AUD/USD Weekly Outlook

AUD/USD Weekly Outlook

AUD/USD rose further to as high as 1.0496 last week but formed a short term top there on bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD and retreated. Initial bias is neutral this week for some consolidation. But near term outlook stays mildly bearish as long as 1.0343 minor support holds. Above 1.0496 will extend the rebound from 1.0115 to retest 1.0597/0624 resistance next. However, break of 1.0343 will mix up the near term outlook and will turn focus back to 1.0115 support instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1079 high are treated as a consolidation pattern in the larger up trend, in form of a triangle. There is no clear sign of breakout yet. But in case of another fall, downside should be contained above 0.9588. Meanwhile, break of 1.0624 will be an early sign of up trend resumption and should bring retest of 1.1079 high next.

In the longer term picture, whole up trend from 0.4773 (01 low) extended to a point where it just missed 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084. At this point, there is still prospect for a lengthier medium term consolidation. But there is no indication of long term reversal yet. We'll stay bullish as long as 0.8066 support holds and expect an eventual break of 1.1084 to 138.2% projection at 1.3023, which is close to 1.3 psychological level, in the long term.