or what ?
[17:25:42 13/08/10] Sauros : i think the question on 10y comes from snapman
[17:26:15 13/08/10] Snapman : don't you think gilts are way over inflated?
[17:26:27 13/08/10] Gogol : Gilts are essentially like T-bonds right?
[17:26:29 13/08/10] Snapman : no
[17:26:34 13/08/10] Snapman : why did teh price go from 106 to 99
[17:26:43 13/08/10] Snapman : from a few days ago after the auction
[17:27:13 13/08/10] Sauros : Gilts are a bit UK's T-Bond
[17:27:18 13/08/10] Gogol : was that a no to me?
[17:27:25 13/08/10] Gogol : right
[17:27:27 13/08/10] quidproquo : I thin the price of bond went up
[17:27:34 13/08/10] Snapman : no for quid sorry
[17:27:43 13/08/10] quidproquo : because of higher demand
[17:27:57 13/08/10] Sauros : Gilts are my risk free
[17:28:02 13/08/10] quidproquo : and that is why we saw yields fell from 2.77% to 2.7%
[17:28:03 13/08/10] Snapman : yea i understand why its inflated
[17:28:07 13/08/10] Snapman : but im just saying its very very inflated
[17:28:34 13/08/10] Sauros : Basically what I understand is QE is FED buying some T-bonds
[17:29:32 13/08/10] Sauros : here in that case, FED uses proceeds from MBS so they don't expand their balance sheet
[17:30:04 13/08/10] Sauros : but to me, when they purchase from banks, they credit the sale proceeds to the bank's account
[17:30:24 13/08/10] Sauros : and the bank can lend x times what they have in their account at the FED
[17:31:40 13/08/10] Sauros : On Gilts, they're probably inflated, but as a monetary tool held short term, they're just fine
[17:33:36 13/08/10] Snapman : essentially it was the feds doing that prices dropped
[17:33:48 13/08/10] Snapman : ?
[17:33:58 13/08/10] Snapman : due to QE
[17:34:07 13/08/10] Snapman : ?
[17:34:18 13/08/10] Snapman : Hmm
[17:34:22 13/08/10] Snapman : maybe we can discuss htis next time
[17:34:24 13/08/10] Snapman : we are over the hour
[17:34:25 13/08/10] Snapman : already
[17:34:32 13/08/10] Sauros : actually, if FED purchases, the price should jump
[17:34:57 13/08/10] Sauros : and the yield drop
[17:35:01 13/08/10] Snapman : sorry
[17:35:08 13/08/10] Snapman : i mean sold
[17:35:15 13/08/10] Snapman : in the auction*
[17:35:30 13/08/10] Sauros : but in QE, the FED purchases
[17:36:11 13/08/10] Sauros : so probably the price of the 10Y drop as we know that FED will purchase back some T-bonds
[17:36:30 13/08/10] Sauros : does it make sense ?
[17:36:59 13/08/10] Snapman : not entirely but i think i get the idea
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Snapman

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Posts : 625
Join date : 2009-06-25
Age : 30
Location : New York City

PostSubject: Re: Weekly market Discussions   Fri Aug 20, 2010 4:37 pm

August 20, 2010:

Members Present:

gogol
snapman
batman
sauros

Topics:

EUR
THE FATE OF THE EU
COMMOS
JPY
ECONOMIC CURRENT EVENTS
LONG TERM VIEWS ON MARKTS


------

16:26:47 20/08/10] Snapman : hola
[16:27:20 20/08/10] Sauros : yo
[16:28:06 20/08/10] Snapman : how london treating you?
[16:28:30 20/08/10] Batman : whats up?
[16:28:45 20/08/10] Snapman : We all here i guess we should start?
[16:29:02 20/08/10] Sauros : very quiet week actually
[16:29:16 20/08/10] Sauros : yep let's start
[16:29:23 20/08/10] Snapman : ok
[16:30:05 20/08/10] Sauros : zero-trade week, actually since last week I don't understand what happens so I stay aside
[16:30:21 20/08/10] Sauros : SPX?
[16:30:28 20/08/10] Snapman : i ended up playing the daily charts
[16:30:32 20/08/10] Snapman : up to you guys
[16:30:49 20/08/10] Sauros : you become a day-trader
[16:30:56 20/08/10] Snapman : nah
[16:31:00 20/08/10] Snapman : i left them overnight
[16:31:05 20/08/10] Snapman : the past 3-4 days
[16:31:18 20/08/10] Snapman : I mean i was trading based off daily charts
[16:31:28 20/08/10] Sauros : ah, actually I almost use only the daily
[16:31:31 20/08/10] Snapman : I don't have much capital in my forex account so its hard to make lots of money if i don't trade alot
[16:31:38 20/08/10] Snapman : yea most traders recommend that
[16:32:01 20/08/10] Snapman : for me if i use high leverage and daily charts i often get stopped out to early cuz i need tight stops
[16:32:07 20/08/10] Sauros : actually hourly for the execution, daily for the position
[16:32:09 20/08/10] Snapman : or maybe I should learn to risk more
[16:32:33 20/08/10] Sauros : what leverage do you use ?
[16:32:59 20/08/10] Snapman : well 100:1, but on mini lots, but i mimick standard lots sometimes and buy 10 lots of minis
[16:33:12 20/08/10] Sauros : and what's your typical capital at risk on the EURUSD ?
[16:33:26 20/08/10] Sauros : in % of your equity I mean
[16:33:31 20/08/10] Snapman : you mean my usable margin?
[16:33:38 20/08/10] Snapman : oh ok
[16:33:57 20/08/10] Sauros : i mean if you're stopped, how much % of your equity you lose ?
[16:34:02 20/08/10] Snapman : about 1-2%
[16:34:09 20/08/10] Snapman : but since its small capital thats a lot for me lol
[16:34:27 20/08/10] Sauros : so that's not that high leverage
[16:34:38 20/08/10] Snapman : haha relatively speaking
[16:34:41 20/08/10] Snapman : yea its not crazy
[16:34:43 20/08/10] Snapman : or anything
[16:34:49 20/08/10] Snapman : i saw some forex playform that had 500:1
[16:34:52 20/08/10] Snapman : thats just insane
[16:34:57 20/08/10] Sauros : typically how many pips ur stop is at on the EURUSD ?
[16:34:58 20/08/10] Snapman : platform*
[16:35:05 20/08/10] Snapman : ive been doing 1 ATR
[16:35:10 20/08/10] Sauros : forexpro proposes 1000:1
[16:35:13 20/08/10] Snapman : or 10 pips or so
[16:35:32 20/08/10] Sauros : 1 ATR on the hourly ?
[16:35:40 20/08/10] Snapman : unfortunately i odn't have millions to make moeny thousands off 1 pip lool
[16:35:48 20/08/10] Snapman : yes
[16:35:49 20/08/10] Snapman : on the hourly
[16:35:59 20/08/10] Gogol : Hey
[16:36:04 20/08/10] Snapman : ive been debating if thats good for me or not
[16:36:07 20/08/10] Snapman : hey gog
[16:36:09 20/08/10] Sauros : mmmh 10 pips on the EURUSD go fast
[16:36:12 20/08/10] Sauros : hey
[16:36:15 20/08/10] Snapman : yea
[16:36:21 20/08/10] Snapman : which why I had much shorter tiem fraems
[16:36:23 20/08/10] Snapman : less thana day
[16:36:29 20/08/10] Snapman : like trading on the 8 hour
[16:36:46 20/08/10] Snapman : on the daily charts if im trading them i leave them much wider
[16:36:49 20/08/10] Sauros : 10 pips could be less than 1 minute
[16:36:56 20/08/10] Snapman : yep
[16:37:06 20/08/10] Snapman : but i haven't used that really yet
[16:37:09 20/08/10] Snapman : mostly 1 -2 art
[16:37:10 20/08/10] Snapman : ATR
[16:37:16 20/08/10] Sauros : but at that level, you don't need economic analysis
[16:37:24 20/08/10] Snapman : the thing is i left a 2 ATR stop over night once… i was right on the intial move, but then tanked super hard
[16:37:32 20/08/10] Snapman : lost a lot on such a wide stop
[16:38:33 20/08/10] Sauros : for the EURUSD I could have stop up to 500 pips
[16:38:34 20/08/10] Snapman : reading some fx forums people are targeting 1.23 - 1.24 EUR
[16:38:58 20/08/10] Snapman : yea
[16:39:05 20/08/10] Snapman : for me if i use 10 minis
[16:39:10 20/08/10] Snapman : that would wipe out like 90% of my capital
[16:39:10 20/08/10] Sauros : actually I start thinking that the EUR is doomed
[16:39:14 20/08/10] Snapman : if im wrong
[16:39:24 20/08/10] Snapman : really im quite bullish
[16:39:26 20/08/10] Snapman : long term
[16:39:29 20/08/10] Snapman : into 2011
[16:40:02 20/08/10] Sauros : me it's more long term for the EUR
[16:40:16 20/08/10] Snapman : longer than like 2 quarters?
[16:40:30 20/08/10] Sauros : there's too much discrepancies between Germany and PIGS
[16:40:43 20/08/10] Sauros : how do you want the ECB to control that ?
[16:40:52 20/08/10] Snapman : anyone thing germany can help raise the pigs or the pigs gnna drag down all of Europe?
[16:41:04 20/08/10] Sauros : they should raise the rates but at the same time they should keep them low....
[16:41:18 20/08/10] Snapman : yea
[16:41:27 20/08/10] Snapman : they need something like the US treasury i guess
[16:41:38 20/08/10] Sauros : that's the thing
[16:41:46 20/08/10] Sauros : but politically, it's tough
[16:42:27 20/08/10] Snapman : any thoughts on this guys?
[16:42:29 20/08/10] Batman : this would all be much easier if Eastern Europe refrained from political corruption and joined the Euro currency...Eastern European countries would bolster export driven growth dramatically
[16:43:27 20/08/10] Gogol : Wouldn't adding countries like Hungary and say the Ukraine hurt the Euro more
[16:43:46 20/08/10] Batman : If they had stable governments no
[16:44:04 20/08/10] Gogol : "If" they had stable goverements
[16:44:16 20/08/10] Batman : thats the prerequisite
[16:44:28 20/08/10] Snapman : weren't there some issues with Hungarian Debt issuance recently?
[16:44:29 20/08/10] Sauros : I'd tend to agree Gogol's point of view
[16:44:40 20/08/10] Gogol : and if Russia wasn't always holding a knife to their back
[16:45:06 20/08/10] Sauros : the discrepancies are already too wide
[16:45:18 20/08/10] Snapman : The russian dynamic makes that feasbility harder for sure.
[16:45:41 20/08/10] Batman : but of coarse
[16:46:04 20/08/10] Sauros : the Euro is a kind of average of the members
[16:46:07 20/08/10] Snapman : So would you suggest there is strong risk the european union will break up down the road? Or just stagnate and suffer from these large discrepancies?
[16:46:25 20/08/10] Gogol : I mean if they have good goverment/economy it dosnt matter if they are EU
[16:46:32 20/08/10] Gogol : or on the Euro rather
[16:46:35 20/08/10] Sauros : i'd suggest more a collapse
[16:46:48 20/08/10] Gogol : they could still be better potential areas for exports
[16:46:52 20/08/10] Snapman : Yea @gog, i think that is the UK's view, which is why the opted out of the EU for so long.
[16:47:18 20/08/10] Batman : It deffenateley matters if they are on the euro
[16:47:21 20/08/10] Sauros : "thanks" to Soros in 92
[16:47:29 20/08/10] Snapman : I dunno I find that this EU is more instutionally rooted, you really think france can go back to francs and germany back to marks?
[16:48:04 20/08/10] Gogol : Hey they should have taken Turkey when they had the chance
[16:48:17 20/08/10] Sauros : Germany (and France) have benefited with the EUR of a "weak" currency
[16:48:36 20/08/10] Snapman : Turkey is a great financial center and relatively stable, I could agree with @gog
[16:49:08 20/08/10] Snapman : Isn't it possible then this weak currency can be the solution to getting out of the mess @sauros?
[16:49:29 20/08/10] Sauros : Spain, Greece, have benefited of a currency that allowed them to issue some debt with a low spread, which they use massively
[16:49:52 20/08/10] Snapman : Yea, I think this type of reasoning tends to make me more bullish at least.
[16:50:08 20/08/10] Batman : Trade flows, loans, and cost of living destroy countries that operate in the EU without the EUro
[16:50:26 20/08/10] Sauros : you know my point on currency, I've been long DAX thanks to the weak EUR all the beginning of this year
[16:50:32 20/08/10] Snapman : Thats a very good point @batman
[16:50:56 20/08/10] Sauros : and now German's figures reflect the benefit of a weak currency
[16:51:19 20/08/10] Snapman : I think your strategy really worked out well since this is a recessionary/crises environmnet
[16:51:33 20/08/10] Sauros : but now, how the PIGS can follow ?
[16:51:59 20/08/10] Batman : Great post on Spanish debt Sauros
[16:52:18 20/08/10] Batman : Barca and Catalonia and Madrid can't raise capital in the debt markets
[16:52:49 20/08/10] Sauros : Now the German is tightening, which is normal, but I think the PIGS can't afford this yet
[16:53:55 20/08/10] Batman : probably not
[16:54:06 20/08/10] Batman : We have a new ECB president on the Way in January
[16:54:15 20/08/10] Batman : Maybe an Italian Maybe a German
[16:54:37 20/08/10] Batman : Trichet is obssessed with his inflation record
[16:54:37 20/08/10] Sauros : probably Weber, the guy from the Bundesbank, we'll see
[16:54:43 20/08/10] Snapman : The discrepencies you talk about are certainly attriable to the recent weak EUR you are seeing. Though I get the feeling that if Germany and other euro countries can continue to benefit from exports, it can lead to a recovery in the region as confidence returns slowly
[16:55:06 20/08/10] Snapman : i mean maybe my time frame is off
[16:55:09 20/08/10] Sauros : true, but the German are very biased in tehir fear of inflation ... History
[16:55:12 20/08/10] Snapman : and it will take a lot longer than i think
[16:55:24 20/08/10] Snapman : Yea batman makes a good point if the germans get in
[16:55:27 20/08/10] Snapman : or even the itallitans
[16:55:28 20/08/10] Batman : It will be critical for PIGS to restructure and reform as the brits have done
[16:55:33 20/08/10] Snapman : you think tha twil strong affect monetary plicy?
[16:55:42 20/08/10] Snapman : as head of the ECB
[16:55:52 20/08/10] Snapman : i agree with you batman
[16:55:58 20/08/10] Snapman : i think austerity will be really cretical
[16:56:03 20/08/10] Snapman : if done correctly with the weak eur
[16:56:06 20/08/10] Snapman : it can be positive
[16:56:25 20/08/10] Snapman : weather it is fesablie becasue of descripencys im not to sure...
[16:56:30 20/08/10] Sauros : we're talking more for the long run here
[16:58:16 20/08/10] Snapman : So sorry If I didn't get this, so mainly you are long term bear on EUR because you think country differences such as the pigs can't be resolved?
[16:58:52 20/08/10] Sauros : you're right snapman, that's a view i start building
[16:59:02 20/08/10] Snapman : ok
[16:59:12 20/08/10] Gogol : Is there a clause that allows them to cut countries out of using the Euro?
[17:00:58 20/08/10] Sauros : I don't think so, but actually new currencies, pegs, gold standard are things that historically change more often than what we believe
[17:01:04 20/08/10] Snapman : lagg
[17:01:15 20/08/10] Batman : The Mastricht treaty would need to dissolve
[17:02:03 20/08/10] Sauros : I don't know for you but my chatbox is really lagging today
[17:02:24 20/08/10] Gogol : I have serious lag!!!!
[17:02:53 20/08/10] Batman : same
[17:03:13 20/08/10] Snapman : same
[17:03:38 20/08/10] Sauros : let's try to keep on a bit, if it's not sustainable, we'll end the chat
[17:04:16 20/08/10] Snapman : I don't know about a clause, but I know if you don't meet certain # of requirements you can't be in the EU, I figured if you fail to meet them over time after admittance they can kick you out?
[17:04:18 20/08/10] Sauros : any colors on the markets guy for the next week ?
[17:04:38 20/08/10] Snapman : colors?
[17:04:47 20/08/10] Gogol : hahaha
[17:04:50 20/08/10] Sauros : views ?
[17:04:57 20/08/10] Snapman : oh
[17:05:02 20/08/10] Batman : Volume will pick up
[17:05:10 20/08/10] Sauros : lag looks better
[17:05:16 20/08/10] Gogol : yeah
[17:05:28 20/08/10] Batman : also you know bonds are in a bubble when bulls and bears argue its a bubble its not a bubble
[17:05:33 20/08/10] Snapman : strong dollar into mid week/ bearish equities/ bear on crude into first half next week
[17:05:47 20/08/10] Snapman : volume has been dead for so long….
[17:05:57 20/08/10] Snapman : big move coming!
[17:06:07 20/08/10] Batman : flash crash part duex
[17:06:13 20/08/10] Snapman : hahaha
[17:06:23 20/08/10] Snapman : ohhhh i want to get in on one ofthe stocks when its close to zero
[17:06:26 20/08/10] Batman : i hope to be short spx on that day
[17:06:30 20/08/10] Sauros : agreed on the big move, but not sure about the direction
[17:06:55 20/08/10] Batman : whats the DAX looking like?
[17:06:58 20/08/10] Sauros : actually if you were short the flash crash day, you wouldn't profit that much
[17:07:00 20/08/10] Snapman : hehe
[17:07:04 20/08/10] Snapman : down with equities!
[17:07:16 20/08/10] Snapman : gold… man thats going straight back to 1260's range
[17:07:31 20/08/10] Sauros : yep gold
[17:07:44 20/08/10] Gogol : yeah is on the rise for sure!
[17:07:47 20/08/10] Sauros : euro tanking, USD tanking : gold!
[17:08:36 20/08/10] Sauros : EURUSD below 1.27 now
[17:08:37 20/08/10] Batman : why do you say that, if u were short before the session, prices closed much lower you could cover the next session
[17:09:00 20/08/10] Sauros : bid-offers were huge
[17:09:31 20/08/10] Gogol : And corn lol
[17:09:37 20/08/10] Snapman : the window of opportunity was only a few mins
[17:09:47 20/08/10] Sauros : panic mode then
[17:09:57 20/08/10] Snapman : oh
[17:09:58 20/08/10] Sauros : but for sure, all the longs were stopped
[17:10:01 20/08/10] Snapman : i read some interesting stuf fabout corn
[17:10:12 20/08/10] Batman : yeah but if you held yourposition you could have even profitted on monday
[17:10:15 20/08/10] Snapman : any bulls or bears on corn?
[17:10:25 20/08/10] Batman : prices moved much lower overall
[17:10:40 20/08/10] Sauros : you would have made a profit for sure but not the 1000 points
[17:10:48 20/08/10] Batman : no
[17:10:52 20/08/10] Snapman : yea, i think relative to the trading range of the crash it was relatively "not much"
[17:10:56 20/08/10] Batman : that is ridiculous profits
[17:11:18 20/08/10] Batman : i dont know indicies traded much lower for the next week
[17:11:42 20/08/10] Sauros : i know a few shorts then, no one became rich
[17:12:31 20/08/10] Sauros : i know a few longs too, all broke
[17:13:08 20/08/10] Snapman : all in a days work
[17:13:15 20/08/10] Snapman : myles what you know about corn?
[17:13:18 20/08/10] Snapman : besides making moonshine
[17:13:19 20/08/10] Snapman : lol
[17:14:03 20/08/10] Gogol : hahaha
[17:14:20 20/08/10] Gogol : I know that China has started to buy serious amounts of US corn
[17:14:27 20/08/10] Gogol : it was at a 16yr high
[17:15:08 20/08/10] Gogol : also Minnesota corn yield is projected to drop
[17:15:10 20/08/10] Snapman : yea, with russia hoarding their wheat corn is a good alternative maize
[17:15:17 20/08/10] Gogol : because of wet weather
[17:15:23 20/08/10] Snapman : yea
[17:15:27 20/08/10] Snapman : the scorching heat
[17:15:31 20/08/10] Snapman : has been real bad on yields
[17:15:33 20/08/10] Snapman : or projected yields
[17:15:38 20/08/10] Snapman : gonna squeeze supply
[17:15:44 20/08/10] Gogol : which is the 4th biggest area in the US
[17:16:56 20/08/10] Snapman : well anyone wnat to discuss anyhting else?
[17:17:21 20/08/10] Gogol : I think this could drive up prices
[17:17:47 20/08/10] Sauros : how are doing commos ? I've not been following
[17:17:48 20/08/10] Gogol : wheat, soybean, and corn all up
[17:18:25 20/08/10] Snapman : i think overall benefited past months from the weak dollar
[17:18:31 20/08/10] Snapman : if im not mistaken
[17:19:50 20/08/10] Sauros : but now the dollar is strengthening (to EUR at least) ?
[17:19:51 20/08/10] Snapman : any commos sector in particlar you intersted in?
[17:20:23 20/08/10] Sauros : no actually I was just curious, because I've not been following
[17:20:48 20/08/10] Sauros : maybe we could end with a word on Japan and JPY ?
[17:21:01 20/08/10] Snapman : sure
[17:21:09 20/08/10] Snapman : whast on your mind?
[17:21:17 20/08/10] Snapman : i know gog has some stuff ot say he been tradng it as well
[17:21:58 20/08/10] Sauros : how Japan can cope with a USDJPY at 85?
[17:22:14 20/08/10] Sauros : do you think they will intervene ?
[17:22:44 20/08/10] Batman : us no way
[17:22:48 20/08/10] Batman : Japan maybe
[17:22:57 20/08/10] Snapman : I think they will manage, Im bear on Yen long term
[17:23:09 20/08/10] Batman : Exporters are getting crushed
[17:23:10 20/08/10] Gogol : no Japan won't intervene
[17:23:16 20/08/10] Snapman : I don't think they will intervene but its been generating tons of buzz these days
[17:23:24 20/08/10] Snapman : i think people jus tlike to fancy the idea
[17:23:30 20/08/10] Snapman : cuz historically they are known for this
[17:23:34 20/08/10] Gogol : have they ever intervened?
[17:23:38 20/08/10] Batman : INtervention can just simply mean tough talk
[17:23:48 20/08/10] Batman : they did this recently maybe 1 year ago
[17:23:55 20/08/10] Batman : yen went back up to 95 96
[17:24:03 20/08/10] Snapman : i mean fiscally they can intervene but like how they used to in the past
[17:24:28 20/08/10] Snapman : past 5 years im pretty sure they haven't intervene
[17:24:47 20/08/10] Snapman : but you are right tough talk can drive it back up
[17:24:50 20/08/10] Snapman : which is what id be betting on
[17:25:06 20/08/10] Sauros : so if they don't intervene, Nikkei will tank right ?
[17:25:28 20/08/10] Gogol : if it continues to rise
[17:25:47 20/08/10] Sauros : the thing is I'm not sure what 85 means for Japan
[17:25:51 20/08/10] Batman : yup
[17:26:18 20/08/10] Sauros : can they sustain these levels ?
[17:26:29 20/08/10] Batman : Less tourism , less exports, more consumption
[17:27:05 20/08/10] Sauros : more consumption could be a good thing
[17:27:13 20/08/10] Snapman : They've seen 85 before historically
[17:27:17 20/08/10] Batman : could be
[17:27:24 20/08/10] Batman : global rebalancing
[17:27:26 20/08/10] Snapman : i think in the 90's or early 2000's not sure
[17:28:07 20/08/10] Gogol : Two cabinet ministers on Friday called on the central bank to tackle the yen, which last week surged to a 15-year high of Y84.72 against the US dollar.
[17:28:48 20/08/10] Sauros : 80 in 1994
[17:29:03 20/08/10] Sauros : but at that time they really were in the hole
[17:29:28 20/08/10] Sauros : 1995 sorry
[17:29:55 20/08/10] Sauros : what's ur "long" term view on Japan ?
[17:30:33 20/08/10] Batman : Great outlook especially because of their geographical location
[17:30:46 20/08/10] Batman : China, India, Vietnam Korea
[17:30:52 20/08/10] Batman : russia
[17:31:11 20/08/10] Snapman : politically they do well with the ASEAN they invest a lot in these emerging countries
[17:31:16 20/08/10] Snapman : help with inftrastucture
[17:31:18 20/08/10] Batman : many new trading opportunities
[17:31:23 20/08/10] Snapman : I definitley have a postive outlook as well
[17:31:39 20/08/10] Gogol : I completly agree with Batman
[17:31:49 20/08/10] Snapman : plus they been in such a rut for a long time and have lots of room to improve in the next decade
[17:32:01 20/08/10] Gogol : ASEAN is huge for Japan, that is going to save them
[17:32:36 20/08/10] Snapman : 2 min past
[17:32:40 20/08/10] Snapman : closing?
[17:32:57 20/08/10] Snapman : i can't find that 7 year analysis i did on indices
[17:33:02 20/08/10] Snapman : do any of you guys have it still?
[17:33:15 20/08/10] Sauros : yep, i've to look further to Japan
[17:33:25 20/08/10] Batman : i have it
[17:33:42 20/08/10] Snapman : ah nvm i found it
[17:33:42 20/08/10] Sauros : i'm interested
[17:33:45 20/08/10] Snapman : i saved on my harddrive
[17:33:53 20/08/10] Snapman : its mroe of notes to give context
[17:34:13 20/08/10] Sauros : great guys, it's time to close ?
[17:34:21 20/08/10] Snapman : yep
[17:34:44 20/08/10] Sauros : thanks guys, it was quite interesting
[17:34:47 20/08/10] Snapman : good discussion guys
[17:34:51 20/08/10] Gogol : Its been fun gents
[17:34:58 20/08/10] Sauros : Have a great week!
[17:35:05 20/08/10] Snapman : enjoy the weeknd
[17:35:16 20/08/10] Sauros : and may TLofT be with you
[17:35:25 20/08/10] Snapman :
[17:35:28 20/08/10] Snapman : merci
[17:35:35 20/08/10] Batman : peace
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