USD/CHF Weekly Outlook

USD/CHF Weekly Outlook

USD/CHF failed to break through 0.9566 and the subsequent breach of 0.9471 minor support argues that consolidation from 0.9566 might extend further. Initial bias is neutral this week first. Below 0.9465 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 0.9352 and below. After all, rise from 0.9021 is viewed as the second leg of the sideway pattern from 0.9971. Another rally is expected after the consolidation from 0.9566 has completed, to 61.8% retracement of 0.9971 to 0.9021 at 0.9608 and above.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.7065 is viewed as a corrective move and should have completed after hitting 0.9916 resistance (61.8% retracement of 1.1730 to 0.7065 at 0.9948). Current development suggests that price action from there are developing into a sideway pattern. Retest of 0.9971 could be seen but we won't turn bullish until sustained break there. Otherwise, we're prefer at least one more fall before pattern from 0.9971 completes.

In the longer term picture, current development argues that price actions from 0.9971 are corrective in nature, which in turn implies that medium term rise from the 0.7065 is not finished yet. And, note that break of 0.9971 will also have 55 months EMA firmly taken out and would be a strong indication of completion of the down trend from 1.8305 (2000 high). We'll see the rise fro 0.7065 develop into before taking a bullish stance.