The iPad Arbitrage

http://blog.thelordoftrading.com/2012/06/ipad-arbitrage.html

Anonymous wrote:

really u agree with SOROS?

Well, yeah, I'd tend to agree with his arguments in this article for example : http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2011/08/12/germany-must-defend-the-euro/ and I know (see the comments after the article) that they are controversial. I fully understand that it can be not acceptable in German opinion's eyes to bail out lazy cheating Greeks, but actually what to be understood is it's German economy which is at stake here, along with the Global economy. Nobody wants to pay for bloody lazy cheaters, believe me.

The Euro designers intentionally put the cart before the horse when they launched the currency while the unification was incomplete. They argued "Let's start it and we'll see later" and Maastricht treaty was supposed to be the very first step to an evolutive construction process. Merkel's decision in 2008, along with German tendency to consider Maastricht as written in stone, broke that, de-unified the Euro-zone and created divergences i/o convergence and to me that led to a large extent to the current crisis.

IMHO the German people has not been explained clearly the benefits of Euro for Germany and the consequences for the country should the single currency breaks. First, back to more than 2 decades ago, the re-unification of the two "Germanies" could be only achieved in the European unification environment granted by the Euro project, that is precisely the one rejected now. Second, to me Germany benefited the most from the single currency, it notably allowed it to be in the top exporters ranks. I believe the consequences of a collapse of the Euro (likely now, may be too late) would really be disastreous for the country. Germany has just got a first class ticket on the Titanic : only a few survived, all got wet. Merkel knows all that 10,000 times better than any of us possibly can, she's the German chancellor, I'm just a guy trading and her procrastination to act is fully political to me. She doesn't want to displease the voters -which is not necessary a good political strategy, that's what killed Sarkozi, we'll see for Obama- and has taken the decision they want to hear instead of informing them on the situation as it really is. That procrastination reminds me of the procrastination to cut a growing loss in a trading position. Most of the time the market comes back in your direction, until the day it doesn't and wipes you out. I'm afraid that day may arrive soon for the Euro and I sincerely hope I'm wrong.